Tagged with "Tennessee"
LSU Football: The Big Picture
Category: NCAA
Tags: ALABAMA AUBURN FLORIDA FLORIDA ST. LSU MIAMI MICHIGAN MISS ST. NEBRASKA OHIO ST. OKLAHOMA OREGON TENNESSEE TEXAS

I had a couple more LSU thoughts. I never fully process everything the first night. As you may know, LSU has not had an undefeated season since 1958. Now that Iíve seen two national championships, really my long-term hope as a fan is to see another, so the first loss will always be somewhat frustrating.

There has been a game or two every season going back as long as I remember where I get intensely frustrated with the coaches and so forth. I was going to detail several of them, but I decided it would be pointless griping to do so. Hopefully it wonít happen again this season even if there are losses. I think I gave an adequate explanation of why I felt that way in the post-game blog.

I do have some hope that this season can turn out well. Some of the prognosticators have already written LSU off as a contender, but how many one-loss teams have been written off for the two-team playoff (aka BCS) only to come back into the picture or even to play in the title game? There was a one-loss team just about every year.

Of course, in 2007 we had a one-loss team many did write off at #1 (Ohio St.) and a two-loss team at #2 (LSU) going into the championship. If they have to finish with one loss to make the playoff, that means they have to win nine in a row to do so. I certainly wouldnít put money on that, but I would be less surprised by that than I was by everything that happened in the 2011 calendar year.

Les Miles and LSU after the Tigers won the SEC Championship in 2011.

Les Miles and LSU after the Tigers won the SEC Championship in 2011.

To paraphrase the Mark Twain quote, the reports of LSUís long-term demise are greatly exaggerated.

Iím not worried about it yet. The last time I was worried about it was 2009 when LSU lost to Houston Nuttís unranked Ole Miss Rebels. Disastrous time management and Les Milesí instructing quarterback Jordan Jefferson to spike the ball had caused time to run out on LSUís final possession at the Ole Miss 6-yard line (Final score: Ole Miss 25, LSU 23), not that they really deserved to win anyway. That was LSUís 8th loss in 20 games. Rather than spiraling downward from there, LSU has gone 47-10 since the 2009 season ended. If youíre winning over 80% playing the type of competition LSU typically plays, youíre doing something right.

However, a long-term decline is inevitable. I donít think a single early-season loss to a veteran dual-threat quarterback is a sign itís all going to hell in a hand-basket, but at some point LSU is not going to be a serious title threat for a while. It will even happen to Alabama. Saban may have to retire, but it will happen. It wasnít that long ago that Alabama had no serious national-title-contending teams for a decade or so. When they did win in 1992, it was their first national championship since 1979.

Anyway, if LSU has peaked, it has still been a period of success to be extremely proud of. Compare the Tigers to other top programs from around 2003 (the year of LSUís first national championship since that 1958 undefeated team I mentioned).

Seasons with losses of four games or more since 2003 (inclusive):
LSU 2, with two BCS championships, one runner-up in the same period.
Ohio St. 2, with two BCS runners-up
Oklahoma 2, with one BCS runner-up
Oregon 4, with one BCS runner-up
USC 4, with one BCS championship, one runner-up (and one AP title)
Texas 4, with one BCS championship, one runner-up
Florida 5, with two BCS championships
Auburn 6, with one BCS championship, one runner-up
Florida St. 7, with one BCS championship
Michigan 7
Miami 8
Nebraska 9

LSU has won two national championships since the last time either Oklahoma or Ohio St. won one, so I wouldnít switch places with them either.

Tennessee had won a national championship in 1998, just 5 years before LSU won in 2003, but the Vols havenít had a season with fewer than four losses since 2004. They had a decent run in 2007, but the loss to LSU in the SEC championship game (after Les Miles told everyone to have a great day) was Tennesseeís fourth. Thatís certainly an example of a program I hope LSU is not similar to in the foreseeable future.

Alabama wasnít really a relevant team in the early 2000s, but theyíve had 4 seasons with four losses or more in case you wanted to know, all from 2003 to 2007. Of course, since then the Tide has had three BCS championships and two Sugar Bowl berths.

Tennessee and Alabama were the only programs that won a major national title from 1992 forward that I did not include on the list above. I included Oregon, which hasnít won any, but they arguably should have made the BCS championship game in 2001 and have been a consistently strong program since, so I thought they deserved inclusion.

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Final Preseason Thoughts: College Football Playoff and SEC scheduling
Category: NCAA
Tags: ALABAMA ARKANSAS AUBURN COLLEGE FOOTBALL FLORIDA GEORGIA KENTUCKY LSU MISS ST. MISSOURI OLE MISS S CAROLINA TENNESSEE TEXAS A&M

The blog is in two parts today (this was originally posted yesterday, and I wrote it all before any games took place if you're wondering about the title). The first is about more information Iíve learned about the college football playoff (CFP) and the rankings system, including information the committee will access and conference tiebreakers. The second part is a general response to the constant attacks on SEC schedules. I donít know how people forget about some of these games just because there is a Sun Belt or FCS team on the schedule in the same season, but Iíll talk more about that in that section.

