Sunday, November 25

Falcons (9-1) @ Buccaneers (6-4)

Raymond James Stadium, Tampa 1:00 (FOX)

Favorite Falcons by 1½

Last Week Falcons lost to Cardinals 23-19 Buccaneers defeated Panthers 27-21 in OT

Fast Fact Falcons QB Matt Ryan is the first QB since Bart Starr in 1967 to throw 5 interceptions without a TD in a win.

The Falcons are just winning, even if its ugly in a 9-1 start. The Bucs have strung a 4 game win streak to climb into postseason contention and won a thrilling come from behind game in Carolina. The Bucs are getting to be a dangerous team with the solid running of Doug Martin accenting the passing game. Im still not sold on the Bucs as a viable playoff team but the Falcons can play suspect as well. Im concerned about the Falcons heading to Tampa and getting a win but Im going to bank on the Falcons defense being strong enough to keep the young hungry Bucs at bay.

Pick-Atlanta

Bills (4-6) @ Colts (6-4)

Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite No line

Last Week Bills defeated Dolphins 19-14, Colts lost to Patriots 59-24

Fast Fact Colt QB Andrew Luck threw three interceptions against the Pats his first three INT game since his career debut against the Bears.

The Bills enjoyed a rock-em sock-em win over a depised divisional rival a week ago Thursday while the Colts took a frightful beating from the Pats. The Bills are a study in inconsistent play. The Colts are playing much better than most pundits ever dreamed of. Im liking the Colts to continue their solid play at home, with Luck having a bounce back game.

Pick-Indianapolis

Broncos (7-3) @ Chiefs (1-9)

Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Broncos by 10½

Last Week Broncos defeated Chargers 30-24, Chiefs lost to Bengals 28-6

Fast Fact

The Broncos raced out to a huge lead then let the Chargers back into the game late. The Chiefs have went from sad sack to pathetic to punch line. Im liking the kind of game Peyton Manning has brought to the Broncos and he should find the sledding quite easy against a weak Kansas City defense whos fans have just given up. This game could get really ugly.

Pick-Denver (Lock of the Week)

Vikings (6-4) @ Bears (7-3)

Soldier Field, Chicago 1:00 FOX

Favorite No Line due to injury status of Cutler

Last Week Vikings were on a bye, Bears lost to 49ers 32-7

Fast Fact The Bears have won 10 of the last 11 meetings in Chicago

The Vikings are coming in well rested after a bye and having thumped the Lions. The Bears took a nasty beating on Monday night from the Niners and are still unsure if Jay Cutler will be able to go following missing that game with a concussion. Adrian Peterson is a serious MVP candidate and as long as the Vikings passing game remains a bit serviceable they can keep defenses from loading up to stop Peterson. I like the Bears defense but their offense has gotten punchy and that defense is just getting worn out. This is a pick that Im probably going to regret but Im not sold on the Bears anymore especially with Jason Campbell at the control.

Pick­-Minnesota

Raiders (3-7) @ Bengals (5-5)

Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Bengals by 8

Last Week Raiders lost to Saints 38-17, Bengals defeated Chiefs 28-6

Fast Fact The Raiders have given up 32.2 points a game, an NFL worst.

One time Bengal franchise QB Carson Palmer returns to the city where he played for 7 seasons, he was there 9 actually but sat the first season and refused to play half of his last. The suprising  trade to the Raiders was well chronicled in Bengal country and most fans of the team was quick to say good riddance especially after the promising play of Andy Dalton  Palmer’s acrimonious split with the Bengals rankled some and when the schedule came out Bengal fans were quick to point that game out as one they would turn out to heckle Palmer. As the season has progressed most Bengals fans have shown less concern about the former QB and more with the status of their team that is very much in playoff contention after a pair solid to break a four game skid. The Raiders porous defense is making Palmers tough job even more difficult. I’ve long held the assertion that west coast teams heading east are dead meat playing early games. Combine that with the Bengals passing game likely to have its way against a weak Raider secondary and the Bengals should make Palmers return a forgettable one.

Pick-Cincinnati

Steelers (6-4) @ Browns (2-8)

Browns Stadium, Cleveland 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite No Line due to uncertain Pit QB status

Last Week Steelers lost to Ravens 13-10, Browns lost to Cowboys 23-20 in OT

Fast Fact  The Steelers have won the last four matchup by a combined score 96-31

When in doubt, bring the Browns out. At least that’s what the Steelers think more often than not. The Steelers lost a slugfest with their hated rivals and at a fearsome cost, losing backup Byron Leftwich with busted ribs. Ageless Charlie Batch (Is he still in this league?) will get the start. The Browns who played courageously against the Cowboys and nearly stole it in OT are not a pushover and I suspect that they will give the Steelers a tough way to go at home, but aren’t close to being good enough to even beat a depleted Steelers team that is used to imposing their will on the Browns.

