NFL SCHEDULE – WEEK 11

Thursday, November 15

Dolphins (4-5) @  Bills (3-6)      

Ralph Wilson Stadium; Orchard, Park, NY 8:20 (NFLN)

Favorite Bills by 3

Last Week Dolphins lost to Titans 37-3, Bills lost to Patriots 37-31

Fast Fact The Dolphins have not scored a touchdown in its last six quarters

The Dolphins got housed in their own crib by the Titans (the Titans???) and their offense has hit a dangerous lull. The Bills are the most confusing team in the AFC, they have yet to play complete game in a few weeks. The offense shows up when the defense is AWOL, then the defense comes to ball when the offense is MIA…make sense? No? Neither does this matchup of long time divisional rivals, flip a coin and go with the home team in the cold night in Western New York.

Pick-Buffalo

The rest of the Picks will post tomorrow

A decent week by your humble scribe, though there were a couple I wish I could have taken back (mention the Titans pick to me and you might get a knuckle sandwich) But aside from the surprises here and there (No one saw Doug Martin having that monster day...no you didnt!) everything dropped pretty much as I called it. Much earlier than last week, for your perusal consumption, review and approval are this weeks picks. Odds being provided by bodog.net for entertainment and comparison purposes only. I say that to keep from getting any backlash from the gamblers out there that bet the lines and want to look for me, you are on your own with the no-neck bookie enforcers if you get took.

BYE WEEK – Arizona (4-5); Cleveland (2-7); Green Bay (6-3); Washington (3-6).

Sunday, November 11

Falcons  (8-0) @ Saints (3-5)

Mercedes-Benz Superdome,  New Orleans  1:00 (FOX)

Favorite Falcons by 3

Last Week Falcons defeated Cowboys 19-13, Saints defeated Eagles 28-13

Fast Fact The Falcons are the 15th team since the NFL schedule was expanded to 16 games in 1978 to start 8-0

Tosay the very least the Falcons are ummm...flying high. Their workmanlike win over the Cowboys showed many pundits that they can grind out wins that while not aesthetically pleasing are wins nonetheless. They are facing the Saints who have gotten off the 0-4 mat and are still very much a dangerous squad. This game screams trap as this is rareifed air for the Birds. Drew Brees is throwing a ton of passes and I know the Saints defense is nothing short of putrid, I just have that gut feeling that the Falcons are way overdue for a flat game. I think its here. 

Pick-New Orleans (Upset of the Week)           

Bills (3-5) @ Patriots (5-3) 

Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, MA 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Bills lost to Texans 21-9, Patriots were on a bye

Last Week  Patriots by 11

Fast Fact The Patriots have won 11 straight meetings in Foxboro against the Bills.

The Pats rested and refreshed after a London style beatdown of the Rams in Week 8 return home to face a disappointing Bills team who's offense is MIA and defense is playing way below expectations. The Pats may not be the conferences glamour team this year but they are still the divisions resident bully and the Bills are getting a phobia about playing Foxboro...but can you blame them?

Pick- New England (Lock of the Week)             

Broncos (5-3) @ Panthers (2-6)

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Broncos by 4½

Last Week  Broncos defeated Bengals 31-23, Panthers defeated Redskins 21-13

Fast Fact This is only the second time that these teams have faced each other in Charlotte.      

The Broncos make a rare trip to Tobacco road to face the Panthers who are as tough a cat to figure as any. While Im not going to say Peyton Manning is in beast mode, he is rounding back into the form that we have grown so accustomed to over the years and the Broncos are playing well because of it. On the other sideline, Cam Newton shows flashes of his brilliant rookie year but they have been just that flashes. This might be the best defense the Broncos have faced outside of the Texans, but I have the feeling Manning will do just enough to get the win

PIck-Denver     

Lions (4-4)  @ Vikings  (5-4)

Mall of America Field @ HHH Metrodome;  Minneapolis 1:00 (FOX)

Favorite No line due to C. Johnson injury status

Last Week Lions defeated Jaguars 31-14, Vikings lost to Seahawks 30-20

Fast Fact The Lions have not won back to back games in Minnesota since 1990-91

As most of you know your humble scribe is Vikings fan and watching this team week after week can be painful, aside from the resurgent resplendant running of Adrian Peterson, on the offensive side the Vikings are not very good. This puts way too much pressure on a decent defense that has to be on the field too long. A strong offense like the Lions is not what they need to see. Though their offense is a bit weakened with the questionable status of Calvin Johnson. I know betting on the Vikings offense is dicey at best, but Im not sold on the Lions on the road. I know Im gonna regret it but...