New symbol for the new system , but no one is quite sure how it will work in practice.

New symbol for the new system , but no one is quite sure how it will work in practice.

Part I: CFP, tiebreakers, and statistical analysis

I was reading about how the CFP are going to work, and theyíre actually going to be over two days, so they wonít have results until Tuesday. Usually you at least had a good idea of the BCS on Sunday, so that will take an adjustment. Maybe more people will look at things like computer ratings while theyíre waiting. I was thinking computer ratings might decline drastically without the BCS, but now Iím not so sure. There is, after all, a lot of interest in various RPI and similar measures in college basketball.

You can read this for the voting procedure, but I donít know how illuminating it is:http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/press-releases/college-football-playoff-releases-details-of-selection-committee-procedures
One of those adjustments is the SEC will have to look for a different option to determine a divisional champion in the event of a three-way tie. The Mountain West is still apparently planning to use the CFP to determine home-field advantage for its championship, but Iím not sure about tie-breakers. Also, the Big XII will use the final rankings before the bowls to determine who gets the championship designation in the event of a tie. These procedures donít have to be in place at the start of the season; but if there has been a final decision, I have not seen it. The SEC first decided to use the BCS for a three-way tie in late October, early November one year.

One option the SEC is considering is to compare the strengths of the inter-divisional games. I think this would only be if there is a three-way tie where all three teams beat one of the other teams in the tie, and all three teams had the same divisional record. For instance, letís say LSU but beats Auburn and Alabama, Auburn loses to Ole Miss, and Alabama loses to Auburn, and all three finish 7-1 in conference. LSU would make the title game both for best divisional record and for winning head-to-head. If you make it so LSU beats Auburn, who beats Alabama, who beats LSU (which is what we had last year, except in this scenario LSU doesnít lose to anyone else), then they would remain tied through both of the steps I mentioned. So only then would you look at teams outside the division. I would hope they would look at divisional record of the better team first, but it may just be adding up the records of the two teams.

I read something else about things the committee could consider that I found interesting:
ďYou make more big plays than your opponent, you stay on schedule, you tilt the field, you finish drives, and you fall on the ball. Explosiveness, efficiency, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers are the five factors to winning football games.
ē If you win the explosiveness battle (using [points per possession]), you win 86 percent of the time.
ē If you win the efficiency battle (using Success Rate), you win 83 percent of the time.
ē If you win the drive-finishing battle (using points per trip inside the 40), you win 75 percent of the time.
ē If you win the field position battle (using average starting field position), you win 72 percent of the time.
ē If you win the turnover battle (using turnover margin), you win 73 percent of the time.Ē
Source:http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2014/07/22/the-role-analytics-will-play-in-choosing-the-college-football-playoffs/

Something worth reading from the Washington Post. Wonders never cease. Anyway, if you donít know, success rate is measured by how often you have a successful down. A typical team has about a 40% success rate. A success is getting 50% or more of the required yardage on first down (for instance, 5 yards on 1st and 10), 70% or more on second down (7 yards on 2nd and 10), and 100% on third and fourth down. Success rate stops counting success if a team is up by more than 28 in the first quarter, 24 in the second quarter, 21 in the third quarter, or 16 in the fourth quarter.

I got that information from here:http://www.footballstudyhall.com/2011/3/15/2050106/the-toolbox-offensive-success-rates

Thatís a really useful metric. Since teams usually alternate possessions, I donít think the first one is as helpful in analyzing teams even though itís a better predictor on average.

For another aside, I found it odd that when I was reading about the playoff, I came across this quote from Lloyd Carr: ďI would hope no conference would have two teams in the four.Ē

Interesting coming from the guy who was all irritated he didnít get a re-match in the BCS title game against the same team he had just lost to. Could you imagine having had Auburn replay Alabama last year? That would have been ridiculous. I even thought it was questionable when Alabama played LSU, and no, that wasnít because of the result. At least it wasnít the final game for either team though.

Four times in the past five years, the final BCS standings did have a second SEC team in the top four, just so you know. Not that Iím likely to complain much if another team (especially a conference champion) were selected over a borderline second team from the SEC though.

Part II: Recent SEC Non-conference Schedules

Also, I wanted to talk about SEC non-conference schedules. Why is it that if you play four teams out-of-conference and three of them go to bowl games, people pretend you didnít play anyone and just mention the fourth team? Something like, ďtypical SEC, lol, Charleston Southern.Ē

I also noticed that last year, for instance, SEC teams played 1.5 games out of conference against BCS opponents (the automatic-bid conferences + Notre Dame) to the Pac-12ís 1.25. Granted, the SEC has an additional non-conference slot, but thatís part of the point I brought up last week. Even if you schedule well with your three games, you necessarily hurt competition between conferences and reduce the interesting non-conference games by increasing the conference schedule from 8 games to 9 games. I wonder if thatís part of the reason other conferences want the SEC to do that. There would then be a fewer sample of games to justify the SEC being superior to other conferences, and that assertion would be more subjective.

