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SEC Losses Are Coming
Category: NCAA
Tags: ALABAMA ARKANSAS AUBURN CFP COLLEGE FOOTBALL FLORIDA ST. GEORGIA LSU MISSISSIPPI ST. OLE MISS OREGON TEXAS A&M

There have been a lot of people who have looked at the top four – whether it was the CFP’s or the mock BCS’s or my objective computer ratings – and have gotten all upset that it contains three SEC West teams.

First of all, that kind of consensus tells you they’re wrong to complain; but secondly, people forget this isn’t an 11-team Big Ten with an 8-game schedule and no championship game. No one is just going to avoid another top team or two and coast to the playoff.

Every team in the SEC West has to play every other team. The remaining battles start on Saturday, when Auburn plays Ole Miss. I can pretty much guarantee you they won’t both stay ahead of Florida St. and Oregon if the Noles and Ducks both win this weekend (if you count Thursday night).

It is impossible for any combination of three SEC West teams to finish with one loss or fewer and therefore extremely unlikely that three of them would be in the top 4 at the end of the year.

Each of the four teams at the top of the SEC West right now has two games left against the other four. Auburn plays Ole Miss and Alabama; Ole Miss plays Auburn and Mississippi St.; Mississippi St. plays Alabama and Ole Miss; and Alabama plays Mississippi St. and Auburn.

That’s not to mention the fact that two of the teams (Mississippi St. and Ole Miss) still have to play Arkansas. I know the Hogs are winless in conference, but their only losses are in the SEC West and to the best team in the SEC East so far, Georgia. The only other loss from outside of this top group was in overtime to Texas A&M. Also, they put a scare into Alabama, so they can knock off one of these teams.

Speaking of Alabama, even though they got past Arkansas, they have to win in Tiger Stadium at night in about two weeks. They have done that a couple of times in recent years, but it wasn’t easy. They needed to win in overtime in 2008 (even though that was the worst team Miles has had at LSU and the Tide were undefeated at the time) and in the last minute in 2012.

Auburn has to play Georgia, which appears to be the top team in the East, also on the road.

Speaking of Georgia, they’re the one SEC team that I could even imagine causing three of the top four to be SEC. Mississippi St. and Alabama could each finish with one loss (if Alabama wins out and Mississippi St. wins out apart from the Alabama game).

Alabama could be consensus #1 and go into the SEC championship game against Georgia (who themselves could win their remaining games). Georgia could win the SEC. I’m not sure if a loss to another one-loss team in Game 13 of the season knocks a team down from #1 to #5, but if I were a one-loss Oregon team, for instance, I wouldn’t want to have to find out the answer to that question.

On the other hand, LSU’s only losses are to two top-5 teams and they’re way down at #19 despite beating the committee’s #4 team last week. So the committee probably wouldn’t even allow that scenario to happen.

Speaking of LSU, they could be a catalyst for the SEC having just one team in the top 4. The Tigers are not eliminated from the SEC West. Alabama and Ole Miss beat Mississippi St., and Auburn could beat Ole Miss but lose to Alabama and possibly one other team (Arkansas and Georgia are possibilities). There would be nothing particularly strange about any of those results.

If there were a 4-way tie without Auburn under the above scenario, LSU would win the tie. LSU and Ole Miss would both be 2-1 against other teams in the tie, and then the resulting 2-way tie would be broken by LSU’s win over Ole Miss. There could be a 5-way tie, but unless one of the losses is to another team (such as Arkansas or Georgia), everyone in the tie would then be 2-2 against the other teams. This tie would then be broken by best SEC East opponents, which right now would be won by Auburn with LSU a close second. LSU’s opponents would have to be better (and not even) because they would obviously lose a 2-way tie with Auburn.

Anyway, even if Georgia wins out, they already have one loss, so a loss in the SEC Championship Game would give them 2 losses. If the entire SEC has at least two losses, it would make sense to give the champion a spot in the top four and no one else.

It doesn’t take anything crazy though for the champion of the SEC could have one or no losses and everyone else could have 2 losses. This would also probably result in only that one team in the playoff.

So it seems nearly impossible for there to be three SEC teams in the playoffs, more likely than not for there to be two teams, and quite possibly just one team.

In short, if you’re really nervous about there being too many SEC teams…

miss st keep calm

Mississippi St. winning out will make sure everyone but Auburn finished with at least two losses. The chances are pretty good that Auburn will lose a second game anyway.

I, on the other hand, want to see LSU get as close as they can.

...For earlier access to my blogs, archives, etc., you can follow my wordpress site or my page on facebook.

