So, I'm a glutton for punishment. Super Bowl XLII proved to me that ANYTHING can happen. Can you say "David Tyree?" Back then, all of the computer models had the Patriots winning...and winning pretty big. In the simulations in which the Giants won, it was because of smothering defense in a low scoring game. They didn't say it couldn't happen, they just said it was not likely to happen. Guess what? It happened.
So, I went back to WhatIfSports and decided to run a few simulations of the big game. First, though, I went to Fairy Tale land.
Billy Cundiff makes his ill-fated Field Goal attempt to bring the AFC Championship into overtime, where the Ravens advance to the Super Bowl
In my 1 simulation of a Giants/Ravens superbowl, the Ravens win 32-26.
To play make believe just a little more, let's just pretend Kyle Williams held onto the ball just enough for the 49ers to advance. They too would've been beaten by the Ravens in my simulation, 14-12.
Baltimore fans, it seems had the Ravens advanced - they would be holding the trophy next Sunday night in the world according to Mo.
For you 49ers fans, though, you need to cut Mr. Williams some slack - as noted above, they would've barely lost to the Ravens, but in my 1 simulation, they lost again the Patriots 37-30.
So, WhatIfSports runs a gob of simulations, tallies them and gives a thumbnail of the game. In their simulations, New England wins 55% of the time by an average of 27 - 25. My 1 simulation of the game had New England winning 48-42. I stopped at 1 simulation with that score - not going to jinx myself. I thought it would be pretty cool to see how everyone else's simulations work out. Go to http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=2011NFL_SuperBowlXLVI and simulate the game.
Be honest: run the sim once and post the score.
The end of an era?? A ref gets my nod?? Braun tells it like it is?? Fielder not on a team?? Giants, 49ers and more in this edition of Random Thoughts.
Did you expect to see a women every week??
College football lost one of the greatest coaches of all-time with the passing of Joe Paterno, the longtime Penn State coach who won more games than anyone in major college football but was fired amid a child sex abuse scandal that scarred his reputation for winning with integrity, died Sunday. He was 85.
His family released a statement Sunday morning to announce his death: "His loss leaves a void in our lives that will never be filled. He died as he lived. He fought hard until the end, stayed positive, thought only of others and constantly reminded everyone of how blessed his life had been. His ambitions were far reaching, but he never believed he had to leave this Happy Valley to achieve them. He was a man devoted to his family, his university, his players and his community."
Paterno built his program on the credo "Success with Honor," and he found both. The man known as "JoePa" won 409 games and took the Nittany Lions to 37 bowl games, winning 24, and two national championships. More than 250 of the players he coached went on to the NFL.
He never mention testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug, but National League MVP, Ryan Braun, in a public appearance, to accept his award told a packed room that "everything I have done in my career has been done with respect and appreciation for the game of baseball. You know, sometimes in life, we all deal with challenges we never expected to endure. We have an opportunity to look at those challenges and view them either as obstacles or as opportunities, and I've chosen to view every challenge I've ever faced as an opportunity and this will be no different. I have always believed that a person's character is revealed through the way they deal with those moments of adversity."
Ryan had a stellar season, won the NL MVP in his fifth season, batting .332 with 32 home runs and 111 RBIs, 109 runs scored and 33 stolen bases. He also led the league in slugging percentage (.597).
In a story by ESPN’s “Outside the Lines” Braun tested positive for an elevated level of testosterone in a urine test taken in October. But there are conflicting reports about what caused the positive result, and the New York Times quoted a source as saying a later test showed Braun to have normal testosterone levels.
Before Saturday night, Braun had not spoken publicly about the failed test, but a spokesman for Braun confirmed the result and issued the following statement: "There are highly unusual circumstances surrounding this case which will support Ryan's complete innocence and demonstrate there was absolutely no intentional violation of the program. While Ryan has impeccable character and no previous history, unfortunately, because of the process we have to maintain confidentiality and are not able to discuss it any further, but we are confident he will ultimately be exonerated."
Braun is appealing the result but faces a 50-game suspension at the start of the 2012 season under Major League Baseball's drug policy if the test is upheld. According to The Associated Press, Braun's appeal began on Thursday before MLB arbitrator Shyam Das. If it is unsuccessful, Braun would not be eligible to play again until May 31 and would miss the first 57 days of the regular season, resulting in a loss of approximately $1.87 million of his $6 million salary.