Anyway, to get to the specific teams, this season is a little unusual in some regards. Vanderbilt and Mississippi St. are both teams that typically have a decent opponent, but they donít this year. It might be in part to try to ensure bowl eligibility. The Bulldogs had to upset Ole Miss to get it last year.

Since 2002 (just seemed like a good spot, the last dozen seasons), Vanderbilt has played @Michigan, Navy (home and home), Gerogia Tech (home and home), Northwestern (home and home), @TCU, and Wake Forest (seven times, mix of home and away). Since 2002, Mississippi St. has played Oregon (home and home), Houston (three times), @West Virginia, Georgia Tech (home and home), and Oklahoma St. (neutral).

Going forward, Iím going to mention this season, followed by major games since 2002. There might be a couple of sentences after that, which Iím not claiming are great scheduling, but some of them only turned out not to be good due to luck.

Alabama plays West Virginia this year. The Tide has been having an easy time of things outside the division, but either Florida or Tennessee might have a good year. Since 2002, Alabama has played Oklahoma (home and home), South Florida, Northern Illinois (normally wouldnít count MAC teams, but that might be an exception), Penn St. (home and home), Clemson (neutral), Virginia Tech (twice, both neutral), Michigan (neutral), and Houston. They also played a really good Hawaii team and a couple of winning Southern Miss teams in that stretch, although the Golden Eagles and the Warriors were two of the worst teams last season.

Ole Miss plays Boise St. and ULL, which I normally wouldnít mention, but theyíve been good the last couple of years. Since 2002, Ole Miss has played Texas Tech (home and home). Texas (home and home), Missouri (home and home), Fresno St. (home and home), @Wake Forest, and BYU.

LSUís only big non-conference game this year is the opener against Wisconsin in Houston. Since 2002, LSU has played Virginia Tech (home and home), Arizona (home and home), Oregon St., @Arizona St., West Virginia (home and home), Washington (home and home), Oregon (neutral), North Carolina (neutral), and TCU (neutral). They also played Fresno St., but that was a bad year for the Bulldogs in 2006.

As an aside, someone mentioned LSU played ďeveryoneĒ one year. Iím not sure what season he had in mind. When they won the SEC in 2007, they didnít play either of the top SEC East teams during the regular season, but they did play Virginia Tech out of conference and three SEC East teams who went to bowl games. In 2011, they beat Oregon and West Virginia, but they didnít play Georgia until the championship game. Florida was the best regular-season SEC East opponent, but the Gators only went 7-6 that season.

Arkansas has been rightly criticized for some of its schedules lately, but this year they travel to Texas Tech and host Northern Illinois. Since 2002, Arkansas has played Boise St., South Florida, Texas (three times, two on the road), Tulsa (twice), USC (home and home), Texas A&M (home and home), and Rutgers (home and home).

Auburn travels to Kansas St. this year. Since 2002, the plains Tigers have played Syracuse, Georgia Tech (home and home). USC (home and home), Washington St. (twice), South Florida, West Virginia (home and home), Clemson (home and home and a third, neutral game), and the other leg of the Kansas St. home and home.

Since there is one in each division, Iíll address the two new teams in the transition between the divisions.Texas A&M isnít playing anyone to speak of, but they did recently schedule Arkansas when they were in the Big XII. Also, I think theyíve been more than willing to continue their series with Texas, so I donít completely blame them. But I will leave out their other recent opponents since they werenít SEC at the time. Missouriís game against Central Florida could be very interesting. The black and gold Tigers didnít really play anyone last season, but they did play Arizona St., Central Florida, and Syracuse in 2012, their first year in the SEC.

Tennessee travels to Oklahoma, and they shouldnít be expected to do much else, although their Utah St. (the opener) hasnít been bad. Since 2002, the Vols have played Miami (home and home), Fresno St., Notre Dame (home and home), Cal (home and home), UCLA (home and home), Oregon (home and home), Cincinnati, and North Carolina St. (neutral).

Other than Clemson, South Carolinaplays East Carolina this year. Since 2002, the Gamecocks have played Clemson (every year), Virginia (home and home; they werenít so bad 12 years ago), Central Florida (home and home), North Carolina (home and home), North Carolina St. (home and home), Navy, and East Carolina.

Kentuckyís only big non-conference game is Louisville, whom they have played every year. I think theyíre another program that doesnít want to miss out if they do have a shot at bowl eligibility. Since 2002, the Wildcats have only played Indiana (three times) to go along with the Cardinals. The Wildcats did draw a couple good ďGroup of FiveĒ teams, Kent in 2012 (finished with 11 wins), Central Michigan (finished with 10 wins in 2006), and Western Kentucky (finished with 8 wins in 2013 and with 7 in 2011).