PIck-Pittsburgh

Seahawks (6-4) @ Dolphins (4-6)

SunLife Stadium, Miami 1:00 (FOX)

Favorite Seahawks by 3

Last Week  Seahawks were on a bye, Dolphins lost to Bills 19-14

Fast Fact The Seahawks and Dolphins are the two NFL teams furthest from one another according to Google Maps, The distance from Century Link Field to SunLife Stadium is 3247 miles.

The Seahawks are the Jekyll/Hyde team. Fearsome in their own crib, they are pretty pedestrian outside the Pacific Northwest. The Dolphins are a team that looked to be on the rise a few weeks ago and then started taking hella beatings. Their offense has gone missing and they have fallen by the wayside. As a result they have lost their last three, but heres the thing. The Seahawks are coming cross country for a 1p start which means more often than not they are dead man walking. Im tempted to pick the Dolphins for this very reason. But I don’t trust their consistency and the Seahawks defense is better than the last West Coast team that came east and got smashed in Miami.

Pick-Seattle

Titans (4-6) @ Jaguars (1-9)

EverBank Field, Jacksonville 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Titans by 4

Last Week  Titans were on a bye, Jaguars lost to Texans 43-37 in OT

Fast Fact The Jaguars scored as many points last week (37) as they did in the previous 3 combined (39)

The Titans rebounded from a horrid performance to dominate the Dolphins before their bye, they Jags may have found a spark in their offense with a valiant performance by Chad Henne The Titans are another hard team to pin down, they played like chumps against the Bears only to rebound to smash the Dolphins. With so many offensive questions, the Titans are a wildly inconsistent team to call from week to week but they do have some offense weapons. The Jags might look like they could be at least pro caliber with Henne directing the offense; playing at home the Jags might be able to spring the upset. As much as I would like to call this one I just cant.

Pick-Tennessee

Ravens (8-2) @ Chargers (4-6)

Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego 4:05 (CBS)

Favorite Ravens by 1

Last Week Ravens defeated Steelers 13-10, Chargers lost to Broncos 30-23

Fast Fact This is about a dead even rivalry as one could get. The teams have split eight meetings and have scored 153 points total in the meetings.

The Ravens won a low-scoring tussle with the Steelers and are in the drivers seat in the AFC North, the Chargers are coming apart fast and Norv Turner’s job gets more and more tenous with each Philip Rivers sack, interception or bad play. These are teams that are fast heading in opposite directions and boosted by the non-suspension of Ed Reed the Ravens defense gets tougher. Im seeing the aged but effective Ravens defense forcing Rivers into mistakes and pulling out a close win.

Pick-Baltimore

49ers (7-2-1) @ Saints (5-5)

Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans 4:25 (FOX)

Favorite No line due to uncertain SF QB status

Last Week 49ers defeated Bears 32-7, Saints defeated Raiders 38-17

Fast Fact The Niners haven’t allowed a 300 yard passer all season, but the last to do it was Drew Brees in last years playoff game.

The Niners looked absolutely fierce in a total domination of the Bears last Monday while the Saints have looked to have made their 0-4 start a distant memory and have climbed back into the playoff hunt. The questions of who will QB the Niners is now the paramount question with Colin Kaepernick filling in capably for the concussed Alex Smith last week. There is no such question in the Big Easy as Drew Brees continued to put up massive numbers and has had to with the leaky Saints defense. The Niners have played well over the last few weeks, the tie game excepted but Im thinking they are overdue for a flat road game or to lose a shootout. I think it happens here.

Pick-New Orleans (Upset of the Week)

Rams (3-6-1) @ Cardinals (4-6)

University of Phoenix, Glendale AZ 4:25 (FOX)

Favorite Cardinals by 1½

Last Week Rams lost to Jets 27-13 Cardinals lost to Falcons 23-19

Fast Fact Since the Rams 17-3 win over the Cards on Oct. 4^th neither team has won a game.

I thought the Rams were ready to turn a corner and instead they turned in a dud performance, looking lost against a beatable Jets squad. The Cards are a mess having lost their last six games after getting out to a 4-0 start, Im not real sure of which team will turn in the more horrid performance and especially with the Cards going through one QB after another. Ill give this one to the home team, since I just don’t trust the Rams.

Pick-Arizona

Packers (7-3) @ NY Giants (6-4)

MetLife Stadium; E. Rutherford, NJ 8:20 (NBC)

Favorite Giants by 3

Last Week  Packers defeated Lions 24-20, Giants were on a bye

Fast Fact The Giants have won their last 5 games after a bye, which may help Eli Manning who is 0-2 in the regular season against the Packers.

