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It’s February and the stretch drive to the NCAA Men’s tournament is under way. For the 9th season, I bring you the Sheet of Speculation on the NCAA tournament. Call it the Spec Sheet for short. From now until NCAA selection show on March 17th, I will speculate on who I think will fill the 68 slots for the NCAA tourney. I don’t worry much about seeding; it’s who I think will get in. For right now, the teams are classified into two groups. Solid teams are on good track to make the tourney, and Work to do are teams that have a good shot but need to buff up their respective resumes to see their names among the chosen ones.
Atlantic Coast
(Conference Class-Power)
Solid: Miami Duke, North Carolina State,
Work to do: North Carolina, Virginia
Skinny on the ACC: Miami is the bully on the block this year, ask Duke who went to Coral Gables and got housed, ask NC who had the Canes come into the Dean Dome and dominate. Now ask NC State who lost a thrilling duel in Raleigh. The Canes are for real and it the Heels and Cavs who are scrambling for credibility.
Key Game: Virginia at Maryland Sunday 1p The Terps lack a quality win and the Cavs are needing to put some distance between them and a middling ACC pack
Projected Bids: 5
Atlantic Ten
Conference Class-Mid Major
Solid: Va. Commonwealth, Butler
Work to do: Charlotte, Saint Louis, LaSalle
The A-10 Spec is: The two newcomers in the conference are highly enjoying being the bully. The Bulldogs are ranked and the Rams should be. I think that they are solid for the tourney. Now the Niners, Billikens and Explorers might have something to say about this but the latter three need to keep banking wins to bulk their resume
Key Games: Va. Commonwealth at Charlotte. Saturday 7p The Rams will find out how dangerous a road venue Halton Arena is. The Niners who have tourney aspirations themselves would love to take the Rams down and bulk their own resume in the process.
Projected Bids: 2
Big East
Conference Class-Power
Solid: Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Pitt
Work to do: St. Johns, Villanova
Big East Skinny: The Big East is having a nice last hurrah. The Cuse, Cards, Bearcats, Hoyas Iris, Golden Eagles and Panthers are on solid ground. Yes that is seven teams out the box. As of right now, it’s the haves and have nots in this conference. All the teams that I mentioned are ranked. UConn is only playing spoiler, since they are banned from the tourney this year. Most teams have to avoid taking dumb losses as the Bearcats did on Wednesday at Providence
Key Game: St. John’s at Syracuse Sunday 3p (ESPN) The Johnnies need another signature road win, the Orange have a 36 game win streak at home…good luck.
Projected bids: 7
Big Ten
Conference Class-Power
Solid: Indiana, Michigan, Ohio State, Minnesota, Michigan State, Wisconsin
Work to do: Illinois, Purdue
The word on the Big Ten is: This is the elite league this year, the Hoosiers and Wolverines are top 5 and just about as safe as you could imagine. The Bucks, Spartans, and Gophers are ranked and are on pretty solid ground. The Badgers are the only unranked team here but I think that they are pretty safe but they could use a big win. Clown on the Illini’s 3-7 conference record but their stunning upset of the top ranked Hoosiers at the buzzer keeps them in the conversation.
Key Game: Michigan at Wisconsin Saturday Noon (ESPN) The Badgers would more or less make themselves bulletproof with a third win over a ranked team
Projected Bids: 6
Big 12
Conference Class-Power
Solid: Kansas, Oklahoma State, Kansas State
Work to do: Baylor, Iowa State, Oklahoma
Skinny from the heartland: Baylor and Oklahoma State played an absolute thriller not decided till the Pokes Markel Brown went coast to coast to a winning layup with .2 seconds to win it. The win keeps the Pokes hard on the Jayhawks (who are way safe as usual) heels in the Big 12. The Bears still need wins to build on. I’m not real sold on Iowa State yet, though I’ve always been fond of Fred “The Mayor” Hoiberg’s coaching
Key Game: Kansas at Oklahoma Saturday 2p The Sooners have a single digit strength of schedule but no real signature win…but beating the Jayhawks would take care of that
Projected Bids: 5
Conference USA
Conference Class-Major
Solid: Southern Miss
Work to do: Central Florida, Memphis, Tulsa
Oh Say Can You C-USA Spec: Memphis is unbeaten in conference but their numbers outside of conference is so-so. They have no signature out of conference wins but no bad losses. Southern Miss has solid numbers but the C-USA is weak beyond them. Is this a one bid conference? I’ll put them down for 2 but there’s nothing ironclad
Key Game: Memphis at Southern Miss Saturday 8p Can the Golden Eagles slow down their longtime archrivals? Hattiesburg has long been a tough win for the visiting Tigers.