Pick-Minnesota            

NY Giants (6-3)  @ Bengals (3-5)

Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati 1:00 (FOX)

Favorite Giants by 4½

Last Week Giants lost to Steelers 24-20, Bengals lost to Broncos 31-23

Fast Fact The home team has won every matchup  

The Giants were cruising along against the Steelers when their offense went in to hibernation in the 4th. The Bengals are turning back into the same reliable hot mess that have been before. Im thinking the G-Men will sit back wait for the inevitable Bengals implosion and pounce. Eli Manning likely got some crib notes from his brother after he torched the Bengals D for three scores. This wont be pretty if you are a Bengals fan.

Pick-New York Giants       

Raiders (3-5) @ Ravens (6-2) 

M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Ravens by 9

Last Week   Ravens defeated Browns 25-15, Raiders lost to Buccaneers 42-32

Fast Fact The Ravens have won 6 of 7 meetings against the Raiders but Raiders QB is 9-4 against the Ravens.  

The Raiders got run over, literally as rookie Doug Martin ran hog wild against them, and now they have to go cross country to face the rugged running of Ray Rice...That just smacks of a bad time. The Ravens arent winning pretty but they are winning. The west coast team coming east is usually dead meat and Im not budging from that one especially as bad as the Raiders played the last time they came east, im not getting suckered again.

Pick-Baltimore         

Chargers (4-4) @ Buccaneers (4-4)

Raymond James Stadium, Tampa  1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Buccaneers by 3

Last Week Chargers defeated Chiefs 31-13, Buccaneers defeated Raiders 42-32

Fast Fact Bucs rookie phenom RB Doug Martin became the first RB since 1940 to have three rushing TD's of 45+ yards in the same game.

Speaking of the hot Bucs runner he is fast making believers of a lot of people, your humble scribe included. The Chargers defense will present a decent challenge. Though like their west coast brethern are making a cross country flight to play an early game in the East. Im thinking that Martin will have another solid day running past the heavy legged Charger defense. Philip Rivers is trying like a scout but his offensive weapons are simply just not what they used to be.

Pick-Tampa Bay            

Titans (3-6) @ Dolphins (4-4)                                        

SunLife Stadium, Miami Gardens 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Dolphins by 6

Last Week Titans lost to Bears 51-20, Dolphins lost to Colts 23-20

Fast Fact After allowing a modest 317 last season the Titans have given up 308 in 9 games so far this season.

Titans owner Bud Adams apologized for the Titans horrid performance against the Bears in which it seems like everyone on the Bears defense was playing scoop and score. The Titans will have no respite against a Dolphins defense that plays tough and despite a couple close losses are playing every game full tilt. Ryan Tannehill has tp be the most overlooked rookie QB's but has been quietly putting up solid if unspectacular numbers. I dont trust the Titans hit or miss offense any further than the end of my nose. Im not buying them going in South FLA and getting a win.

Pick-Miami           

NY Jets (3-5) @ Seahawks (5-4)                                      

Century Link Field, Seattle 4:05 (CBS)

Favorite Seahawks by 6

Last Week Jets were on a bye, Seahawks defeated Vikings 30-20

Fast Fact Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has thrown for eight touchdowns and no interceptions at home with a solid 120.2 QB rating

Ther Jets have had better than a week to lick their collective wounds after nasty beating at home, the grinns and jeers from Jets head poobah Rex Ryan are getting old ral fast. The Jets go cross country to face a wildly inconsistent Seahawks squad that has a devil of a time staying out its own way in spite of the dymanic running of Mrshawn Lynch. This team is basic going on the growing pains of rookie QB Russell Wilson. Though it wouldnt surprise me to see the Jets confound everyone and steal an unlikely win in the Pacific Northwest, Im just not seeing it happen. CenturyLink field is not a place to steal a win.