Georgiaís big games out of conference are the opener against Clemson and Georgia Tech to end the regular season. Since 2002, in addition to Georgia Tech every year, they have played Clemson (three times), Boise St. (twice), and Oklahoma St. (home and home). They played four Pac-12 teams that finished with losing records: a pair of games (home and home) with both Arizona St. and Colorado. They also played two teams I notice that finished with 8 wins, Central Michigan and Troy.

This year, Floridaís only meaningful game is against Florida St., whom theyíve played every year as long as I remember. But I donít really blame the Gators, being that they have to play the SEC East, Alabama, and LSU. Alabama might be overrated and LSU might just be a regular top 25 sort of team, but I doubt Alabama, LSU, and Florida St. will all be disappointing. Thatís not to mention Georgia, South Carolina, and Missouri.

Since 2002 (in addition to Florida St.), Florida has played Miami (four times, not counting the bowl game of course, two home and homes), South Florida, and Bowling Green. In almost every year, Florida also ends up playing another winning team. Iíll give a few examples. Louisiana Tech went 7-4 in 2005, Southern Miss went 9-5 in 2006, Troy went 8-4 in 2007 (and 9-4 in 2009), Hawaii went 7-7 in 2008, and ULL went 9-4 in 2012.

Some of those lists are pretty impressive, some arenít so much; but I think the four teams who have annual rivalry games out of conference (South Carolina, Florida, Georgia, and Kentucky) deserve a little bit of slack. Also, Iíll admit that even the teams that have scheduled well will still typically have a couple easy wins per year. But the idea that the SEC is en masse avoiding all competition is mostly based on people trying to brush aside how strong the SEC is from year to year.

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How a New SEC Scheduling Format Might Look Part II
Category: NCAA
Tags: ALABAMA ARKANSAS AUBURN FLORIDA GEORGIA KENTUCKY LSU MISSISSIPPI ST. MISSOURI OLE MISS SEC SOUTH CAROLINA TENNESSEE TEXAS A&M

So in Part I, I talked about the arguments and some reasons why the SEC could be moving to a nine-game schedule. My reason for coming up with scenarios is because I would hope that the additional games would be the most compelling and logical ones possible. This is why in this scenario I would want the SEC to move to two permanent opponents rather than one permanent opponent with two in rotation.

My first group of proposals is based upon the divisions as they are. I talked about potential realignment last May, so I donít want to rehash all those arguments again, but Iíll add a few possibilities for match=ups in a realigned SEC at the end.

The first is what I believe to be the most traditional approach. Under each team is listed my two proposed permanent opponents. I relied on this site for most-common opponents:http://football.stassen.com/records/all-opponent.html. It doesnít count all the turn of the (20th) century games, but thatís not really important to this analysis.

Anyway, bolded opponents are the most commonly-played interdivisional games; italicized opponents are the second-most commonly played. What is true for one team is not always true of the other. For instance, South Carolina rarely played any SEC West teams before joining the SEC. They played Alabama and LSU the most, but theyíre nowhere near the top of most commonly-played SEC opponents of either LSU or Alabama.

There were a few spots, such as with the four newer teams (Arkansas, Missouri, Texas A&M, and South Carolina), where the match-up is based more on geography than history, but where I didnít think the connection was obvious, I put a mark next to the team with a note below. Some people might have an easier time looking at the map.

SEC East SEC West
Missouri Auburn
-Texas A&M -Georgia
-Arkansas -South Carolina#
Arkansas Georgia
-Auburn -Missouri
-Tennessee% -Ole Miss&
Florida Texas A&M
-LSU -Missouri
-Miss. St.* -South Carolina^
South Carolina LSU
-Auburn# -Florida
-Texas A&M^ -Kentucky
Kentucky Alabama
-LSU -Tennessee
-Miss. St.~ -Vanderbilt
Tennessee Miss. St.
-Alabama -Florida*
-Arkansas& -Kentucky~
Vanderbilt Ole Miss
-Ole Miss -Vanderbilt
-Alabama -Georgia%

Notes
*Florida does have a longer series with Auburn, but Miss. St. is still a traditional series. The Gators have played Miss. St. more than theyíve played Vanderbilt, Tennessee, or South Carolina. Between 1955 and 1992 (when the SEC was first divided into two divisions), Florida actually played Mississippi St. more than it played LSU.
On the other side, Miss. St. has played no team of the SEC East more than it has played Florida.

#These two teams admittedly have not faced each other often. Before South Carolina joined the SEC, there were only 4 games played between the two.
Still, it makes a lot of sense geographically. This is better for South Carolina than either Mississippi St. or Arkansas, neither of whom have a reason to play the Gamecocks (other than recent custom).
LSU, Ole Miss, and Alabama were the only teams the Gamecocks had historical series against before South Carolina joined the SEC, but the Gamecocks are #6 in the SEC East for all three teams, ahead of only Missouri.

&Other than South Carolina, which Arkansas was forced to play when both joined the SEC, Tennessee is Arkansasís most-played opponent in the SEC East.
Tennessee is more accustomed to playing every other team in the SEC West, apart from Texas A&M, but again, this is a decent geographical pairing.

