Last week was better at 10-5 but there are some really good games this week so I will have to step my game up. As usual the odds are provided by bodog.net and are for entertainment and comparison purposes only. Princess Katie’s birthday wasThursday and since all my money is tied up in that, I haven’t an extra dime to spare you if you take the lines and get took. Please Note that Minnesota (1-3); Pittsburgh (0-4); Tampa Bay (0-4); Washington (1-3).are all on a bye this week.
Sunday, October 6
Ravens (2-2) @ Dolphins (3-1)
SunLife Stadium, Miami Gardens FL 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite Dolphins by 3
Last Week Ravens lost to Bills 23-20, Dolphins lost to Saints 38-17
Fast Fact Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill has been sacked a league high 18 times.
The Ravens are playing extremely uneven week to week. Joe Flacco has suddenly morphed back into an ordinary Joe and the once feared defense is not making anyone scared. On the other hand aside from the most recent rout by the Saints, the Dolphins have been playing a nice combo of effiecent passing by Ryan Tannehill an underrated running game and a good defense. I think that the Dolphins can bounce back strong from their primetime beatdown and roll to a win.
Lions (3-1) @ Packers (1-2)
Lambeau Field, Green Bay 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite Packers by 7
Last Week Lions defeated Bears 40-32, Packers were on a bye
Fast Fact Two weeks removed from breaking an 0-21 streak in Washington, the Lions try to break a 22 game losing streak in Wisconsin (19 losses in Green Bay, 3 in Milwaukee)
The Lions are feeling quite froggy after having stood tall against the Bears. The Packers have been stewing about a nasty fall from ahead loss in Cincy two weeks ago. The Lions offense has been playing at a crisp level while their defense has played inconsistent yet good enough to keep the Lions from losing games that they would have back in the day. Im just not quite sure what to make of the Packers they don’t play solid defense and can get gashed way too often. If it was anyone else I would say the Packers are in trouble but I keep seeing the Packers winning a wild shootout.
Jacksonville (0-4) @ Rams (1-3)
Edward Jones, Dome St. Louis 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite Rams by 12
Last Week Jaguars lost to Colts 37-3, Rams lost to Niners 35-11
Fast Fact The Jags have scored 31 points total for the season, the Broncos have scored more in each game
The Rams got thumped by the Niners and need someone to take it out on. Lo and behold, look who show up other than the ragged Jags who will get a boost with the return of Justin Blackmon to give the beleaguered Blaine Gabbert a reliable target. The Rams offense is suspect at best, a couple steps above the abysmal Jags offense. But the Jags defense will make any offense healthy and I see no reason why the Rams at home shouldn’t be able to pick on the Jags and get the win.
Chiefs (4-0) @ Titans (3-1)
LP Field, Nashville 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite Chiefs by 3
Last Week Chiefs defeated Giants 31-7, Titans defeated Jets 38-13
Fast Fact The Chiefs have scored 26 or more points in 3 of their four games, a feat that they only accomplised twice in the entire 2012 season.
One of the better games is in Nashville where the surprising Titans are hosting the equally surprising Chiefs. Both teams are loaded with underrated talent, the Chiefs Alex Smith is thriving under the tutelage of Andy Reid but the Titans are still trying to figure out what their QB situation will be after Jake Locker was shelved with a bad hip. The well traveled Ryan Fitzpatrick (Is he still in this league?) gets the starting nod. Ordinarily I’d like the Titans slightly at home as they are always a tough draw in Nashville but the Chiefs are looking kinda right and tight. That defense is no joke and I think that a road win is very doable here.
Patriots (4-0) @ Bengals (2-2)
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati 1:00 (CBS)
Favorite No Line
Last Week Patriots defeated Falcons 30-23, Bengals lost to Browns 17-6
Fast Fact Patriots QB Tom Brady has yet to lose to the Bengals, the Pats last loss to the Bengals in 2001, Brady was still the backup to Drew Bledsoe
The Pats won a thrilling shootout with the Falcons on Sunday night and head to the Jungle to face the maddeningly inconsistent Bengals. The whispers about Andy Dalton’s uneven play is growing somewhat and the defense while very capable can only do so much when the offense cant produce. . There is a sentiment that the Bengals are capable of pulling the upset. Are they? Sure, and it really wouldn’t be that big of an upset. Will it happen? Nope.
