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Remember, the upsets never happen? Well don’t tell that to Wake Forest and Mizzou, two teams who now are seriously sweating their tourney chances after embarrassing losses to supposedly outclassed teams in their respective conference tourneys. This post will cover the games up to 8p EST Friday, with another post to cover the Saturday games and the final Spec sheet with who I think will make the tournament.
Atlantic Coast
Conference Class-Power
Locks: Duke, Maryland, Clemson
Playing Their Way In Florida State, Georgia Tech
Playing Their Way Out: Wake Forest, Virginia Tech
Skinny on the ACC: Duke is more or less yawning their way through this, Georgia Tech and Florida State are safe. Wake Forest and Virginia Tech are in all kinds of trouble as both took an ill-timed loss to Miami, I have reduced the number of teams coming out of this conference as I’m not sold on Virginia Tech making it with their weak numbers.
Atlantic Coast Conference Championships: Mar 11-14; Greensboro Coliseum; Greensboro, NC
Projected Bids: 5
Atlantic Ten
Conference Class-Mid Major
Lock: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Playing their way in: Dayton, Rhode Island
The A-10 Spec is: Temple is totally safe, and the Billikens are out. Rhode Island has played their way back in and if the Flyers hang on for the upset, they are still in good shape for a bid, but may need to get to the A-10 finals. Xavier is safe win or lose, but Richmond had better not lose to lowly UMass.
Atlantic 10 Conference Championship: March 12-14 Boardwalk Hall; Atlantic City, NJ
Projected Bids: 4
Big East
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown, Pitt, Marquette, Louisville
Playing Their Way In Notre Dame
Big East Skinny: What little chance the Bearcats had of making the tourney ended with DeSean Butler’s buzzer beating bank shot. Syracuse may still get a #1 seed but the committee will likely punish them for their opening game loss albeit to Georgetown and send them west. If the Mountaineers win the Big East tourney I think they not Duke gets a #1 seed. I think that the Irish are safe, but getting to the finals wouldn’t hurt at all.
Big East Championship Tournament: Mar 9-13 Madison Square Garden, New York City
Projected bids: 8
Big Ten
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Illinois
Playing their way In: Minnesota
The word on the Big Ten is: Illinois outslugged Wisconsin and I think that’s enough to get them in. Minnesota is still on the fence but still needs to win a couple more to make it in. Ohio State is still angling for a #1 seed but needed an answered prayer to dodge a pesky Michigan team that is going nowhere but home.
Big Ten Championships: Mar 11-14 Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Projected Bids: 5
Big 12
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Baylor
Playing Their Way In Oklahoma State
Hopin & Wishin’ Missouri
Skinny from the heartland: Mizzou is still safe for the time being but had better hope that a mutt team like Miami or Houston doesnt steal a bid or the Tigers may be on the outs. Kansas is trying to give away its rightful #1 seed but should be good regardless.
Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship: Mar 10-13 Sprint Center Kansas City, Mo
Projected Bids: 7
Colonial
Conference Class-Small
In: Old Dominion
Colonial Spec: Old Dominion will be a handful for any team that they face in the first round. This is the only team coming out of this conference
Colonial Athletic Association Champions: Old Dominion
Projected Bids: 1
Conference USA
Conference Class-Major
Lock: UTEP
Hoping and Wishin’: UAB, Memphis
Oh Say Can You C-USA Spec: Both UAB and Memphis took damaging losses in their C-USA tourney openers and unless UTEP loses in a Saturday morning finale, there is only one team coming out of this league.
Conference USA Championships: Mar 10-13 Bank of Oklahoma Center Tulsa, OK
Projected Bids: 1
Horizon
Conference Class-Mid Major
In: Butler
Spec on The Horizon: Butler smashed Wright State to win the Horizon title and is in line for a high seed. Why do I get the feeling that the selection committee will give Butler the shaft (again)and either put them against another mid major or give them an 8 seed to keep them away from the sweet 16?
Horizon League Champions: Butler
Projected Bids: 1
Ivy
Conference Class-Small
In: Cornell
Spec on the Ivy Vine: Cornell gets the first guaranteed invite as they clinched the Ivy Group title Friday, they will be the only team coming out of this conference
Ivy Group Champion: Cornell
Projected Bids: 1
Missouri Valley
Conference Class-Mid Major
In: Northern Iowa
Hoping & Wishin’ Wichita State
Missouri Valley Skinny: It’s a sweet repeat for the Panthers who used a steady second half surge to hold off the Shockers. The big boy conferences breathe a bit easier; this is likely a one bid league.