Pick-Seattle           

Cowboys (3-5) @ Eagles (3-5)                            

Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia 4:25 (FOX)

Favorite Cowboys by 1½

Last Week Cowboys lost to Falcons 19-13, Eagles lost to Saints 28-13

Fast Fact This is the first time since 1990 that both teams come into the matchup with losing records

How far have these two teams fallen? Both desperate for a season boosting win, both with enigmatic underacheiveing quarterbacks, both with coaches under heavy fire. Expect to see both team lay it all out. Im leery of picking the Pokes for the simple reason is that they are so undependable to pick for or against. The Eagles are just as bad, with Michael Vick ducking and dodging onrushing lineman behind a porous line.   This is likely going to be an im going to regret this pick, (My homies Reg & Darrel will hear about it spades) but I will trust the Eagles can defend their house against the Pokes.

Pick-Philadelphia        

Rams (3-5) @  49ers (6-2)                         

Candlestick Park, San Francisco 4:25 FOX

Favorite 49ers by 11½ 

Last Week Both Teams were on a bye

Fast Fact The 49ers are allowing an NFL low 12.9 points per game.

The Niners are clicking on all cylinders while the Rams while showing marked improvement are still the Rams and can get housed at will. Witness the Pats London shellacking two weeks ago. This one could get ugly fast.

Pick-San Francisco             

Texans (7-1) @ Bears (7-1)

Soldier Field, Chicago  8:20 (NBC) 

Favorite Bears by 1

Last Week Texans defeated Bills 21-9, Bears defeated Titans 51-20

Fast Fact Since Lovie Smith became coach Bears lead the NFL in takeaways

Easily the marquee game of the week, the conferences best teams meet in the Windy City. The Bears defense is getting scary good and dont need Jay Cutler to put up herculean performances. While not a game manager, Cutler does what he needs to do,  has been limiting his tendency to make dumb mistakes and has been winning in spades, the same can be said for Houston where Matt Schaub, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson have been having decent seasons but nothing to really shout about, but that defense? Ohhhhh. The Texans lost Brian Cushing and didnt miss a step as J.J. Watt has been the defensive anchor. This will be a tight contest, but Im thinking the Bears are overdue for a klunker and the Texans are overdue for a chance to shine in primetime.

Pick-Houston            

Monday, November 12

Chiefs  (1-7)  @  Steelers  (5-3)

Heinz Field, Pittsburgh  8:30 (ESPN)

Favorite Steelers by 12½ 

Last Week Chiefs lost to Chargers 31-13, Steelers defeated Giants 24-20

Fast Fact The Chiefs are the first team since 1929 to have never held a lead in any of their first seven games in regulation.  

 Im sure that there will be a ref on standby waiting to cover the Chiefs up like a punchy boxer that has been beat on too much. The Steelers are rounding into their usual ready to roll in to playoff contention form, while the Chiefs are simply putrid. This is another one that ESPN is wondering, how did we get stuck with another clunker game.  

Pick-Pittsburgh       

Last Week 10-4 (lock correct, upset incorrect)

Overall: 81-51

Locks: 6-3

Upsets 3-6

The election is over and we can get back to more pressing questions like how is it that the Jags always seem to get multiple primetime dates. I wonder what Jacksonville, and St. Johns County have on Roger Goodell that they can get multiple prime time dates in spite of their unwatchable product. The odds are provided by bodog.net for comparison and entertainment purposes only. The rest of the picks will be sent to you a lot earlier than they were last week.  Look for them Friday morning or afternoon.
 