Saints (4-0)@ Bears (3-1)
Soldier Field, Chicago 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite Saints by 1
Last Week Saints defeated Dolphins 38-17, Bears lost to Lions 40-32
Fast Fact Saints QB Drew Brees is 0-3 in Chicago
An interesting game in the Windy City as the hot Saints come in to face the Bears. Drew Brees has never looked sharper, dissecting the Dolphins rather easily on Monday night. As soon as I express some confidence in the Bears and Jay Cutler they revert to old form and lose a puzzler against the Lions as the defense again got hammered for big yards, big plays and 40 points. What little confidence I had in the Bears and Cutler is just about nil. The Saints aren’t a perfect squad but you gotta like the defensive swagger that defensive coordinator Rob Ryan brings to this group. I think that the make it a tough day for Cutler and the opps that Brees will get as a result of it will get him his first win in the Midway.
Eagles (1-3) @NY Giants (0-4)
MetLife Stadium; East Rutherford, NJ 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite Giants by 3
Last Week Eagles lost to Broncos 52-20, Giants lost to Chiefs 31-7
These two proud teams have fallen on some serious hard times. Just when I was ready to celebrate the fast break offense of the Eagles they clutch up and just look abysmal in the past three weeks, the nadir being an awful beating in Denver where the Broncos looked more like the fast break offense and the Eagles looked like they were struggling to catch their breath much less keep up. The G-Men are just as sad a story getting hammered in KC by a Chiefs team that did just about whatever they wanted. Eli Manning’s seemingly fragile psyche is getting smashed to bits and Tom Coughlin’s set gets hotter by the second less than two seasons after winning a Super Bowl. I cant see his seat getting any cooler. While the Eagles have problems they should be able to make things tougher on a G-Men squad that is a poor facsimile of a once great team.
Seahawks (4-0) @ Colts (3-1)
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis 1:00 (FOX)
Favorite Colts by 3
Last Week Seahawks defeated Texans 23-20 in OT, Colts defeated Jaguars 37-3
Fast Fact Seahawks are off to their first ever 4-0 start
It’s a face off of two of the members of the highly heralded QB class of 2012, Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck have piloted their respective squads out to fine starts but haven’t really put up eye popping numbers. Though Luck did have a solid game last week in routing the pitiful Jags, Wilson was having a ragged day until engineering a late comeback to push the Seahawks to a win in OT in Houston. This game looks on the surface to be a duel between two of the hot young QBs but I think that the Colts defense is better than advertised. Call me crazy (shaddap) but I just don’t see the Seahawks coming east a second time and being able to get away with a so-so performance and win. Indy will never get to the levels of the extreme rowdiness of Seattle’s Century Link Field but I think that they will make just enough to make a difference and Indy will steal a tight one
Pick-Indianapolis (Upset of the Week)
Panthers (1-2) @ Cardinals (2-2)
University of Phoenix Stadium; Glendale, AZ 4:05 (FOX)
Favorite Panthers by 2
Last Week Panthers were on a bye, Cardinals defeated Bucs 13-10
Fast Fact The 38-0 week 3 shutout of the Giants was the Panthers biggest win margin in franchise history
The Panthers well rested after a whitewash of the G-Men face a Cards team that is its usual up and down self. The defense has played decent but the offense is punchless and struggles to score points. (I mean really 13 against the Bucs?) Cam Newton will never be high on my list of top flight QB’s but he has played relatively well in his last two games. It will be the irresitable force of the Panthers 3rd ranked running game against a stingy Cards run defense that is ranked 2nd against the run. To be sure this is a tossup game. I want to pick the home team but the Cards offense is a bit to shaky for me to be confident in picking them.