^There is no good reason for South Carolina to play Texas A&M other than the fact that theyíre both in the Southern part of their respective divisions and both are among the four newest SEC teams.

~Mississippi St. has only played Kentucky two fewer times than Ole Miss has. Mississippi St. has also only played Tennessee four more times than it has played Kentucky, but it has played Kentucky more in the last 60 years.

%Ole Miss and Georgia are each third on the otherís list. Ole Missís second is Tennessee, and Georgiaís second is Alabama. Since 1955, Ole Miss has actually played Georgia 16 more times than Alabama has. In the same period, Ole Miss has played Georgia two more times than it has played Tennessee.

sec-conference-map traditional

I donít have the energy to make another chart like the one above, and itís after 10 on the east coast, so Iím just going to post two pictures for each arrangement below. One will be a screen-capped list similar to the above, and the other will be a map showing how the teams are matched.

The traditional proposal above does not try to take into account competitive balance. I have one more than also does not take into account competitive balance, but it works better for some teams and not as well for others:

Unbalanced
sec-conference-map unbalanced

The below was my first attempt to change some of the opponents so that it would try to have each two-team combination balance out competitively. For instance, in the last one I posted, I can see someone from Auburn being upset with having to play both Georgia and Florida every year while Alabama would be playing Tennessee and Vanderbilt instead (even though Vandy has had a couple good seasons lately).

balanced 1
sec-conference-map balanced 1

The fourth one I did was more of a hybrid. Teams would be a little less happy with it due to where these programs are right now; but on the other hand, it makes a little more sense historically than the one I just posted.

balanced 2sec-conference-map balanced 2

The below was the only series of match-ups that made sense if the simplest realignment takes place, which would be switching Missouri and Auburn. As I mentioned before, Auburn is clearly to the East of Vanderbilt of the SEC East as well as all the other SEC West teams. Auburn is nearly as far East as Knoxville (Tennessee) and Lexington (Kentucky). Obviously, we would want to have a permanent series with Alabama, but two other major series for Auburn are Georgia and Florida, which would both become intra-divisional series. Missouri of course is among the three westernmost teams in the entire SEC. Not coincidentally, three of the most logical opponents, Arkansas, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss, are all in the SEC West.

AU-MU realignedsec-conference-map AU-MU

The final maps are two variations of permanent opponents in a North/South alignment. The one that makes the most geographic sense is presented first, but I think there might be some griping especially by Florida and Auburn.

North South 1sec-conference-map north-south

The second proposal would make things difficult for both South Carolina and Georgia, but being that they could both be expected to be in the title race every year and we would take Florida out of the mix (by moving them to the new SEC South, made up mostly of the current SEC West), I donít think theyíd have too much right to complain. All four teams that have recently won BCS titles would be in the South.

North South 2sec-conference-map north-south 2

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How a New SEC Scheduling Format Might Look Part I
Category: NCAA
Tags: ALABAMA ARKANSAS AUBURN NCAA FOOTBALL FLORIDA GEORGIA KENTUCKY LSU MISSISSIPPI ST. MISSOURI OLE MISS SEC S CAROLINA TEnnessee

IA) Why Nine Games and Why Talk about It Now

The main reason for writing this is discussion of who should play whom in the event the SEC does adopt a nine-game schedule, but I feel like I would be remiss if I did not have a full discussion of the issues involved in this. But in a fit of preseason enthusiasm, I wrote about some more global issues. †So if you're not interested in the SEC specifically, you still might be interested in this discussion.

As a preview, I expect to release the second part sometime this weekend (as early as Friday), and sometime early next week (as early as Sunday), I will release my preseason rankings. I believe there is some kind of MAC game a week from today, and then there are some games of real interest next Thursday, so I definitely plan to post by then. I think I know what my top 25 will be, but I want to try to have a somewhat presentable introduction to the season.

Iíve read in some places that itís inevitable that the SEC schedule will eventually move to 9 games. Iím not sure if thatís true though. That would mean an SEC champion who makes the national championship would play 10 games against SEC teams as well as two (additional) games against the top four teams in the country. With three additional games, thatís almost an NFL season. Others expect yet another game to be added since many anticipate itís inevitable for the four-team playoff to expand to eight.

So thatís one argument against. Another is the SEC teams place a high premium (literally) on home games. Thatís a lot of revenue lost if you take just one away. Teams like Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, and Florida have longstanding home and home series with in-state rivals. I suppose those could be made so that theyíre home games in the years where there are 5 road SEC games, but some programs want to try to get eight home games.

Another part of the argument against five road games is those teams are at a distinct disadvantage. Vanderbilt and Mississippi St. have been less than intimidating at times in recent years, but I wouldnít expect an easy win in either place anymore. Kentucky may be the closest thing to an easy win in the SEC now, but they seem to get good crowds that show up and influence the games in the seasons when the Wildcats are competitive.

There were good arguments against the SEC expanding to 14 teams though, and of course that happened anyway. So I wanted to consider some options the conference would have in that case.