Ironically, MLB commissioner Bud Selig has, on more than one occasion, cited Braun as a clean player and an example of the effectiveness of baseball's drug-testing policy. Braun said he had never been tempted to try them.
"I would never do it,'' he said in an interview with MLB.com, "because if I took steroids, I would hit 60 or 70 home runs."
I guess we can say, to be continued….
Probably the best two Championship games in NFL history happened this past Sunday.
New England Patriots beat the Baltimore Ravens 23-20. Goat was Billy Cundiff, who missed a field goal to tie the game. Or was he? With 23 seconds left in the game, Lee Evans had a potential game-winning catch in his hands, but was stripped by Sterling Moore with 23 seconds left in the game.
Here is the catch that wasn’t for the Ravens:
Here is the missed field goal:
In an old school NFL classic, the New York Giants beat the San Francisco 49ers in over-time 20-17. The goat in this game was Kyle Williams who fumbled which was recovered by Devin Thomas inside the 30 yard line and the Giants recovered. The G-Men ran a couple of plays and then kicked the game-winning field goal to send them to the Super Bowl.
Here is the Fumble:
For the record:
Let's get off the fuck Billy Cundiff bandwagon. Sure he missed a field goal to TIE the game.
It was Lee Evans who cost the Ravens a chance for the Super Bowl when he caught a pass in the end zone just to have it knocked out of his hands. Did anyone remember that?? It happened 22 seconds before the missed field goal to TIE the game where Evans catch would have WON the game
What went unnoticed during the 49ers/Giants game was the way referee Ed Hochuli handled the game. Sure there was several calls that were questionable like Vernon Davis foot on the line and Ahmad Bradshaw’s forward progress, but what he did was call the game with authority. He also kept football fans informed with what happened and why the call was made on replay calls. Well done ref!!
Does Prince Fielder have bad breath, or body odor?? Why hasn’t anyone signed him by now?? He is in his prime, at 28 years of age (in May), .282 average, 230 homeruns, 656 RBI’s.
Just as I was typing the above, when this came in….
Prince signs a 9 year deal worth $214 million. WOW. I guess this makes the Tigers the favorites to win the World Series.
Is there a misprint in the sport section of my newspaper, The Florida-Times Union? Seem to me it says the Philadelphia 76ers are 11-5 and the Boston Celtics are 7-9. It that true?
Til Next Time
I didn't get much sleep after games 9 and 10 of the NFL post season played out
Sunday afternoon and evening, Game 11 to be played on Feb 5th in Indianapolis
You will have to excuse us....
Oldharry and Shorty (the new stainless steel leg is working well Kevin thanks)
tried to make some order of our random observations on the games but it looks more like a jumble of disconnected
babble. More coffee please and a turbo shot with that!
The Ravens rode QB Joe Flacco 316yds 2TD's to a
23-20 loss to a defensively tough and opportunistic if not lucky Patriots team.
who knew? Myra H Kraft maybe???
The Pats coaching staff decided to put there efforts into stopping Ray Rice, 22 carries for 67 yds and let Flacco beat them,
Joe almost did.
Tom Brady summed up his personal performance like this" I sucked out there, but our team played tough, our
defense played great and this is a team game."
Ben Jarvis Green-Ellis 15 carries for 68 yds and a TD, out gained Rice.
Tom Brady stuck his face into the end zone on a 4th and a foot for the go ahead and as it worked out, the wining TD.
So lets get this Bizaro straight...Ravens 2 passing TD's, Patriots no passing TD's
Patriots 2 rushing TD's, Ravens no rushing TD's
Ravens 1 sack, Patriots 3 sacks, Ravens 2 ints, Patriots 1 int.
Patriots 3 for 3 FG's Ravens 2 for 3 FG's
After Patriots top corner and the NFL's interception leader Kyle Arrington left the game with an eye injury,
the makeshift secondary was put into the hands of......
Sterling Moore ( let go from the Raiders practice squad in September)
Anquar Molden winner of the (play in the Patriots defensive back field contest),
and Julian Edelman... back up slot receiver, punt returner and gunner on the kickoff teams
how do they
match up with
Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham?
that's a question to ponder for the next 13 days.
I've chosen not to mention a certain placekicker's name here although it seems he had at least a minor role in the Ravens
earlier than expected vacation. A read disappointing ending to a season that started with such promise and a sweep of the
rival Steelers. The Ravens deserved better but sometimes the ball doesn't go where you want it to and if you're playing in
the final eleven games of the NFL season it ends suddenly. only one team can take home the Lombardi...the other 31 just go home.