 
NFL SCHEDULE – WEEK 10
Thursday, November 8
 
Colts (5-3)  @ Jaguars (1-7)
Everbank Field,  Jacksonville 8:20 (NFLN)
Favorite Colts by 4½
Last Week Colts defeated Dolphins 23-20, Jaguars lost to Lions 31-14
Fast Fact The Jags single win was a road win at Indy which was the Colts only home loss
The Colts won a thriller at home against the Dolphins,  and QB Andrew Luck is making startling progress. His 433 passing yards broke a team rookie record that some nobody named Manning set in 1998. The Colts face a pathetic Jags team that has already developed the thousand yard stare. Without Maurice Jones-Drew their already puny offense is reduced to even more pathetic output. Im thinking that the Colts will continue to show marked improvement , and will slap around a weak Jags team to get revenge for a now early season puzzling loss.  though Im still trying to figure out how this cast of retreads, never beens and who are theys are winning…I know their inspirational coach is a big factor but its still a head scratcher (even if it’s a buzz cut to support Chuck “Strong” Pagano) The first and last games of the week are primetime snoozers.
Pick-Indianapolis

The Rest of Week Nine Picks submitted albeit right at the start of the early games for your perusal, review and approval. Odds are provided by bodog.net for entertainment and comparison purposes only. The Patriots (5-3), Rams (3-5), Jets (3-5) and Niners (6-2) have their bye this week.

Broncos (4-3) @ Bengals (3-4)

Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Broncos by 4

Last Week Broncos defeated Saints 34-14, Bengals were on a bye

Fast Fact Broncos QB Peyton Manning has thrown for 300 yards and 3 TD’s in four straight games, one shy of the record set by Steve Young

The Broncos are rounding nicely into form behind the arm and will of Peyton Manning who rifled the weak Saints defense 305 yards and 3 scores last week. He may find the sledding just as easy against a Bengals defense that seems to wilt in the face of good quarterbacks, coming off a bye week in which they had to think long and hard about how they got shredded by Big Ben and their bully nemesis Steelers. I see no real reason that the Bengals will be able to slow the diverse and sound Broncos offense down, much less stop them.

Pick-Denver

Ravens (5-2) @ Browns (2-6

Browns Stadium, Cleveland 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Ravens by 4

Last Week Ravens were on a bye; Browns defeated Chargers 7-6

Fast Fact Ravens QB Joe Flacco ishas a 106.6 QB rating at home, but only a 55.9 rating on the road.

The Ravens turn their sights on trying to figure out why no one is scared of their defense anymore, having a week to brood over a nasty thrashing by the Texans. The Browns stunned the Chargers at home behind a stout defensive effort and the rugged running of rookie Trent Richardson. The sledding gets entirely tougher as the Ravens defense while the Ravens offense should have no real trouble getting good gains against a weak Browns defense that in spite of shutting the Chargers down last week scares no one but themselves and their fans.

Pick-Baltimore

Dolphins (4-3) @ Colts (4-3)

Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianpolis 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Dolphins by 1

Last Week Dolphins defeated Jets 30-9, Colts defeated Texans 19-13

Fast Fact Colts rookie QB Andrew Luck needs one 300 yard passing game to tie Peyton Manning’s rookie record.

This is a battle of a pair of teams that have been a pleasant surprise. The Colts stunned many with a thrilling overtime win in Nashville, while the Dolphins went to Gotham and smashed the Jets  in every which way. A battle of phenom rookie QB’s Ryan Tannehill is still questionable and Andrew Luck is proving that he is very much worth the draft pick and looks to be the cornerstone of the franchise for the next decade or so. The question is who gets the win? This is a coin toss game at best, Ill take the home team only because they are at home and the status of Tannehilll hampers the Dolphins

Pick-Indianapolis

Lions (3-4) @ Jaguars (1-6)

Everbank Field, Jacksonville 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Lions by 5½

Last Week Lions defeated Seahwaks 28-24, Jaguars lost to Packers 24-15

Fast Fact The Lions have 22 drops in 7 games, the most in the NFL

The Lions battled the Seahawks to the end and pulled out a thriller, the Jags are just a mess though they hung tough with the Packers at Lambeau. The Lions have a better offensive balance and their defense will have no problem shutting down the one dimensional Jags offense who don’t have that much dimension with Blaine Gabbert. No rushing game without MJD? No real chance.