The SEC has stated that a change if made will not take place until 2016, but the conversation should begin now about what to do in either scenario. Since adding Texas A&M and Missouri, this will be the first season where the intended rivalries will start taking place. For instance, it will be the first year Arkansas will play nearby Missouri rather than South Carolina, which never made any sense except to make Lou Holtz face his former team when Holtz coached the Gamecocks. The last two seasons maintained the existing rivalries and scheduled other game on an ad hoc basis.

I donít feel this is appropriate for a number of reasons. One is teams should be able to schedule out-of-conference opponents in advance. Part of the problem with the number of games played against FCS and bottom-rung FBS opponents is the result of such contracts being cancelled at the last moment. So one school pays the other a cancellation fee, which is then payed to a third school to come in for usually just one game that season.

Competitive FBS teams are rarely willing to do this, and other teams expect to be paid for the expected humiliation (which doesnít always pan out, of course, but they still get to keep the money). Sometimes the team that cancelled simply wanted to play another home game, so that might not result in a good match-up for them either. I think this is one of the reasons LSU started accepting these neutral-site games. Some recent last-minute attempts to land an opponent did not go well.

Another reason is recruiting. Letís say an SEC East team is recruiting a player from Texas. He might want to know how many games his family can travel to, so he would want to know how many times in the next four or five years that team might play at Texas A&M, at LSU, and at Arkansas. In some cases, the parents might care even more than the player. They might want to go to a certain number of games regardless; but in deciding between schools, how much travel to expect is a valid question.

To simplify matters, Iím going to explain three numbers for a scheduling format. The SEC currently operates a 6-1-1 format. This means there are six divisional games, one permanent interdivisional opponent, and one rotating interdivisional opponent. Under the current system, this means that for those opponents who are not permanent, they will only play a given team in the other division once every six years.

The Pac-12 has a nine-game schedule with fewer teams, so there are only two teams in the conference each year that a given team will not play. The format in the Pac-12, at least for the California teams, is 5-2-2. The format for the rest is 5-4, although due to the California teams all playing each other every year, this means that the four inland teams (Arizona, Arizona St., Colorado, and Utah) will play one Northern California team and three Pacific Northwest teams each year. The four Pacific Northwest teams will play three inland teams and one Southern California team each year.

To give you a hint as to Part II of this blog, Iím going to suggest a 6-2-1 format for the SEC (in the event it goes to nine games), so if you want, you can let me know what your favorite inter-divisional match-ups are.

IB) ďThe Same RulesĒ and Alternative Approaches

The head coach of Stanford, David Shaw, criticized the SEC for playing†cupcakes in November, presumably referring to the non-rivalry games played in SEC off-weeks. I donít understand why thatís a problem and having a late bye week isnít, but we donít have to go into that now.

To be fair, his team has every right to play a tough schedule, but thatís the only reason Stanford would have belonged in the conversation for the top four last year. Their loss to Utah would have taken a lot more to overcome than Alabamaís loss to Auburn after time expired. So if the SEC played the same number of conference games as the Pac-12, particularly if they are compared to a team with a competitive non-conference schedule (Alabama didnít really have one, apart from the opening game against Virginia Tech, but the Hokies were not very good last season), there goes Stanfordís argument. I doubt Shaw would see it as ďthe same rulesĒ if he actually got what he wanted and as a result two SEC teams made it ahead of a Stanford team who won the conference despite a loss.

It also annoys me that not playing nine conference games is considered backing down now. It used to be that you played 10 games in the whole regular season. So if we still stuck to that, it would mean that a team that went to a conference championship would play 0 games outside of conference before a bowl. Historically (until about 1970), a normal amount of games against your conference was six.

Before the SEC became the first team to expand to two divisions in 1992, it still only had seven conference games per team. The Pac-12 (then the Pac-10 of course) had some teams with only seven conference games as recently as 1985. Some teams in the ACC played only six conference games as recently as 1987.

So a more traditional balance between in-conference (8 with a possible 9th is still a lot more than 6 or 7) and out-of-conference is ďbacking downĒ now.

I think itís actually problematic to have fewer and fewer games that we can use to judge one conference against another, which can only fairly be done by looking at such games. Doing that, the SEC has typically done better than the Pac-12, including out-of-conference winning percentage overall, winning percentage against FCS teams, and winning percentage against BCS teams. This is including in years that were supposedly bad for the SEC but when the SEC had a lot of depth. I remember one year when Ed Oregon was the head coach of Ole Miss, the Rebels went undefeated out of conference and lost every game in conference.

Frankly, I would be happy if only the divisional games counted toward the race for the divisional title and six other games were at the discretion of the school. Maybe they should be encouraged to play at least two games against the other division, but if Florida were to play Florida St. and Miami in the same year, maybe even two additional SEC games wouldnít be necessary. On the other hand, if the Gators wanted to play LSU and Auburn every single year, their two most traditional SEC West rivals, they could. They would not necessarily have to rotate in Arkansas and Texas A&M, and the Aggies and Hogs might be just fine with that.