Week 9 NFL Thursday Pick
Category: NFL
Tags: NFL Picks & Predictions

 

Thursday October 30

Saints (3-4) @ Panthers (3-4-1)

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte 8:25 (NFLN)

Favorite Panthers by 3

Last Week Saints defeated Packers 44-23, Panthers lost to Seahawks 13-9

Fast Fact Saints have 10 game road losing streak

The Thursday game retreat back to a single network format for the back half of the season . Drew Brees might have saved the Saints season with by lighting up the Packers in front of a frenzied Superdome crowd. Now the Saints have to figure how to win outside of Orleans Parish, but the Panthers are just the kind of moody enigma that you just cant figure. They gave up 38 to Green Bay and 37 to Cincy but held the Seahawks to just 13. I think Drew Brees broke out of his first half funk and has the tools to strafe a suspect Panthers defense. Im still trying to figure where the Cam Newton that made numerous dynamic runs and passes against the Bengals three weeks ago disappeared to. I don’t think he reappears this week

Pick-New Orleans

Talking Sports
Category: Daily Blog 2.0
Tags: SF Giants NFL. NBA Other Stuff

The San Francisco Giants ended the Cinderella story of the Kansas City Royals last night in a tight ball game. In ending the Royals Cinderella story they created a fairy tale of their own. 3 World Series Championships and 5 years. This is mainly due to a guy name Madison who has the word Bum in his last name. The guy is absolutely no Bum. Madison Bumgarner was lights out on 2 days rest and he was lights out two days again and he has been lights out in this entire playoffs.

This kid stepped up big time and took home the big prize, in one of the most enjoyable World Series in recent years. I openly admit I wanted the Royals to win it was their turn their destiny. I love great pitching and great pitching performances and this kid did the job. He put the Giants on his shoulders and carried them to the promise land. My question is why isn’t Bruce Bochy ever in conversation of the games best managers? The guy just continues to win. He sneaks in and takes care of business.. Congrats to Jake Peavy winning rings in back to back years.

The games are over now and the Giants are Champions once again. The nonsense begins and the speculation of free agency is upon us. We will get overly concerned of how much this team or that team is willing to pay for a #3 starter. We will be in shock of contract sizes and amounts. Deep down we all know if we had the talent we would take the money as well. It’s a short life in baseball you take the cash when you can and when somebody is willing to pay. We get blinded by all this stuff and all we yearn for is that April Day when all that matters is what happens between the lines. If next season was as good as this season while just maybe we will be in for a treat.

Brady vs Manning

Peyton is coming to Foxboro this week and if you think hard about this it could be the last regular season game between Manning and Brady. In what has been an awesome rivalry over the years.. The wheels have been put back on the Patriots bus and the Broncos seem to just do everything right with the exception of their scoreboard guy. This should be one helluva football game. If you had asked me a few weeks ago I would say this was going to be a blow out at Foxboro and not by the home team. I still think the Broncos win this one. But I also think the Patriots give them all they can handle. Yes. I won’t be surprised of the Patriots pull it either... There was some back up at the gates getting into Gillette Stadium Sunday stood in line for over an hour.

NBA

The NBA is underway. I know you don’t care. But I have one question there are only two guys in that league Koby and LeBron . What happened to all the other guys?

NHL

Pucks are being shot all over the place...as opposed to fingers.

LIL Warriors oops I mean Lakesiders

The boys played their most competitive game to date losing 3-1 but it was a solid performance . Up and down game and they had their chances couldn’t get a good bounce.

Lil Lanz much his dislike has been playing as a defenseman and maybe deep down he is embracing it because he made the play of his Hockey career Saturday. The boys were pressuring the other team and lil Lanz was anticipating the play coming up the leftside so he was more toward the middle of the blue line get ready to get  the puck got deflected to the rightside. Lil Lanz dives across the ice and gets his stick on it to keep it in the zone. Didn’t think the boy had it in him but damn it was a great play.

Zebra Tales

Saturday, I eneded up with my Alma  Matta in a JV game. Growing up that city was hard working Irish, Italian an Jewish families. It was a  big suburban High School about 5 miles outside Boston. As time has gone and the school has gotten smaller and now is referred to as an urban High school. I got their JV game on Saturday morning (Right after Lil Lanz’s Hockey Game) against one of their arch rivals  another high school who went through a similar transformation. The game was at the rivals home field. The rivals are a football powerhouse in Massachusetts. Kids on both teams all somehow know each other they would hit hard and than put a hand down to help the opponent up and ask if he was ok. That was cool. 