The last two Super Bowl champs face off in a primetime doozy that promises to be better than the clunker the other MetLife Stadium resident turned in. But you cant be totally sure about the G-Men who will turn in a couple head-scratchers here and there every year, witness the pre-bye thumping at the hands of the Bengals. Meanwhile the Pack have been grinding out wins to tighten the NFC North title race. The Pack manage their injuries and have the incomparable Aaron Rodgers to throw his usual bushel of accurate passes. This looks to be a tight well played contest. Ill take a chance here and bet on the road team because Im not convinced that the G-Men have their yearly spasm of bad games out of their system.

Pick-Green Bay

Monday, November 26

Panthers (2-8) @ Eagles (3-7)

Lincoln Financial Field, 8:30 (ESPN)

Favorite No Line due to uncertain PHI QB status

Last Week  Panthers lost to Buccaneers 27-21, Eagles lost to Redskins 31-6

Fast Fact The Eagles have lost their last four by an average of 14 points.

A pair of disappointing teams wrap up the week, the Panthers played a good Bucs team tough but dropped it in OT while the Eagles are just wanting it to be all over. Nick Foles looks like he will continue to start for the Eagles and Cam Newton is playing better but is still looking very much like hes still trying to get through a tough sophomore jinx. Tough came to call since both of these teams are playing more for pride but Im thinking the Eagles are way overdue for a win.

Pick-Philadelphia

Last Week 13-1 (Lock and Upset Correct)

Overall 104-55-1 (Thanksgiving games not included)

Locks: 8-3

Upsets: 5-6

Thursday, November 22 (Happy Thanksgiving!)

Favorite Texans by 4

Last Week Texans defeated Jaguars 43-37 in OT, Lions lost to Packers 24-20

Fast Fact This is the Lions 67th straight thanksgiving appearance, this is the Texans 1^st

The Texans got a massive scare from a Jags team that seemed undaunted by their gaudy record or tough crowd. Andre Johnson’s catch and run off a short Matt Schaub pass gave the Texans the hard earned win. It all seems to be coming apart for a Lions team thought to be ready to make that jump to top shelf contender as they lost another tight game. The Lions used to relish this game as their one chance to be in the national spotlight, but given their mediocre play so far this year they are the not ready for primetime team. The Texans solid offense and their bone crunching defense will make the afternoon tough for the home team and make their first Thanksgiving day game a memorable one.

Pick­-Houston

Favorite Cowboys by 3

Last Week Redskins defeated Eagles 31-6, Cowboys defeated Browns 23-20 in OT

Fast Fact The Cowboys have won all six Turkey day meetings with the Redskins

The Pokes dawdled, the Pokes played and delayed. They let a weak Browns team hang tough with them for the better part of the afternoon and it almost cost them. But in the end they got a needed win. The Redskins are showing signs of stability under the dynamic play of RGIII who ran and threw for nearly 300 yards and four scores in a beatdown of Philly. I don’t trust Tony Romo to carry the offensive load. Its not because Ive never been soild on at anytime, given the Pokes trouble with a weak line and running game so non-existant, calling it puny is a compliment. All that said, I think the game is a tossup. The Skins for all the outstanding play of RGIII, their defense is still suspect at best. Im gonna regret this one but the Pokes are always tough at home at Thanksgiving.

Pick-Dallas

Patriots (7-3) @ NY Jets (4-6)

MetLife Stadium; E. Rutherford, NJ 8:20 (NBC)

Favorite Patriots by 7½

Last Week Patriots defeated Jets 59-24, Jets defeated Rams 27-13

Fast Fact The Patriots have played in all of the Thanksgiving games in Detroit, in Dallas and now this late game.

Rex Ryan looked like he was going to burst he couldn’t contain himself as he tried to ratchet up the hype for this matchup. Though Mark Sanchez played a mistake free efficient game in St. Louis Sunday, he and the Jets offense have been nothing short of a joke before the Rams win scoring 16 points in two games. The Pats played at a frighteningly crisp pace last week, slamming the Colts but at a terrible price losing stud TE Rob Gronkowski to a broken forearm as he needlessly was on the field for the overkill extra point on the Pats 9^th TD of the day. As it stands the Jets get up for this game against their divisional foe and will play the Pats tough but they don’t have it in them to stand up to the Pats withering attack.