Then a team like LSU would have less of a problem with playing Florida every year. As strong as both teams have been in the last decade or so, they have never made the SEC title in the same year. The same is true with Auburn and Georgia. More often than not, only the winner of the game has a decent chance to win their respective division.

Itís probably best LSU didnít have to play Florida again in 2006, just because they probably would not have made the title game even if they had won the SEC, but itís still a good example of what can happen. Arkansas lost one game in the division. LSU lost one game in the division. LSU beat Arkansas. Who made the title game? Arkansas. What? Well, that year, LSU had to play a Florida team that would go on to win the national championship, on the road I might add. Arkansas didnít play any particularly good team from the SEC East, but it didnít matter. One fewer conference loss meant the Hogs went.

For an example from the SEC East, Iíll go back to 1997, when LSU got its only victory against Spurrier when he was at Florida (the game was in Baton Rouge). LSU did not win the SEC West, but they lost to Auburn due to the head-to-head tiebreaker. Even though Florida beat Tennessee (which of course didnít have to play LSU or Auburn) and Auburn for good measure, the Volunteers went to the SEC title game instead and narrowly defeated Auburn before losing to Nebraska in the Orange Bowl. Despite what should have been an SEC East (if not SEC) title and despite handing Florida St. its only loss of the season for the second year in a row, Florida was relegated to the dreaded Citrus Bowl.

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Sunday Musings #157
Category: User Showcase
Tags: NBA BostonCeltics LosAngelesClippers WNBA NewYorkLiberty WomensCollegeBasketball NFL DenverBroncos TonyDungy TennesseeLadyVols

While still kind of mystified and pleased over a recent development in my life...

BOSTON CELTICS

The Celtics signed Evan Turner this week bring the total number of players on the roster to 18. Even worse is the fact that Turner comes to a team that is already loaded with players of the same general skill level in both the shooting guard and small forward positions he usually plays.

Something has to break soon with GM Danny Ainge's plans to improve the team because right now, there is just too many good but not great players on the team. The plan to rebuild the team through trading players and/or draft picks to land a big time player to compliment Rajon Rondo looks to be going by the wayside. There†has been no movement towards landing Kevin Love from Minnesota (with Cleveland and Chicago leading that chase) and after that, there really isn't a†true franchise changing player left on the market.

It is going to take something drastic†for the Celtics to improve on 25-57 this coming season if they end up with essentially†the same roster they had last year.†

In other NBA news, the trial for control of the right to sell the LA Clippers took an interesting turn when the team's CEO testified that coach Doc Rivers would likely quit as coach if Donald Sterling is in charge when the next season begins. You can check that article out HERE.

If Doc Rivers quits or Chris Paul and other players refuse to play for the team because of their racist owner, this would make a rather interesting NBA season would it not? The refusal to play or coach for this particular reason would have to be something never before seen on a professional sports level, no?

And since the players are under a legally binding contract, does it open them up for lawsuits from the team for violating the contract. Now that would be an interesting Catch-22 for the league to find itself in the position of having to take sides in.

WNBA

The New York Liberty got back to work after the All-Star break and handed the L.A. Sparks a 66-64 loss.

The team ventured to Seattle the next night and came away with an 84-80 overtime†victory. The two wins improve them to 10-13 on the season.



By the way, you can check out an article on New York's Tina Charles HERE.

As for the Sparks, they fired coach Carol Ross (and assistant Gail Goestenkors resigned) and replaced her with the team's GM Penny Toler. This is an interesting move because Toler has never coached before. I mean if they were looking for a coach, I have 25 years of youth league coaching experience, that has to count for something more that ZERO EXPERIENCE at coaching of any kind.

It has been going on for a few years now, but this trend of hiring people with no actual coaching experience is a bit disturbing to me. Maybe it is because I was a coach (though with the way people keep asking me if I'm going back or suggesting coaching jobs that might become available, you'd think I was still an active coach) but every time I see someone with no coaching experience getting hired to run a team, I cringe a little and get a little bit of outrage worked up over what I see as a devaluation of the coaching profession.

Look, I know that I'm not in the same league as professional coaches, but I still believe that someone who has made coaching their vocation is a far better option than picking a neophyte like say,†Jason Kidd,†off the just retired as a player list and handing him the keys to the kingdom of coaching.

You can argue that a new coach can simply hire an experienced staff or that some newbie coaches have turned out to be really good at their jobs. The latter is certainly true but exceptions don't prove the rule. As for the former, if you expect a new coach to hire an experienced staff to help guide him as he or she learns on the job, why don't you just hire the experience in the first place. I'm sure players don't really care about who coaches them, but if I was a player I would want someone that I believe knows what the hell they are doing and not being more of a figurehead while the ones with actual coaching acumen do all the work.

WOMEN'S COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Tennessee - Ariel Massengale missed the last 16 games of the season last year after suffering a head injury. She's on the comeback trail now and you can read about it HERE.