San Francisco suffered an overtime loss to the Giants, some say because Ted Ginn was sidelined and a guy named
Kyle was returning kicks. The Forty Niners banged and popped Eli thru out the game but Eli took them all and though
I hate to admit it, Eli showed that he is an upper level QB and tough as nails.
The Forty Niners have a legit defense but they could use some receivers to help out Vernon Davis, the guys a monster
but with few other options for Alex Smith to get the ball to. the Giants were able to limit Davis to just 3 catches,
he made the most out of them 112 yds and a pair of TD's
like the Ravens, San Francisco deserved a better fate....maybe next year. It would work out in their favor because the NFC
participant in the past 5 SB's came from the NFC division that drew the AFC East as it's non conference opponents. This
season that division was the NFC East....home of the Giants, Next season it's the NFC West.
The NFL has gotten it's way with the rematch in Indianapolis, Neither the NFL front office nor NBC can hide their
glee over the matchup.........Las Vegas has made the Patriots the early 3 point favorite.
Why they are favored I don't know. Vegas knows how to spur the bettors and the early fast money is on the Giants.
The Giants beat the Falcons, Packers and San Fran to get to the SB, the Patriots road was slightly easier with the
Broncos and Ravens visiting Foxboro.
The Giants have won 5 in a row, all elimination games, the Patriots have won 10 straight, out scoring their opponents 359-188
in that streak. The Patriots last loss was to the Giants back on November 6th the score 24-20.
That game was scorless at half time and the Patriots out gained the Giants by a hundred yards on the day but four Patriot turnovers,
a missed FG and an impressive forth qtr TD drive by Eli gave the Giants the win.
I'm not ready to make my prediction on the Super Bowl, but as a notorious homer I bet you can guess what it will be............
may I suggest..
take the over!
So, Friday night I wrote about being in a SLUMP...Well thankfully this weekend brought plenty to write about...Starting with the Patriots moving onto the "Super Bowl" after beating the Baltimore Ravens 23-20...It was a pretty good game, but it was clear that Tom Brady didn't look right/comfortable all day...And as for Joe Flacco, he didn't look awful, and I'd like to see him tell Ed Reed to shut the fuck up, and don't bite on the play-action...If Ed Reed watched some tape, he'd see that Flacco's shitty receivers hardly ever get separation from the coverage...I'm so happy the Ravens lost!
They had their chances...But the Patriots defense, which has had people shit on them all year, knuckled up at times...And then with 15 seconds left, the Ravens trot out their kicker Billy Cundiff to tie it up...Poor bastard went all Scott Norwood! And after the game, he gave Patriots fan a high-five!
Then there was the 49ers and Giants...Two teams playing really good defense...Two offenses who grind it out...These two teams went at it back and forth and punch for punch...So much so, they had to take it to overtime...And as the Patriots can thank Billy Cundiff, the Giants can thank San Fran return man Kyle Williams, who was a fumble machine, setting up the Giants game winning field goal...
Now we have two weeks of over-hyping the "Super Bowl"...And my wife, born in Boston, will actually be watching the game.......For the commercials!
-The other BIG story in the sports world...Joe Paterno died early Sunday morning...When I saw that he was near death Saturday night, I won't lie...I had spent the entire day in bed sleeping, or on the crapper with the green apple splatters...The Flu had struck me at 2:00AM and was kicking my ass...But the news of Paterno's failing health brought a smile to my face...The only thing that would have been better is if they would have found him dead, with Jerry Sandusky's cock in his mouth, and a shotgun in Sandusky's mouth...Yeah, let that visual soak in for a minute....Fucking scumbags!
Of course Twitter was buzzing when the word came down that Paterno died...And Opie from the O&A Show never fails to smack people in the face with a solid dose of honesty, tweeting this...
"What an insult! Penn State having a MOMENT OF SILENCE for Joe Paterno. That's what got him in trouble in the first place!"
After taking some shit from some dolts, he came back with this...
"So strange how many people are sticking up for Joe Paterno seeing how Joe didn't stick up for innocent children. #GetHelp"
After more bullshit from dolts he said this...