Pick-New England

Another decent week, though that tie messed a lot of people up. I know that many people were stunned to see the woeful Chiefs take the fight to the Steelers and keep what should have been a walkover game in doubt. But nonetheless aside from the Titans and Cowboys continuing to cross and double cross me (No thanks Darrel & Reg’s Eagles on the latter) and the totally puzzling Bengals win over the G-Men were the only losses I took. Im still trying to wrap my head around the first NFL tie since 2008 though. Nevertheless present for your perusal, review and consumption are the fearless picks. Odds are provided by bodog.net for entertainment and comparison purposes only. If you get cleaned out this week betting the lines, I might take pity on you and cut you a slice of turkey next week. But you’ll get no stuffing or cranberry sauce and you will have to sit at the kiddie table! The final set of byes

BYE WEEK – Minnesota (6-4); NY Giants (6-4); Seattle (6-4); Tennessee (4-6).

Writers Note: I am reposting my Thursday pick along the rest of the picks since I actually got them all finished way ahead of time this week...Its amazing what you can get done without distractions...

NFL SCHEDULE – WEEK 11

Thursday, November 15

Dolphins (4-5) @  Bills (3-6)      

Ralph Wilson Stadium; Orchard, Park, NY 8:20 (NFLN)

Favorite Bills by 3

Last Week Dolphins lost to Titans 37-3, Bills lost to Patriots 37-31

Fast Fact The Dolphins have not scored a touchdown in its last six quarters

The Dolphins got housed in their own crib by the Titans (the Titans???) and their offense has hit a dangerous lull. The Bills are the most confusing team in the AFC, they have yet to play complete game in a few weeks. The offense shows up when the defense is AWOL, then the defense comes to ball when the offense is MIA…make sense? No? Neither does this matchup of long time divisional rivals, flip a coin and go with the home team in the cold night in Western New York.

Pick-Buffalo

Sunday, November 18

Cardinals (4-5) @ Falcons (8-1)

Georgia Dome, Atlanta 1:00 (FOX)

Favorite Falcons by 10

Last Week Cardinals were on a bye, Falcons lost to Saints 31-27

Fast Fact The Cardinals have allowed a NFL high 41 sacks

The Falcons took their first loss but are still a tough matchup with anyone. The Cards are sputtering badly and are looking nothing like the 4-0 team that started the season. Their weak defense will get picked on repeatedly by Matty Ice and his merry band of receivers and the Falcons defense will breathe easier having to just face Larry Fitzgerald. Another west team heading east…this isn’t as bad as some would think (I’ve made the 2 hour flight from Phoenix to Atlanta) but the Cards aren’t anywhere near close to pulling the upset.

Bengals (4-5) @ Chiefs (1-8)

Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Bengals by 3½

Last Week Bengals defeated Giants 31-13, Chiefs lost to Steelers 16-13 in OT

Fast Fact These teams have split 26 meetings

 The Bengals stunned…well pretty much everyone, their fans included by housing the G-Men. The Chiefs played the Steelers a lot tougher than expected this past Monday. Andy Dalton is a young gun ready to strafe a weak Chiefs defense. Back in the day this would be a road nightmare for a team like the Bengals now Arrowhead doesn’t scare anyone anymore. Matt Cassel will likely get more boos, Jamal Charles will not be able to hold up the entire offense and the Chiefs are simply just not a good team, even the Bengals shouldn’t be able to mess this one up…I think…

Pick-Cincinnati

Browns (2-7) @ Cowboys (4-5)

Cowboys Stadium; Arlington, TX 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Cowboys by 8

Last Week Browns were on a bye, Cowboys defeated Eagles 38-23

Fast Fact The Browns are one of the few teams that the Cowboys don’t lead their all-time series. The Browns hold a 15-11 edge

The Pokes woke from their slumber to pound an equally woeful Eagles team and face a Browns team that while showing signs of improvement are nowhere near capable of going on the road and winning. The Browns have a young offense that will be exploited by a Cowboys defense that can rush a weak line hard. Tony Romo will have the faithful singing his praises again… 

Pick-Dallas

Packers (6-3) @ Lions (4-5)

Ford Field, Detroit 1:00 (FOX)

Favorite Packers by 3

Last Week Packers were on a bye, Lions lost to Vikings 34-24

Fast Fact Packers coach Mike McCarthy is 11-1 against the Lions

The Packers look like a team that is rounding into form at the right time, and their offense led by Aaron Rodgers is looking as crisp as ever. Their defense is decent but battling injuries. The Lions are about as maddeningly inconsistent as you could imagine, Matthew Stafford is throwing a bushel of passes but not as many to Megatron and their running game is here one day and gone the next, let’s not even start to talk about their defense. I think this game has the makings of another shootout, a game the Packers are better equipped to win.