Missouri Valley Mens Basketball Tournament Champions: Northern Iowa
Projected Bids: 1
Mountain West
Conference Class-Major
Lock: BYU, New Mexico, UNLV, San Diego St
Spec from the Mountains: The Aztecs tried to give away their bid, but survived a nail biter over Colorado State. I think that all four teams that are left in the MWC tourney are good to go.
Conoco Mountain West Championship Mar 9-13 Thomas & Mack Center Las Vegas
Projected Bids: 4
Pacific 10
Conference Class-Power
Lock: California
Playing Their Way In Washington
Playing Their Way Out: Arizona State
Spec from the left coast: Cal has done nothing to damage their chances, but Arizona State is pretty much finished after getting beaten by Stanford. As long as Washington doesn’t stumble tonight they will get that 2nd bid from this league.
Pacific Life Pac-10 Championships: Mar 10-13 Staples Center, Los Angeles
Projected Bids: 2
Southeastern
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Kentucky , Vanderbilt , Tennessee
Playing Their Way In Florida , Mississippi St .
Spec is Down South: With the number of teams taking bad losses, the SEC benefits greatly. I now have both the Gators and Bulldogs both making the tourney now, so their matchup tonight is not a de facto play-in game.
SEC Championship Mar 11-14, Sommet Center Nashville
Projected Bids: 5
Western Athletic
Conference Class- Major
Lock: Utah State
Playing Their Way Out: New Mexico State , La. Tech
Spec on the WAC: This might be a one bid, because even though the Utah State Aggies have 22 wins and are leading the WAC, their numbers are so-so at best. If the New Mexico State Aggies or La. Tech steals the bid, Utah State could be on the outs.
Western Athletic Conference Championships: Mar 11-13 Lawlor Events Center; Reno, NV
Projected Bids: 1
West Coast
Conference Class- Mid Major
In: St. Mary’s
Lock: Gonzaga
West Coast Spec: The big boy conferences are cursing St. Mary’s, their stunning rout of Gonzaga means that they won’t have to hope and wish for a bid. That also means that the Bulldogs will take an at-large bid off the table, you are out of your mind if you think that Gonzaga is getting left out of the tournament.
West Coast Conference Champions: St. Mary’s
Projected Bids: 2
There are others in the mix to be sure. The champions from the following conferences get an automatic bid (projected winners in parentheses/actual winners in bold ) : Amer. East (Vermont) , Atlantic Sun (Belmont/East Tennessee State) , Big South (Coastal Carolina/Winthrop), Big Sky (Northern Colorado/ Montana) , Big West (Pacific), MAC (Akron) , MAAC (Siena), MEAC (Morgan State), Northeast (Quinnipiac/ Robert Morris ), Ohio Valley (Murray St.), Patriot (Lehigh), Southern (Appalachian State/ Wofford ), Southland (Sam Houston State), Sun Belt (North Texas), Summit (Oakland), and SWAC (Arkansas-Pine Bluff)
Conference Breakdown
ACC-5
A-Ten -4
Big East-8
Big Ten-5
Big XII-7
C-USA-1
Colonial-1
Horizon-1
Ivy-1
Missouri Valley-1
Mountain West-4
Pac-10-2
SEC-5
WAC-1
WCC-2
Small Conferences-17
Total-65
Keep in mind that this is just spec, these are merely projections and we haven't even brought up the possibility of upsets. But those never happen, right?
Next Spec Sheet March 13
Cheers from up here in the Cheap Seats!
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Before I get into the spec today, today is my daughter Jasmyne's 2nd Birthday...my my how time flies.
All is pretty quiet for today’s update, though I have updated some of the info on the smaller conference winners. I was deeply disappointed that Quinnipiac lost in the NEC final and the "Nippers" were denied their first NCAA bid That makes my smaller conference projection that much more scattershot. More updates will be posted tomorrow when the real moving and shaking gets done today.
Atlantic Coast
Conference Class-Power
Locks: Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland, Clemson
Playing Their Way In Florida State. Virginia Tech
Playing Their Way Out: Georgia Tech
Skinny on the ACC: If Georgia Tech can beat UNC for the third time this year, they should be safe but given the inconsistent play of both teams nothing is guaranteed. Clemson & Florida State really has to just avoid taking a loss to not have to worry about their tourney chances.