So there is a kid on My alma matta’s team keep in mind they were Blue and Gold  very similar to Notre Dame without the State House Golden Dome Helmets. Just plain gold.helmets. So this kid #12 is wearing this red ,green , and yellow socks with little you flags on the back of them. So a kid on the other team gets hurt.. #12 is sts on one knee and I’m standing next him and I ask him what’s up with your socks.(Sometimes I have to explore the mind of a 15/16 year old). He says man these are Robin Socks. The Quarterback is Batman and I’m his Robin . Sure enough there is the R for Robin on his socks. I look over at the QB he has Black and Gold socks on with a Batman emblem. Maybe they weren’t legal but this isn’t the NFL and this wasn’t a varsity game... it was just two high school kids having a little Fun. I called the kid Robin the rest of the game.

This game was fun we would set the ball and kids on both sides would say than you sir.or they would drop the ball instead of handing it to us and say sorry sir. The Varisity Coach was there from my Alma Matta and we as a crew went over to him to compliment his kids and his JV coaches for that matter.

O H Thursday
Category: FEATURED
Tags: NFL MLB Ditkah Brady Manning

Back at it preparing for Thursdays OH. I’ve got a large DD’s Ice Coffee and a back ache from bagging leaves on Saturday and a sore set of ribs from cleaning my chimney and fireplace

I wonder when I’ll learn...

That’s what sons are for!

Sunday the wife and I went to the early service at our church and then she went out to run errands and visit her sisters while I crawled up to the TV and watched Football from 10:30AM until, well I guess it was about 10:30 PM

I watch Detroit win a game in London that they should have lost, I watched Brady dismantle the hapless Bears and then Roethlisberger throw for 522. I followed that up with the Saints beating the Packers. What a day of football.

Rex Ryan’s job had been saved last week by playing the Pats tough in a 27-25 loss on Thursday and his team signing the great Persey Harvin on Friday, Rex is back on the coaching hot seat after being dismantled by the Buffalo Bills in new Jersey 43-23.

Jets GM John Idzik (also on the hot seat at the goodship J-E-T-S) said he won’t commit to Rexy beyond this season. Izdik said of himself,

“I need to get better at everything I do as a GM”

That’s true John but hardly possible. I ask you, as hard as they tried did:

- That leopard change his spots to stripes?

- Tim Tebow become a better passer?

- Did Heavy weight boxer Mike Tyson become a better husband

- And did quintessential bigot John Rocker become a volunteer at an inner city soup kitchen?

 

I think the conversation in NY is, what GM/HC tandem makes sense?

this action needs to happen fast, maybe not wait till the end of the season.

Maybe just maybe actually pay professionals to do the job. I know this is crazy but how about hire a proven GM and have him hire the HC...

Most importantly... how do they pull this off and not look like the…NY Jets

Because believe me;

Weeb Ubank,

Bruce Coslet,

Herm Edwards

or Rich Kotite are not walking thru that door.

 

NFL milestones

Tom Brady played his 100th regular season home game and now has a record in those games of 87-13.

Brady has closed to within 267 yards of Bronco great John Elway with the Bronco’s next up for the Pats on Sunday.

 

Demarco Murray has rushed for 1054 yards in 8 games a new NFL mark that he adds to each week. He currently leads #2 rusher Arian Foster (766), by 288 yards

 

Ben Roethlisberger passed for 522 yards and 6 TD’s on Sunday. Ben becomes the only NFL QB to have two 500+ yard passing games in history.

 

If the Season ended today the NFL playoffs would look like this

AFC

1. Denver 6-1 and the first bye

2. Patriots 6-2 and the second bye

3. Cincinnati 4-2-1

4. Indianapolis 5-3

5. San Diego 5-3

6. Buffalo 5-3

Just out side Baltimore and Pittsburgh both 5-3

 

NFC

1. Arizona 6-1 and the first bye

2. Detroit 6-2 and the second bye

3. Dallas 6-2

4. Carolina 3-4-1

5. Philadelphia 5-3

6. Green Bay 5-3

Just out side San Fran and Seattle both 4-3

In case you live under a rock you know Denver (6-1)vs

New England (6-2)game of the week

AKA

Manning vs Brady episode 16

 

With Peyton Manning passing Bret Farve in the career TD pass stat category of endless stats the conversation around the office and bowling lanes has been again:

Who’s better Brady or Manning.