Pick-Green Bay

Jaguars (1-8) @ Texans (8-1)

Reliant Stadium, Houston 1:00 CBS

Favorite Texans by 15½

Last Week Jaguars lost to Colts 27-10, Texans defeated Bears 13-6

Fast Fact The Jags have only averaged 12.5 ppg during their six game losing skid

The Texans finally got a chance to shine in primetime as they won a sloppy, though gritty game in Chi-town. The Jags? They were on Primetime and just looked like themselves. Awful. This game has Boogie Down beatdown written all over it. The Texans are in no mood to play charity and will show the Jags no quarter.

Pick-Houston (Lock of the Week)

NY Jets (3-6) @ Rams (3-5-1)

Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Rams by 3½

Last Week Jets lost to Seahawks 28-7, Rams played 49ers to tie at 24

Fast Fact The last 5 tie games have involved at least one NFC team

The Jets are imploding to no one’s surprise but themselves. The anonymous quotes about Tim Tebow is about as indicative of how this dysfunctional this squad is. The Rams played the Niners tougher than expected and came away with a surprising tie. The Rams are playing hard and trying to build for the future while the smarmy remarks that used to once come from the grinning jeering Rex Ryan are getting fewer and further between. The Jets’ offense is just about as much of a joke as you can dream of. The Rams while nowhere close to being a world beater should be able to pound the Jets at home.

Pick-St. Louis

Eagles (3-6) @ Redskins (3-6)

FedEx Field; Landover, MD 1:00 (FOX)

Favorite Redskins by 4

Last Week Eagles lost to Cowboys 38-23, Redskins were on a bye

Fast Fact Washington QB Robert Griffin III has a 93.9 passer rating, best among all rookie QB’s

The Redskins are still trying to get together with the solid play of RGIII while the Eagles are in a sad slow crumble. Nick Foles will likely get the start to see how well he will handle being the starter but for all intents and purposes the Iggles are playing out the string. The Redskins while not playing well are playing with some sort of direction and that’s more than the other team can say.

Pick-Washington

Buccaneers (5-4) @ Panthers (2-7)

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte 1:00 (FOX)

Favorite Buccaneers by 2

Last Week Buccaneers defeated Chargers 34-24, Panthers lost to Broncos 36-14

Fast Fact Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman hasn’t thrown an interception in his last 151 attempts.

The Bucs are quietly in the middle of the playoff race and playing fairly respectable. The Panthers are regressing badly and got housed by the Broncos to no one’s surprise. If ever there was a trap game for the Bucs its right here. But for some reason, I just don’t see it happening. The Bucs are showing better balance on the offensive side and their defense is quietly one of the better units in the NFC. I’m seeing the Bucs baiting the Panthers into a few dumb turnovers and winning a grind it out game.

Pick-Tampa Bay

Saints (4-5) @ Raiders (3-6)

o.Co Coliseum, Oakland 4:05 (FOX)

Favorite Saints by 5½

Last Week Saints defeated Falcons 31-27, Raiders lost to Ravens 55-20

Fast Fact You know the Saints as a passing team but they need to run too since 2010 the Saints are 27-4 when they have 21 or more rushes 1-9 when having less than 20 rushes.

As predicted the Saints defended their house against the formerly unbeaten Falcons and look like that they could make a second half charge into playoff contention. The Raiders took an awful beating in Baltimore and the thinking is if Joe Flacco could do a house job on the Raiders what would a beast like Drew Brees do? This is another shootout waiting to happen as the Saints defense is just as porous.

Pick-New Orleans

Colts (6-3) @ Patriots (6-3)

Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, MA 4:25 (CBS)

Favorite Patriots by 9

Last Week Colts defeated Jaguars 27-10; Patriots defeated Bills 37-31

Fast Fact

A lot of people were lamenting this matchup as a blowout waiting to happen when the schedule came out. They didn’t expect the Colts to come in a rough and ready squad of young bucks fast taking the mold of their inspirational coach and young QB, fearless, bold and a team not to take lightly. The Pats had best be careful, a sleepwalk type game may have gotten over against the Bills but to play as they have could get them upset. Will it happen? No, but this will be a game better than advertised. Tom Brady is now the grizzled sheriff and Andrew Luck is looking for that signature win, I think the young buck will give it a go but have to learn his lesson from the old sheriff.

Pick-New England

Chargers (4-5) @ Broncos (6-3)

Sports Authority Field @ Mile High, Denver 4:25 (CBS)

Favorite Broncos by 8

Last Week Chargers lost to Buccaneers 34-24, Broncos defeated Panthers 36-14

Fast Fact The Chargers are looking for their fourth straight win against the Broncos in Denver

The Chargers are teetering dangerously on the precipice of the cliff of playoff irrelevancy while the Broncos are playing solidly and are starting to look like they will be a tough playoff out. I just can’t believe how badly Philip Rivers has fallen off; he made a bushel of dumb passes which hurt their chances to take a winnable game in Tampa. This looked like a premier matchup of QB’s at seasons beginning…now not so much.