Atlantic Coast Conference Championships: Mar 11-14; Greensboro Coliseum; Greensboro, NC
Projected Bids: 6
Atlantic Ten
Conference Class-Mid Major
Lock: Temple , Xavier, Richmond
Playing their way out: Saint Louis, Dayton, Rhode Island
The A-10 Spec is: Temple, X and Richmond need only to win their opening round games in Atlantic City to feel totally safe. If Saint Louis gets to the A-10 semis they will get that 4th seed. Charlotte got beat Tuesday and is finished. The Billikens, Flyers and Rams need to get another win to improve their chances. But I only have four teams coming out of this conference so something has to give.
Atlantic 10 Conference Championship: March 12-14 Boardwalk Hall; Atlantic City, NJ
Projected Bids: 4
Big East
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Syracuse , Villanova , West Virginia , Georgetown , Pitt, Marquette , Louisville
Playing Their Way In Cincy, Notre Dame
Big East Skinny: Notre Dame is likely going having snuffed out any chances that Seton Hall once had, Syracuse might have cost itself a top seed with its fall from ahead loss to G-Town. Cincy continues to be the lop-eared mutt in the tourney, bullying Louisville on the boards to send the Cards home early, though Im still thinking that if they knock off West Virginia that they will get an invite.
Big East Championship Tournament: Mar 9-13 Madison Square Garden, New York City
Projected bids: 8
Big Ten
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Michigan State , Purdue , Wisconsin , Ohio State
Playing their way In: Illinois
Playing Their Way Out: Minnesota
The word on the Big Ten is: Ive taken some heat recently about my uncertainty about Illinois, I will give them their due IF they beat Wisconsin…but that’s not a given. Minnesota is still on the list but needs to get all the way to Sunday to get a real shot at earning a berth.
Big Ten Championships: Mar 11-14 Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Projected Bids: 4
Big 12
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Kansas , Texas , Kansas State , Texas A&M, Baylor
Playing Their Way In Oklahoma State
Hopin & Wishin’ Missouri
Skinny from the heartland: I had 7 teams coming out here, but suddenly Mizzou’s once safe status is in jeopardy after taking a nasty beating from Nebraska.
Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship: Mar 10-13 Sprint Center Kansas City, Mo
Projected Bids: 7
Colonial
Conference Class-Small
In: Old Dominion
Colonial Spec: Old Dominion will be a handful for any team that they face in the first round. This is the only team coming out of this conference
Colonial Athletic Association Champions: Old Dominion
Projected Bids: 1
Conference USA
Conference Class-Major
Lock: UTEP
Hoping and Wishin’: Marshall , UAB, Memphis
Oh Say Can You C-USA Spec: With UNI winning the MVC im shifting numbers in projections. Im liking Memphis making a hard charge down the stretch to stay on UTEP’s heels. If the Tigers get to Saturday and the finals, win or lose I see them getting a bid. UAB is pretty much in the same boat so you may see a virtual play-in game for a bid in the C-USA semifinals if UAB and Memphis.
Conference USA Championships: Mar 10-13 Bank of Oklahoma Center Tulsa, OK
Projected Bids: 2
Horizon
Conference Class-Mid Major
In: Butler
Spec on The Horizon: Butler smashed Wright State to win the Horizon title and is in line for a high seed. Why do I get the feeling that the selection committee will give Butler the shaft (again)and either put them against another mid major or give them an 8 seed to keep them away from the sweet 16?
Horizon League Champions: Butler
Projected Bids: 1
Ivy
Conference Class-Small
In: Cornell
Spec on the Ivy Vine: Cornell gets the first guaranteed invite as they clinched the Ivy Group title Friday, they will be the only team coming out of this conference
Ivy Group Champion: Cornell
Projected Bids: 1
Missouri Valley
Conference Class-Mid Major
In: Northern Iowa
Hoping & Wishin’ Wichita State
Missouri Valley Skinny: It’s a sweet repeat for the Panthers who used a steady second half surge to hold off the Shockers. The big boy conferences breathe a bit easier; this is likely a one bid league.