Broncos (4-0) @ Cowboys (2-2)
AT&T Stadium; Arlington, TX 4:25 (CBS)
Favorite Broncos by 9
Last Week Broncos defeated Eagles 52-20, Cowboys lost to Chargers 30-21
Fast Fact Broncos 167 points through 4 games is 2nd all time highest scoring for the 1st four games of the season (1966 Cowboys)
With the rescheduling of the Chargers-Raiders game this becomes the start of three nationally televised games and the first one is a good one. The high powered high scoring Denver offense heading into the Jerry dome to face a Pokes team that puts on a brave face in talking tough about being sick of hearing about Peyton Manning but given their weak secondary that was toasted to north of 400 yards by Philip Rivers what would one think that the Jedi master would do? With a number of weapons Manning is playing at a rare form even for his brilliant career. The only hope the Pokes have is to hope that Tony Romo can stand taller against Manning. Do I think that he can? If you believe that, I have some really nice oceanfront property in Kansas that might interest you…
Pick-Denver (Lock of the Week)
Texans (2-2) @ 49ers(2-2)
Candlestick Park, San Francisco 8:30 (NBC)
Favorite 49ers by 7
Last Week Texans lost to Seahawks 23-20, 49ers defeated Rams 35-11
Fast Fact This series is dead even, both teams have split the two meetings, scored 41 points total in those two meetings with the home team winning by 3.
The Niners were getting some whispers of suspect in their previous two games getting outscored 56-10 before bouncing back to whip the Rams, while the Texans looked decent in their first two games only to get hammered in Baltimore then cough up a late lead to the Seahawks at home. Matt Schaub continues to struggle and a local Houston eatery named a sandwich option a Schaub meaning that one could “pick-six” options on the sandwich. That possibility could be a reality here as the ball hawking 49ers defense could make the game a long one. If defensive ace Brian Cushing isn’t cleared with his concussion struggles it could make things just as tough for a Texans defense that has played unusually below the top shelf level that one has expected from them as of late. I think that the Niners continue to break out of their mini-slump while the Texans continue to struggle.
Chargers (2-2) @ Raiders (1-3)
O.Co Coliseum, Oakland 11:35 (NFLN)
Favorite No Line
Last Week Chargers defeated Cowboys 30-21, Raiders lost to Redskins 24-14
Fast Fact Raiders havent scored 21 or more point in 12 straight games the longest current streak in the NFL
This game was originally a 4:25p EDT game rescheduled due to the MLB playoff game that is being played on Saturday, the only stadium that is shared by an MLB and NFL team needs a 24 hour turnaround to realign the stadium to football configurations. So an unusual scenario has developed, the East Bay will see a later version of football than even a primetime slot would allow. The Chargers looked sharp against the Cowboys with Philip Rivers strafing a weak Poke secondary repeatedly for big yards. He should be able to do the same against a Raiders defense that plays okay, but is on the field more because of a weak offense. The Chargers are better than their 2-2 record would indicate and I think that they prove that handily here.
Monday, October 7
NY Jets (2-2) @ Falcons (1-3)
Georgia Dome, Atlanta 8:30 (ESPN)
Favorite Falcons by 10
Last Week Jets lost to Titans 38-13, Falcons lost to Patriots 30-23
Fast Fact The Falcons have never lost three straight games with Matt Ryan as QB
The Falcons host their second straight prime time affair as the Jets come to town to finish the week. Matt Ryan took a little too long to get rolling and couldn’t bring the Falcons all the way back against the Pats. The grins and jeers from Rex Ryan were few and far between as the Jets got smashed in Nashville. This is another case in which records are very deceiving the Falcons are no where near as bad as a 1-3 record would indicate and the Jets 2-2 record is way above expectations. Geno Smith will be in this league for a while, you can bank on that but he will have his struggles. Facing a Falcons defense that will look for the big play, they will make things tough. Im looking for Ryan to have a big game at home.
Last Week: 10-5 (Lock Correct, Upset Incorrect)