Pick-Denver

Baltimore (7-2) @ Pittsburgh (6-3)

Heinz Field, Pittsburgh 8:20 (NBC)

Favorite No line due to injury statuses

Last Week Ravens defeated Raiders 55-20; Steelers defeated Chiefs 16-13 in OT

Fast Fact The 55 points that the Ravens scored against the Raiders was a franchise single game record. The Steelers look as if they are rounding into their usual playoff contending self but the injury to Big Ben has cast a huge shadow of doubt over the team. Not the shoulder which they were expecting and have well-traveled vet Byron Leftwich at the ready but the dislocated rib that threatens his aorta (that’s near the heart, folks) and may sideline him for a greater length of time than the Steelers can afford. The Ravens are walking tall after ringing up a double nickel on the Raiders but their run defense is uncharacteristically weak and you would think that the Steelers will try hard to exploit that. The Steelers are usually money at home, but I’m not too sure about Leftwich. How is this the upset? Beating the Steelers in Pittsburgh is always an upset

Pick-Baltimore (Upset of the Week)

Monday, November 19

Bears (7-2) @ 49ers (6-2-1)

Candlestick Park, San Francisco 8:30 ESPN

Favorite No line

Last Week Bears lost to Texans 13-6, 49ers played Rams to a tie at 24

Fast Fact Offense will be at a premium, The Bears lead the NFL with 30 turnovers and 19 interceptions. The Niners allow only 292 yards a game and 196.2 of that via the pass.

 ESPN is thinking “Finally we get a good one for Monday Night!” But both teams are coming in off of puzzling games. The Bears slogged through a muddy mess and their offense was non-existent and turnover plagued against the Texans. The Niners found every way not to win against the Rams and were fortunate to come away with a tie all things considered. Which QB will answer the bell and then which backup will be better if the starters are a no-go. I like Colin Kaepernick; he is what everyone thinks Tim Tebow is or should be. Good arm, fearless outside the pocket and very mobile. Jim Harbaugh has used him on wildcat plays and he has played well when Alex Smith has been out. I wish I could exude the same confidence on the oft-traveled Jason Campbell (is he still in this league?) the Bears defense have the capability of making the big plays but I trust the Niners meat and potatoes offense more than I do the Bears offense.

Pick-San Francisco

Last Week: 10-3-1 (Lock & Upset Correct)

Overall: 91-54-1

Locks: 7-3

Upsets: 4-6

NFL SCHEDULE – WEEK 11

Thursday, November 15

Dolphins (4-5) @  Bills (3-6)      

Ralph Wilson Stadium; Orchard, Park, NY 8:20 (NFLN)

Favorite Bills by 3

Last Week Dolphins lost to Titans 37-3, Bills lost to Patriots 37-31

Fast Fact The Dolphins have not scored a touchdown in its last six quarters

The Dolphins got housed in their own crib by the Titans (the Titans???) and their offense has hit a dangerous lull. The Bills are the most confusing team in the AFC, they have yet to play complete game in a few weeks. The offense shows up when the defense is AWOL, then the defense comes to ball when the offense is MIA…make sense? No? Neither does this matchup of long time divisional rivals, flip a coin and go with the home team in the cold night in Western New York.

Pick-Buffalo

The rest of the Picks will post tomorrow

A decent week by your humble scribe, though there were a couple I wish I could have taken back (mention the Titans pick to me and you might get a knuckle sandwich) But aside from the surprises here and there (No one saw Doug Martin having that monster day...no you didnt!) everything dropped pretty much as I called it. Much earlier than last week, for your perusal consumption, review and approval are this weeks picks. Odds being provided by bodog.net for entertainment and comparison purposes only. I say that to keep from getting any backlash from the gamblers out there that bet the lines and want to look for me, you are on your own with the no-neck bookie enforcers if you get took.

BYE WEEK – Arizona (4-5); Cleveland (2-7); Green Bay (6-3); Washington (3-6).

Sunday, November 11

Falcons  (8-0) @ Saints (3-5)

Mercedes-Benz Superdome,  New Orleans  1:00 (FOX)

Favorite Falcons by 3

Last Week Falcons defeated Cowboys 19-13, Saints defeated Eagles 28-13

Fast Fact The Falcons are the 15th team since the NFL schedule was expanded to 16 games in 1978 to start 8-0

Tosay the very least the Falcons are ummm...flying high. Their workmanlike win over the Cowboys showed many pundits that they can grind out wins that while not aesthetically pleasing are wins nonetheless. They are facing the Saints who have gotten off the 0-4 mat and are still very much a dangerous squad. This game screams trap as this is rareifed air for the Birds. Drew Brees is throwing a ton of passes and I know the Saints defense is nothing short of putrid, I just have that gut feeling that the Falcons are way overdue for a flat game. I think its here. 