UCLA - Guard Lauren Holiday announced the end of her playing career this past week due to head injuries. According to this ARTICLE, she suffered 4 head injuries during her freshman season and then 3 more head injuries (and a broken nose) during her sophomore season. She's going to remain on scholarship as an undergraduate assistant while pursuing her degree.

Boston College - The Eagles have signed guard Martina Mosetti, a 5 foot 9 inch guard out of Trieste, Italy. You can check out what they had to say about her addition to the team HERE.

NFL

Denver Broncos - My sympathies go out to the Broncos this week after the organization was hit by the body blow of owner Pat Bowlen stepping away from the team due to Alzheimer's Disease. You don't have to be a fan of the team to feel for them. Bowlen has been a great owner and representative of the NFL since taking over as owner 30 years ago.

The press release announcing the move was a bit badly worded in my opinion though. It said he was stepping away to focus on his battle with Alzheimer's Disease. This seems a big disingenuous to me given that it is hardly a battle when you've already lost the war when diagnosed with the disease in the first place. You don't get better, it is a despicably terminal disease and I just thought the way the wording of the statement tried to make it sound like he was actually going to win the battle.

Tony Dungy - The former coach found himself in hot water this week after making comments about Michael Sam. Dungy said he wouldn't have drafted Sam because of all the distraction that Sam being gay would bring to the team.

Now, given Dungy's religious avocation and all the discriminatory things his faith would allow him to feel comfortable getting away with, the comments blew up into a scandal (fueled by ESPN of course).

But as much as I hate being in the position of having to defend anyone of faith, what Dungy said really didn't strike me as coming from a position of Dungy expressing his religious faith. Rather, I thought he was expressing a football coach outlook on the situation.

While Dungy has always been portrayed as a cool, calm and collected opposite of the stereotype of a mad scientist football coach, you don't get to the top of the NFL without a little bit of that 100% focus that comes with being a detail oriented madman.

And that's what I think this is. Yes, making the comments is a bit stupid given the state of the world these days, but last I checked wasn't Dungy answering a question put to him? Asked and answered, no?

And what is so strange about a coach not wanting to deal with someone or something that could serve as a sideshow to the business of putting together a football team to try and compete for the championship.

Jeff Fisher deserves kudos for being willing to at least attempt to take this on. Let's remember that Michael Sam hasn't actually made the Rams yet, shall we? But just because Fisher accepts the challenge of having every question (Did your defense†screw up†that goal line stand because Michael Sam is on the team?) devolving into a referendum on Sam being gay, doesn't mean every coach would be as willing or open minded. But it doesn't always mean that they are doing it as a form of discrimination.

Of course, Dungy backtracked his statement the next day and the tempest in a teapot died down but now he's been tarred and feathered in the media for expressing his opinion and there is no walking that back.

I hope Michael Sam makes the Rams, I really do. Not because he's a gay football player but rather because the football player making the NFL is the culmination of a path started in pee wee football and that is something anyone should aspire to and others admire their dedication in pursuit of that goal. Sam has repeatedly said he just wants to be a football player. I think it is time every outside party start covering the story that way.

MISCELLANEOUS

Books - I finished reading the Michael Connelly book The Gods of Guilt. It is the latest in his Lincoln Lawyer series. It was a decent enough read but it took darn near forever for me to really get into the book. Not a whole lot of fireworks.

TV - MTV announced that they will air a series based on the Terry Brooks Sword of Shannara book series. The show will be called Shannara. I was actually kind of excited about this at first, I'm a long time fan of the start of the series (the first trilogy) and a few of the succeeding follow up series.

But when I read the news article saying they plan to skip the first book in the trilogy and start with Book 2 ( The Elfstones of Shannara), my BS alarm started ringing. I'm not going to get down on a series before seeing it, but this does have me feeling a bit cautious now.

I know MTV's target audience is teenagers with little understanding of depth of content but I do not want to see an adaptation of a series I loved turn into little more than a show about horny teenagers with no brains running around with swords. MTV needs to insure that if not exactly the tone of Game of Thrones, that the Shannara series at least aspire to reaching for great dramatic heights and not wallow in the muck and mire of most of their "original content." You can read more about the series HERE.

Sunday October 12th is the premiere date for the fifth season of The Walking Dead. And at the San Diego Comic-Con on Friday, they unveiled the 3 1/2 minute trailer for the season. It is freaking intensely awesome! You can see it below.


Music - My review of the new Judas Priest album Redeemer of Souls is now available HERE.



Meanwhile, there was a couple of new videos online this week that I thought you might want to check out. The first one is for the Overkill song "Bitter Pill". This is the second video from their new album White Devil Armory (which I received the deluxe edition of in the mail yesterday). I found it much better than the first song released, "The Armorist".



The second video is from blues guitarist Joe Bonamassa. It is the title track from his new album Different Shades of Blue (due out September 23rd) and quite honestly this is an amazing song. It was so good that I immediately put the album on my to buy list. I like the song so much I'm already considering adding it as a candidate for my song of the year.

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