"Maybe the haters are right saying it's too soon for Joe Paterno jokes. I guess I'll be like Joe Pa and wait 10 years. #ZingZangZoom"
I'm all in with Opie...These people trying to blow off the evil shit that went on at Penn State, while Paterno was suppose to be the all knowing, all powerful, perfect example of class and ethics, are fucking insane...The man deserves no moment of silence, no honor, no tribute of any kind...He let the worst type of predator run lose for more then decade, and he let him use Penn State University to help catch his victims...When Sandusky finally does die, Paterno will be waiting for him in hell!
-As I said, after dealing with two sick kids last week, it finally struck me...The wife kept the kids out of my hair, and besides crapping and sleeping, I watched the New York Rangers beat the Boston Bruins in overtime Saturday...It was everything that is great about hockey...Hard-nosed play...Both teams blocking shots, killing penalties, skating hard, hitting hard, and taking desperation shots to win it in OT...I know I speaking to a minority, but people, forget about that basketball garbage...Check out some hockey, it'll be good for ya!
-Friday night before I got sick, the wife and I had some quality time...A few minutes afterwards, she burped and said, "My burp tastes like your cum." That has nothing to do with anything, but I just thought I'd embarrass the Mrs...Maybe that explains why she had a minor case of the splatters Sunday!
-Sunday afternoon I was doing somewhat better, so I shoveled the driveway...Yes, it snowed Friday night, and the local news stations acted like this was some shocking, event...It's January in Cleveland, can we stop getting so worked up when it snows!
So after the shoveling, I took the Little Beeze sledding...there's a great hill near our house, just don't go there late at night, because some queen will be looking to pick you up for a rear-end fondue!
It was like a Norman Rockwell Winter scene...Well, a Rockwell scene with blood, tears, and compound fractures...Kids just flying down the hill, wiping other kids out...Some ass-hat adult wiped out Little Beeze and four other kids...I ran down to check on him, and the guy was handing him his sled, and the douche said, "He got drilled pretty good." I said, "No, shit asshole, you drilled him!" He asked if there was a problem, and I said, "No, just show me your kid, And I'll spend the rest of the day aiming for him!" He walked away, and I didn't see him again...
The boy loves when get geared up for a fight...Then he took his energy back on the hill...He wasted a couple of teen age girls, as he clipped on in the back of the legs and flipped her, he ran over her friends head...Bitch shouldn't have been laying there!
Another successful run!
And here he is getting ready to for another one!
It was a blast, and he can't wait to go again...
That's it for now...Have a week...
Later, The Beeze.
Well folks, it's that time of year again... the men have been separated from the boys, the cream has risen to the top, and a number of other cliches could also be used to describe the majesty that is the AFC and NFC Championship weekend. The final four include some old standbys in the AFC, the Patriots and Ravens, and a band of underachievers and overachievers in the NFC with the Giants and 49ers.
Last week, I really shit the bed, going 2-2 on my picks, bringing my playoff record to 5-3. This week I can save a little face... or get them both wrong and sit at .500 going into the Super Bowl. If that happens, my days as an amateur prognosticator are OVER!
We'll start with the early game, the AFC Title contest between the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots. As much as I hate to say it, the Ravens have a real chance here. This should be a tight ballgame... the real question being which strength will win, the Patriots offense or the Ravens defense. The clear formula for the Ravens, run the ball, control the clock, and keep Tom Brady in check. The clear formula for the Pats... score more points than your defense allows! Look, I'm not saying the Patriots defense is BAD... but they're not what you'd call great, either. Honestly, in a game like this, I say it comes down to the play of your quarterback... and the Patriots have a clear edge there.
Patriots 31- Ravens 23
In the NFC, a championship game between the Giants and 49ers would have drawn a few odd looks in your direction had you predicted it going into this season. Mostly people wondering if you realized this was 2011, not 1991. The Giants seemed a safe bet for the playoffs, and the 49ers a sexy pick in the NFC West... but honestly no real expectations for either club. This one comes down to the running game, pure and simple. Alex Smith was good last week, and this week is his chance prove that was no fluke. Eli Manning has always been a bit streaky in my eyes... this is his chance to have a third consecutive solid-to-great playoff performance... something he didn't put together the entire regular season. But at the end of the day, the winner will be the team that runs the ball effectively, and you're looking at a 49ers defense that didn't allow a rushing touchdown until week 16.
49ers 28- Giants 24
There's the picks... hopefully I'll be coming to you in two weeks at 7-3, giving you a Patriots-49ers Super Bowl preview! Thanks for reading and for any comments you leave on the way out.