Pick-New Orleans (Upset of the Week)           

Bills (3-5) @ Patriots (5-3) 

Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, MA 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Bills lost to Texans 21-9, Patriots were on a bye

Last Week  Patriots by 11

Fast Fact The Patriots have won 11 straight meetings in Foxboro against the Bills.

The Pats rested and refreshed after a London style beatdown of the Rams in Week 8 return home to face a disappointing Bills team who's offense is MIA and defense is playing way below expectations. The Pats may not be the conferences glamour team this year but they are still the divisions resident bully and the Bills are getting a phobia about playing Foxboro...but can you blame them?

Pick- New England (Lock of the Week)             

Broncos (5-3) @ Panthers (2-6)

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Broncos by 4½

Last Week  Broncos defeated Bengals 31-23, Panthers defeated Redskins 21-13

Fast Fact This is only the second time that these teams have faced each other in Charlotte.      

The Broncos make a rare trip to Tobacco road to face the Panthers who are as tough a cat to figure as any. While Im not going to say Peyton Manning is in beast mode, he is rounding back into the form that we have grown so accustomed to over the years and the Broncos are playing well because of it. On the other sideline, Cam Newton shows flashes of his brilliant rookie year but they have been just that flashes. This might be the best defense the Broncos have faced outside of the Texans, but I have the feeling Manning will do just enough to get the win

PIck-Denver     

Lions (4-4)  @ Vikings  (5-4)

Mall of America Field @ HHH Metrodome;  Minneapolis 1:00 (FOX)

Favorite No line due to C. Johnson injury status

Last Week Lions defeated Jaguars 31-14, Vikings lost to Seahawks 30-20

Fast Fact The Lions have not won back to back games in Minnesota since 1990-91

As most of you know your humble scribe is Vikings fan and watching this team week after week can be painful, aside from the resurgent resplendant running of Adrian Peterson, on the offensive side the Vikings are not very good. This puts way too much pressure on a decent defense that has to be on the field too long. A strong offense like the Lions is not what they need to see. Though their offense is a bit weakened with the questionable status of Calvin Johnson. I know betting on the Vikings offense is dicey at best, but Im not sold on the Lions on the road. I know Im gonna regret it but...

Pick-Minnesota            

NY Giants (6-3)  @ Bengals (3-5)

Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati 1:00 (FOX)

Favorite Giants by 4½

Last Week Giants lost to Steelers 24-20, Bengals lost to Broncos 31-23

Fast Fact The home team has won every matchup  

The Giants were cruising along against the Steelers when their offense went in to hibernation in the 4th. The Bengals are turning back into the same reliable hot mess that have been before. Im thinking the G-Men will sit back wait for the inevitable Bengals implosion and pounce. Eli Manning likely got some crib notes from his brother after he torched the Bengals D for three scores. This wont be pretty if you are a Bengals fan.

Pick-New York Giants       

Raiders (3-5) @ Ravens (6-2) 

M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Ravens by 9

Last Week   Ravens defeated Browns 25-15, Raiders lost to Buccaneers 42-32

Fast Fact The Ravens have won 6 of 7 meetings against the Raiders but Raiders QB is 9-4 against the Ravens.  

The Raiders got run over, literally as rookie Doug Martin ran hog wild against them, and now they have to go cross country to face the rugged running of Ray Rice...That just smacks of a bad time. The Ravens arent winning pretty but they are winning. The west coast team coming east is usually dead meat and Im not budging from that one especially as bad as the Raiders played the last time they came east, im not getting suckered again.

Pick-Baltimore         

Chargers (4-4) @ Buccaneers (4-4)

Raymond James Stadium, Tampa  1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Buccaneers by 3

Last Week Chargers defeated Chiefs 31-13, Buccaneers defeated Raiders 42-32

Fast Fact Bucs rookie phenom RB Doug Martin became the first RB since 1940 to have three rushing TD's of 45+ yards in the same game.

Speaking of the hot Bucs runner he is fast making believers of a lot of people, your humble scribe included. The Chargers defense will present a decent challenge. Though like their west coast brethern are making a cross country flight to play an early game in the East. Im thinking that Martin will have another solid day running past the heavy legged Charger defense. Philip Rivers is trying like a scout but his offensive weapons are simply just not what they used to be.