We do this every year, it is a ridiculous argument. Both are great, both are HOF bound, arguments can be made and supported for each being the best of all time. I won’t engage in a wordy argument…I still have Joe Montana at the top of the totem pole of great NFL QB’s

I could go on and give you the Tale of the tape with Manning and Brady and point out what you can finds out in multiple places this week, TD’s playoff wins, yards and hot wives…so I’ll leave that to others and just say

Manning/ Brady

          …even steven

This weekends game will be all hyped all the time but once kickoff at 4:25 PM Sunday

 at frosty windy Gillette. Two good teams will square off in an epic battle for that #1 seed. Denver has been the better team, only loss was that OT loss to Seattle early on. The Pats started 2-2 with those ugly losses to Miami and KC before righting the ship (Offensive line) and watching vintage Brady reel off 4 straight impressive wins.

This game will be a rematch of last seasons AFC Championship game. Denver took that one in Denver 26-16. The Patriots won the regular season match up last November 34-31 in OT.

The Key to victory is the battle and chess game between Denver’s offensive maestro Peyton Manning and the Pats Defensive genius Bill Belichick.

Not to diminish Brady’s play or the Denver’s defense, Brady will put up points… this will come down to the Pats D stopping (or limiting) Manning and could come down to a game winning FG into the wind or with it on this cold November evening in Foxborough.

Oldharry’s pick…New England 31- Denver 28

 

World Series, San Fran and Kansas City all tied at 3-3 as of this writing and I won't have time to give you the final...but you don't depend on me for scores and facts anyway. Jake Peavy won a WS last year with the Red Sox couldn't get out of the 2nd inning in game six in a 10-0 loss to KC.

After enjoying the traditional duck boat prade in Boston, Southern boy Peavy bought a duck boat and brought it back to the Alabama homestead and put it in his personal pond. If San Fran wins he says he's buying a trolly car.

and maybe put some tracts around that pond.

Jake Peavy and his duck boat at home

 

The DITKAH’s stayed atop the league standings by beating the second place team at the position night matchup. I love handicap leagues, they clearly out bowled us but once you add those Hc’s in we win 6 of 8 points and remain on top with a 48-16 record. Eat a couple of sauages and drink some beers guys...

That's all for this week, don't forget to fall back one hour this weekend and don't miss Lanz to my right!

Week 9 College Football Rankings 2014
Category: NCAA
Tags: ALABAMA AUBURN BOISE ST. CFP COLORADO ST. FLORIDA ST. LSU MARSHALL MICHIGAN ST. MISSISSIPPI ST. NEBRASKA OLE MISS OREGON West Virginia

’m going to do things a little differently this week. To avoid confusion, I’m omitting last week’s rankings from the chart (I will discuss movement of teams in the discussion below). I’m listing my top 25 in order and to the right, I’m first listing the college football playoff top 25, followed by a mock BCS (I’ll just call it BCS from now on since there is no “real” BCS ranking anymore) ranking.

There are 36 teams that got at least some level of points under this approximated BCS system, so I’ll mention those who aren’t in my top 25 afterward.

The BCS formula can’t be completely replicated because there is no longer a Harris poll, and one of the computer systems (Massey) no longer lists ratings that comply with BCS rules, which included a ban on any consideration for margin of victory. I think I’ve made a pretty good approximation by using the AP poll and Massey’s “normal” ratings.

At least we can all agree on #1.

At least we can all agree on #1.

My Top 25
Rank/team/CFP/BCS

1 Miss. St. 1 , 1
2 Ole Miss 4 , 6
3 Auburn 3 , 4
4 Florida St. 2 , 2
5 Alabama 6 , 3
6 Oregon 5 , 5
7 LSU 19 , 13
8 Nebraska 15 , 17
9 Marshall — , 23
10 Mich. St. 8 , 8
11 Notre Dame 10 , 7
12 Georgia 11 , 9
13 Ohio St. 16 , 15
14 UCLA 22 , 24
15 Arizona 12 , 16
16 Colo. St. — , (27)
17 TCU 7 , 11
18 Kansas St. 9 , 10
19 Arizona St. 14 , 12
20 Clemson 21 , 20
boise-state-logo
21 Boise St. — , (31)
22 Baylor 13 , 14
23 Oklahoma 18 , 19
24 Duke 24 , 25
WVU
25 W. Virginia 20 , 21

Out of my top 25: (11) Minnesota, (21) USC

My full list of FBS teams

These are all other teams that would have received some level of points in the BCS system (same format as above; if they’re completely unranked, they’re omitted):

26. Missouri –, 29
27. Ga. Tech –, 34
28. Minnesota –, 33
29. USC –, 28
30. Louisville 25, 35
31. East Carolina 23, 22
34. Wisconsin –. 30
36. Texas A&M –, 26
38. Stanford –, 32
40. Okla. St. –, 36

Explanation and future rankings

I don’t have time for too much editorializing, but before seeing these I already thought it was an oversight not to have a system that was at least partially objective. I’m not going to judge the whole thing on one rankings list, but based on what I see here, I would have preferred to keep something like the BCS formula and pick the top four from that.