Pick-Detroit

Cardinals (4-4) vs Packers (5-3)

Lambeau Field, Green Bay 1:00 (FOX)

Favorite Packers by 10½

Last Week Cardinals lost to 49ers 24-3, Packers defeated Jags 24-15

Fast Fact The Cardinals only had 7 yards rushing last Monday, their lowest game total in 59 years.

The Cards got shut down and embarrassed at home in prime time and are slowly coming apart after a strong start, meanwhile the Pack are looking stronger and stronger following a decimation of the Jags. Aaron Rodgers will have scads of time to pick apart the weak Cards defense and if are you waiting Kevin Skelton and John Kolb, or is it John Skelton and Kevin Kolb to have a breakout day, they wont get one against the solid and sound Packers defense.

Pick-Green Bay

Panthers (1-6) @ Redskins (3-5)

FedEx Field; Landover, MD 1:00 (FOX)

Favorite Redskins by 3½

Last Week Panthers lost to Bears 23-22, Redskins lost to Steelers 27-12

Fast Fact The Panthers have won three of the last four matchups.

The battle of phenom quarterbacks past and present. RGIII is looking like he may have more staying power though Cam Newton did play capably in a tough loss last to the Bears. Newton though seems that he is making strides that will win games. Newton? Not so much. The Panthers have regressed badly and asking them to win in a tough road venue like FedEx Field is asking too much

Pick-Washington

Bills (3-4) @ Texans (6-1)

Reliant Stadium, Houston 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Texans by 10½

Last Week Both teams were on a bye

Fast Fact The Texans lead the NFL with 35.4 rushing attempts per game.

The Texans are looking more and more like the AFC bully and the Bills are not the type of team that is equipped to stop this team on the offense and don’t have the weapons to keep their defense honest. J.J. Watt is filling in nicely for the injured Brian Cushing and if he is able to roam freely and cause havoc, the Bills will be in trouble. The Texans at home are tough to pick against.

Pick-Houston

Bears (6-1) @ Titans (3-5)

LP Field, Nashville 1:00 (FOX)

Favorite Bears by 4

Last Week Bears defeated Panthers 23-22, Titans lost to Colts 19-16

Fast Fact The Bears five game winning streak is their third in three years.

The Bears are the quietest, most criticized 6-1 team that Ive ever seen. The laconic Jay Cutler wont be fronting any national ad campaign. Heck you cant even get him to say much of anything but he is getting the job done and getting the wins his team needs. The Titans on the other hand are a frustrating bunch capabale of winning but seem to lack the wherewithal to close the deal, witness their loss against the Colts where they had numerous opps to salt the game away in regulation and OT but failed to seal the deal. The Titans play tough at home and this looks like it could be a trap game for the Bears. I should know better but…

Pick-Tennessee (Upset of the Week)

Vikings (5-3) @ Seahawks (4-4)

CenturyLink Field, Seattle 4:05 (FOX)

Favorite Seahawks by 4½

Last Week Vikings lost to Buccaneers 36-17, Seahawks lost to Lions 28-24

Fast Fact The game features the NFL’s top two rushers in Marshawn Lynch (775) and  Adrian Peterson (757)

The Vikes regressed badly in a lackluster game last Thursday, letting the Bucs run wild against them and their offense turning badly stagnant. With a strong runner in MarShawn Lynch upcoming, the Vikes will be in serious trouble in a nasty road venue if Lynch is allowed to run wild again. I would hope to be wrong but I aside from the running of Adrian Peterson the Vikes offense is nothing to talk about especially with Christian Ponder looking more and more lost by the play. Its sad when a rookie B in Russell Wilson is the more dynamic choice at quarterback. I hope Im wrong but I don’t have faith in the Vikes on the road.