Pick-Tampa Bay            

Titans (3-6) @ Dolphins (4-4)                                        

SunLife Stadium, Miami Gardens 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Dolphins by 6

Last Week Titans lost to Bears 51-20, Dolphins lost to Colts 23-20

Fast Fact After allowing a modest 317 last season the Titans have given up 308 in 9 games so far this season.

Titans owner Bud Adams apologized for the Titans horrid performance against the Bears in which it seems like everyone on the Bears defense was playing scoop and score. The Titans will have no respite against a Dolphins defense that plays tough and despite a couple close losses are playing every game full tilt. Ryan Tannehill has tp be the most overlooked rookie QB's but has been quietly putting up solid if unspectacular numbers. I dont trust the Titans hit or miss offense any further than the end of my nose. Im not buying them going in South FLA and getting a win.

Pick-Miami           

NY Jets (3-5) @ Seahawks (5-4)                                      

Century Link Field, Seattle 4:05 (CBS)

Favorite Seahawks by 6

Last Week Jets were on a bye, Seahawks defeated Vikings 30-20

Fast Fact Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has thrown for eight touchdowns and no interceptions at home with a solid 120.2 QB rating

Ther Jets have had better than a week to lick their collective wounds after nasty beating at home, the grinns and jeers from Jets head poobah Rex Ryan are getting old ral fast. The Jets go cross country to face a wildly inconsistent Seahawks squad that has a devil of a time staying out its own way in spite of the dymanic running of Mrshawn Lynch. This team is basic going on the growing pains of rookie QB Russell Wilson. Though it wouldnt surprise me to see the Jets confound everyone and steal an unlikely win in the Pacific Northwest, Im just not seeing it happen. CenturyLink field is not a place to steal a win.

Pick-Seattle           

Cowboys (3-5) @ Eagles (3-5)                            

Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia 4:25 (FOX)

Favorite Cowboys by 1½

Last Week Cowboys lost to Falcons 19-13, Eagles lost to Saints 28-13

Fast Fact This is the first time since 1990 that both teams come into the matchup with losing records

How far have these two teams fallen? Both desperate for a season boosting win, both with enigmatic underacheiveing quarterbacks, both with coaches under heavy fire. Expect to see both team lay it all out. Im leery of picking the Pokes for the simple reason is that they are so undependable to pick for or against. The Eagles are just as bad, with Michael Vick ducking and dodging onrushing lineman behind a porous line.   This is likely going to be an im going to regret this pick, (My homies Reg & Darrel will hear about it spades) but I will trust the Eagles can defend their house against the Pokes.

Pick-Philadelphia        

Rams (3-5) @  49ers (6-2)                         

Candlestick Park, San Francisco 4:25 FOX

Favorite 49ers by 11½ 

Last Week Both Teams were on a bye

Fast Fact The 49ers are allowing an NFL low 12.9 points per game.

The Niners are clicking on all cylinders while the Rams while showing marked improvement are still the Rams and can get housed at will. Witness the Pats London shellacking two weeks ago. This one could get ugly fast.

Pick-San Francisco             

Texans (7-1) @ Bears (7-1)

Soldier Field, Chicago  8:20 (NBC) 

Favorite Bears by 1

Last Week Texans defeated Bills 21-9, Bears defeated Titans 51-20

Fast Fact Since Lovie Smith became coach Bears lead the NFL in takeaways

Easily the marquee game of the week, the conferences best teams meet in the Windy City. The Bears defense is getting scary good and dont need Jay Cutler to put up herculean performances. While not a game manager, Cutler does what he needs to do,  has been limiting his tendency to make dumb mistakes and has been winning in spades, the same can be said for Houston where Matt Schaub, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson have been having decent seasons but nothing to really shout about, but that defense? Ohhhhh. The Texans lost Brian Cushing and didnt miss a step as J.J. Watt has been the defensive anchor. This will be a tight contest, but Im thinking the Bears are overdue for a klunker and the Texans are overdue for a chance to shine in primetime.

Pick-Houston            

Monday, November 12

Chiefs  (1-7)  @  Steelers  (5-3)

Heinz Field, Pittsburgh  8:30 (ESPN)

Favorite Steelers by 12½ 

Last Week Chiefs lost to Chargers 31-13, Steelers defeated Giants 24-20

Fast Fact The Chiefs are the first team since 1929 to have never held a lead in any of their first seven games in regulation.  

 Im sure that there will be a ref on standby waiting to cover the Chiefs up like a punchy boxer that has been beat on too much. The Steelers are rounding into their usual ready to roll in to playoff contention form, while the Chiefs are simply putrid. This is another one that ESPN is wondering, how did we get stuck with another clunker game.  

Pick-Pittsburgh       

Last Week 10-4 (lock correct, upset incorrect)

Overall: 81-51

Locks: 6-3

Upsets 3-6