Missouri Valley Mens Basketball Tournament Champions: Northern Iowa
Projected Bids: 1
Mountain West
Conference Class-Major
Lock: BYU, New Mexico
Playing Their Way In UNLV, San Diego St
Spec from the Mountains: I still have 4 teams coming out of this deep conference. Though the Aztecs really need to get to the MWC semis to feel safe about their chances. As long as UNLV doesn't take a first round pratfall they will get their invite.
Conoco Mountain West Championship Mar 9-13 Thomas & Mack Center Las Vegas
Projected Bids: 4
Pacific 10
Conference Class-Power
Lock: California
Playing Their Way In Arizona State
Playing Their Way Out: Washington
Spec from the left coast: Cal is the top dog here, but the Pac-10 tourney is wide open. I can see a couple teams coming out but that’s about it here. Im projecting Cal and Arizona State netting bids, and while Washington has the chops may need to get to the semis or the finals to get a real shot.
Pacific Life Pac-10 Championships: Mar 10-13 Staples Center, Los Angeles
Projected Bids: 2
Southeastern
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Kentucky , Vanderbilt , Tennessee
Playing Their Way In Florida , Mississippi St .
Spec is Down South: Florida blew a chance to solidify their tourney chances as they fell at Kentucky. The Gators may need to get to the SEC semis to feel really good about their chances. If the Gators fall in the SEC 1st round or lose to Mississippi State in the SEC quarters, they might be on the wrong side of the cut line.
SEC Championship Mar 11-14, Sommet Center Nashville
Projected Bids: 4
Western Athletic
Conference Class- Major
Lock: Utah State
Playing Their Way Out: New Mexico State , La. Tech
Spec on the WAC: This might be a one bid, because even though the Utah State Aggies have 22 wins and are leading the WAC, their numbers are so-so at best. If the New Mexico State Aggies or La. Tech steals the bid, Utah State could be on the outs.
Western Athletic Conference Championships: Mar 11-13 Lawlor Events Center; Reno, NV
Projected Bids: 1
West Coast
Conference Class- Mid Major
In: St. Mary’s
Lock: Gonzaga
West Coast Spec: The big boy conferences are cursing St. Mary’s, their stunning rout of Gonzaga means that they won’t have to hope and wish for a bid. That also means that the Bulldogs will take an at-large bid off the table, you are out of your mind if you think that Gonzaga is getting left out of the tournament.
West Coast Conference Basketball Champions: St. Mary’s
Projected Bids: 2
There are others in the mix to be sure. The champions from the following conferences get an automatic bid (projected winners in parentheses/actual winners in bold ) : Amer. East (Vermont) , Atlantic Sun (Belmont/East Tennessee State) , Big South (Coastal Carolina/Winthrop), Big Sky (Northern Colorado/ Montana) , Big West (Pacific), MAC (Kent State) , MAAC (Siena), MEAC (Morgan State), Northeast (Quinnipiac/ Robert Morris ), Ohio Valley (Murray St.), Patriot (Lehigh), Southern (Appalachian State/ Wofford ), Southland (Sam Houston State), Sun Belt (North Texas), Summit (Oakland), and SWAC (Jackson State)
Conference Breakdown
ACC-6
A-Ten -4
Big East-8
Big Ten-4
Big XII-7
C-USA-2
Colonial-1
Horizon-1
Ivy-1
Missouri Valley-1
Mountain West-4
Pac-10-2
SEC-4
WAC-3
WCC-2
Small Conferences-17
Total-65
Keep in mind that this is just spec, these are merely projections and we haven't even brought up the possibility of upsets. But those never happen, right?
Next Spec Sheet March 12
Cheers from up here in the Cheap Seats!
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More automatic bids have been earned in the last two days, the big boy conferences are happy that only Gonzaga was the only mid-major to lose in their conference tourney, and take an at-large berth out of the mix. There will only be a couple of smaller conference bids going out today.
Atlantic Coast
Conference Class-Power
Locks: Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland, Clemson
Playing Their Way In Florida State. Virginia Tech
Playing Their Way Out: Georgia Tech
Skinny on the ACC: Duke gets the top seed and after brutally housing North Carolina Saturday is in no danger of missing the tourney, and are shooting for a #1 seed. Wake is tottering badly but still is in line for a bid providing that they don’t lose to Miami or badly lose to Virginia Tech. Georgia Tech has really stumbled badly and if they lose to UNC in the ACC opening round they might get the boot. I only have 6 teams coming out of this conference, not 7 as some would want you to believe.