Pick- Seattle

Buccaneers  (3-4) @  Raiders (3-4)

o.Co Stadium, Oakland 4:05 (FOX)

Favorite Raiders by 1

Last Week Buccaneers defeated Vikings 36-17, Raiders defeated Chiefs 26-16

Fast Fact The Raiders have won five straight when RB Darren McFadden rushes for better than 100 yards

The Bucs found a solid runner in Doug Martin, and rolled to a surprisingly easy win in Minnesota. There was a Carson Palmer sighting and he stayed extra clean in beating the Chiefs. Both these teams are hard to figure because of their wild inconsistency.  I think the key will be who’s running game will breakthrough. Im going to regret this but Im going with the home team here.

Pick-Oakland

Steelers (4-3) @ Giants (6-2)

MetLife Stadium; East Rutherford, NJ 4:25 (CBS)

Favorite Giants by 3½

Last Week Steelers defeated Redskins 27-12, Giants defeated Cowboys 29-24

Fast Fact This matchup featured two quarterbacks who have won four of the past eight Super Bowls

The Steelers methodically wore down a young Redskins squad in a rainy quagmire, while the G-Men raced out to a big lead, squandered it, then held on to win. The Giants are a team that is showing itself to be the NFL’s best while the Steelers look to be rebounding back from a poor start. The Steelers are not the best team on the road, game in Cincy not withstanding and the Giants are probably the most complete team that the Steelers will face this season and I don’t that they have the tools to not get worn down by a rugged Giants offense and sound defense that can wander off at times but is still top notch.

Pick-New York Giants

Cowboys (3-4) @ Falcons (7-0)

Georgia Dome, Atlanta 8:20 (NBC)

Favorite Falcons by 4

Last Week Cowboys lost to Giants 29-24; Falcons defeated Eagles 30-17

Fast Fact The Cowboys have lost their last 7 Sunday Night appearances

The Pokes rallied to make it a game but came an errant hand landing from stunning the G-Men, the Falcons toyed with the Eagles and blasted them. I think the media is so in love with making the Pokes an elite team they are chomping at the bit to call this an upset, Im not buying it all. The Pokes have no real running game and against a solid Falcons defense that is not a good recipe. The Falcons are solid with a good running game and a great passing game. The grinning, jeering Rex Ryan may be off this week, but twin brother Rob, the Cowboys defensive coordinator,  is picking up the slack by shooting off his mouth by saying that he guarantees that the Pokes will win. Ryan shares the family trait of letting his mouth write checks that his team has no hope of cashing.  The Pokes don’t have the tools to keep up and the NFL’s most unlikely unbeaten team will stay that way.

Pick-Atlanta (Lock of the week)

Monday November 5

Eagles (3-4) @ Saints (2-5)

Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans 8:30 (ESPN)

Favorite Saints by 3½

Last Week Eagles lost to Falcons 30-17, Saints lost to Broncos 34-14

Fast Fact The Saints are the first team since 1950 to allow 400 or more yards in seven straight games.

The Saints got housed in Denver and return home to face a struggling Eagles squad, Michael Vick is playing like he has no clue at times and this is a steep drop off from the exciting QB in years past. Im banking on Drew Brees being able to put up the points and that Vick wont be able to light up the Saints defense enough to pull out the win.

Pick-New Orleans

Last Week: 9-5 (Lock correct, Upset incorrect)

Overall:  71-47

Locks: 5-3

Upsets: 3-5

Thursday, November 1

Chiefs (1-6) @ Chargers (3-4)

Qualcomm Stadium San Diego, 8:20 NFLN

Favorite Chargers by 8

Last Week Chiefs lost to Raiders 26-16, Chargers lost to Browns

Fast Fact The Chiefs have yet to lead any game in regulation. Their lone win came in OT.

The Chargers are sinking fast, getting zapped by the lowly Browns coming off their bye as they were the latest team to befall the West Coast team going east jinx. Their offense has scored all of 6 points in the last six quarters and if it was any other teams than the punchless Chiefs coming to town I’d predict another lackluster performance, but the Chiefs have just as many problems on both sides of the ball. They let Carson Palmer riddle them for a pair of TD’s and never was under any kind of pressure. If that happens tonight with Philip Rivers it could get ugly fast. On the other hand, if the Chargers dawdle or fall behind, Norv Turner could get run…during the game.

Pick-San Diego