Projected Bids: 2
Missouri Valley
Conference Class-Mid Major
Solid: Creighton
Work to do: Wichita State, Indiana State
Missouri Valley Skinny: The MVC is one of my favorite so-called Mid-Major and is always a fun watch. This conference has a ranked team in Creighton and despite a loss on Wednesday The Jays are way way safe but the Shockers took a bad loss to Southern Illinois and need to bank more wins to overshadow this hideous loss. The Sycamores are on the fringe and have a rout of the aforementioned Jays to put on their resume. They have as many good wins (Ole Miss Miami-FL) as horrid losses (Morehead and Drake) so they have plenty of work in front of them.
Key Game: Illinois State at Creighton Saturday 10p The Jays are in need of a bounceback but the Redbirds are just good enough to make it a tough home game
Projected Bids: 2
Mountain West
Conference Class-Major
Solid: New Mexico
Work to do: UNLV, San Diego State, Colorado State, Air Force
Spec from the Mountains: The Lobos are the ranked team but there are plenty of teams that could make a major move. The Rebels and Aztecs are the prime suspects here. But there are as many as 5 teams that could come out of this conference. Seriously they could have more than either the storied SEC or PAC12 and deserve it.
Key Game: New Mexico at UNLV Saturday 4p The Rebels could use the win to tighten the conference standings and get a signature win.
Projected Bids: 4
Pacific 12
Conference Class-Power
Solid: Oregon, Arizona
Work to do: Stanford, UCLA, Arizona State
Spec from the left coast: The Pac-12 has a couple top notch teams but after Arizona and Oregon it really falls off. I don’t trust UCLA any further than I can say Pauley Pavilion (It should be called Wooden Arena) but their buzzer beater against the U-Dub keeps them from another bad loss. The Sun Devils and the Cardinal really lack signature wins.
Key Games: Stanford at Arizona State Saturday 7p. Both teams need the win to be taken more seriously as legit tourney contenders
Projected Bids: 3
Southeastern
Conference Class-Power
Solid: Mizzou, Florida
Work to do: Arkansas, UK, Ole Miss, Alabama
Spec is Down South: Yeah, I know the loss to Arkansas was ugly but the Gators are not in any kind of danger. Mizzou has made a nice transition to the SEC from the Big 12 and are playing well. They too are pretty safe The Hogs still have work to do but that win will go far. Ole Miss and Bama all really lack a signature win. Kentucky? (Long sigh) they are hanging around the peripheral but their tourney ticket is far from a lock. If they keep putting up solid wins they will be in better shape
Key Game: Mississippi St at Florida Saturday 5p The Gators need to bounce back strong and not get caught looking ahead to a visit from UK next week.
Projected Bids: 4
Western Athletic
Conference Class- Major
Solid: Louisiana Tech
Work to do: New Mexico State,
Spec on the WAC: The Bulldogs are the bully here, but they have a super weak schedule which their glittering unbeaten conference slate isn’t going to overshadow. The Aggies are 10-2 in conference but they have nothing
Key Game: Seattle at New Mexico State Saturday 9p The Aggies haven’t lost in the 2013 calendar year and need to keep banking wins to stay hard on the Bulldogs heels.
Projected Bids: 2
West Coast
Conference Class- Mid Major
Solid: St. Marys, Gonzaga
Work to do: BYU
West Coast Spec: The Bulldogs (I refuse to call them Zags) are top ten, son. You are out of your head if you question their dance ticket. St. Mary’s is only a game out of the top spot and might be very well safe. The Cougars are the wild card, they have no real signature wins but no bad losses they might need to keep banking wins they could have 23 wins going into the WCC tourney and still have no legit shot at the tourney unless they win it.
Key Game: Saint Mary at San Diego Saturday 11p If the Gaels want to keep up with the Bulldogs a win in SoCal is necessary.
Projected Bids: 2
There are others in the mix to be sure. Teams from the always dangerous Colonial and Big South always are in the mix and can send multiple teams. Of course the champions from the following conferences get an automatic bid: Amer. East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Sun Belt, Summit, and SWAC projected bids from these conferences will be posted here starting February 21st
Since this is still early spec, nothing here is solid and we haven't even brought up the possibility of upsets. But those never happen, right?
Next Spec Feb 11 in the Hoodwood
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