I know people who don’t understand how my system works won’t be happy with these. Last week, Ole Miss was technically #1, but I just didn’t rank them as such on my blog because I wanted to see if they would beat LSU before taking that step. I’m glad I made that choice.

Anyway, the question remains: how do they only lose one spot? I even thought I might have made a mistake, but I’ll explain.

The first thing I wanted to mention is they’re actually #4, behind Auburn and Florida St. (who have had two byes apiece) if you divide the overall rating by playing weeks.

It also helps that Ole Miss started out a large distance over #3. A normal distance from one team to the next is about 0.02. Ole Miss was 0.12 ahead of last week’s (computer) #3, Florida St. Losing to LSU only subtracts 0.09 from Ole Miss’s score. Ole Miss still goes from 0.04 ahead of Mississippi St. to 0.14 behind. For context, in last week’s ratings, 0.14 was approximately the distance between #6 Oregon and #16 LSU. There just aren’t teams between the two in this case.

Just as an aside, this week LSU was only 0.04 short of the Ducks.

With Florida St.’s bye week (most teams lose at least one spot in a bye week), Ole Miss was able to stay ahead and Auburn was able to pass them up. I understand one may object to two one-loss teams being ahead of Florida St., but at the end of last regular season there was just one, and at the end of this year there will likely be one. Someone has to lose Auburn-Ole Miss next week. It’s not guaranteed Mississippi St. will get past Alabama and Ole Miss. Also, someone has to lose between Alabama and Auburn. Auburn also has to play Georgia. So there are plenty of future opportunities on here for Florida St. to move back up.

Even if Ole Miss beats Auburn next week, they will then have a lull in points. They play Presbyterian College the following week, followed by a bye. Florida St.’s opponents of Louisville, Virginia, and U. Miami should pick them up a bit relative to Ole Miss.

Alabama plays LSU and Mississippi St. on the 8th and 15th, respectively, but next week they have a bye week, and on the 22nd they play Western Carolina (while Florida St. will play Boston College that week).

Once again, Auburn is a potential one-loss team that Florida St. may have trouble catching. Florida St. could be no better than third if both Auburn and Mississippi St. win out. Auburn would have a bye week during the championships in that scenario, but a win over Georgia to go along with the SEC West wins would still be difficult to overcome. If South Carolina and Kansas St. win the rest of their games, Auburn would have a very large number of points from those as well.

My computer ratings are a lot more fluid than the polls. I’ll give a couple of examples.

When I had Alabama ahead of Auburn last week, that clearly did not mean that if both won they’d remain in the same positions. The teams are basically in a race. If you’re ahead in a race and neither you nor your opponent fall down, you’re not guaranteed to finish ahead.

Also, I said that teams playing tough opponents can pass up Marshall. Even though LSU was 9 spots behind, they did just that with the win over Ole Miss. Granted, many teams would have to win two games instead of one to make that distance, but it’s not as difficult to move up as it would be in the polls. Nebraska was 7 spots behind Marshall and also passed up the Herd by beating Rutgers.

Marshall has a bye next week so will most likely be passed up by even more teams. Michigan St. is also idle, but then Sparty will have a good chance the next week against the Buckeyes.
In addition to Kansas St., it’s also helped the SEC West that Boise St. (beaten by Ole Miss) and West Virginia (beaten by Alabama) have continued to move up. Both are now in the top 25. Wisconsin (beaten by LSU) is one of the next 10 teams out.

Also, SEC West teams have now swept three of the top five SEC East teams, Kentucky, Florida, and South Carolina. Georgia has the only win against the SEC West by any team in college football from outside of the SEC West, but the Bulldogs will play Auburn in a couple of weeks. Missouri has yet to play an SEC West team. Not that it helps much, but Tennessee was also swept by the SEC West, and Vanderbilt lost one and has one to play (against Miss. St.).

The top five teams of the SEC West are still undefeated against all outsiders. As mentioned, there are some really quality wins over those outsiders. LSU is the only one of the five who has lost twice within the group, but that’s about to change with the Auburn-Ole Miss game.

Earlier rankings:
Preseason
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Week 8

I almost forgot to mention I’m now on twitter @TheBayouBlogger

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