Atlantic Coast Conference Championships: Mar 11-14; Greensboro Coliseum; Greensboro, NC
Projected Bids: 6
Atlantic Ten
Conference Class-Mid Major
Lock: Temple , Xavier, Richmond
Playing their way out: Saint Louis, Dayton, Rhode Island
The A-10 Spec is: Temple, X and Richmond need only to win their opening round games in Atlantic City to feel totally safe. If Saint Louis gets to the A-10 semis they will get that 4th seed. Charlotte got beat Tuesday and is finished. The Billikens, Flyers and Rams need to get another win to improve their chances. But I only have four teams coming out of this conference so something has to give.
Atlantic 10 Conference Championship: March 12-14 Boardwalk Hall; Atlantic City, NJ
Projected Bids: 4
Big East
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Syracuse , Villanova , West Virginia , Georgetown , Pitt, Marquette , Louisville
Playing Their Way In Cincy, Notre Dame
Big East Skinny: UConn is out, getting housed by St. John’s was the brutal last straw. There is no way that the Huskies get an invite. The Bearcats are back on the list, having tried to play their way out but their numbers are still good enough to get them in but they need another win and beating Louisville might just be enough. Only Notre Dame is in any real trouble today, if they lose to Seton Hall, they will be out. The lock teams are safe, even if Louisville loses tonight I think they are going.
Big East Championship Tournament: Mar 9-13 Madison Square Garden, New York City
Projected bids: 8
Big Ten
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Michigan State , Purdue , Wisconsin , Ohio State
Playing their way In: Illinois
Playing Their Way Out: Minnesota
The word on the Big Ten is: The lock teams are just that. Illinois is fading fast and faces an interesting quartefinal rematch against a Wisconsin team that housed them in their own crib. If the Illini get another housing, they are not going anywhere but home for an NIT first round game. Minnesota is needing to win two games to even get back into the conversation.
Big Ten Championships: Mar 11-14 Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Projected Bids: 4
Big 12
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Kansas , Texas , Kansas State , Texas A&M, Baylor
Playing Their Way In Missouri , Oklahoma State
Skinny from the heartland: This conference is sending 7 teams...give me a good argument against any of the teams listed. Mizzou and Oklahoma St. have to only guard against a bad first round loss in Kansas City next week and they are good.
Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship: Mar 10-13 Sprint Center Kansas City, Mo
Projected Bids: 7
Colonial
Conference Class-Small
In: Old Dominion
Colonial Spec: Old Dominion will be a handful for any team that they face in the first round. This is the only team coming out of this conference
Colonial Athletic Association Champions: Old Dominion
Projected Bids: 1
Conference USA
Conference Class-Major
Lock: UTEP
Hoping and Wishin’: Marshall , UAB, Memphis
Oh Say Can You C-USA Spec: With UNI winning the MVC im shifting numbers in projections. Im liking Memphis making a hard charge down the stretch to stay on UTEP’s heels. If the Tigers get to Saturday and the finals, win or lose I see them getting a bid. UAB is pretty much in the same boat so you may see a virtual play-in game for a bid in the C-USA semifinals if UAB and Memphis.
Conference USA Championships: Mar 10-13 BOK Center Tulsa, OK
Projected Bids: 2
Horizon
Conference Class-Mid Major
In: Butler
Spec on The Horizon: Butler smashed Wright State to win the Horizon title and is in line for a high seed. Why do I get the feeling that the selection committee will give Butler the shaft (again)and either put them against another mid major or give them an 8 seed to keep them away from the sweet 16?
Horizon League Champions: Butler
Projected Bids: 1
Ivy
Conference Class-Small
In: Cornell
Spec on the Ivy Vine: Cornell gets the first guaranteed invite as they clinched the Ivy Group title Friday, they will be the only team coming out of this conference
Ivy Group Champion: Cornell
Projected Bids: 1
Missouri Valley
Conference Class-Mid Major
In: Northern Iowa
Hoping & Wishin’ Wichita State
Missouri Valley Skinny: It’s a sweet repeat for the Panthers who used a steady second half surge to hold off the Shockers. The big boy conferences breathe a bit easier, this is likely a one bid league.
Missouri Valley Mens Basketball Tournament Champions: Northern Iowa
Projected Bids: 1
Mountain West
Conference Class-Major
Lock: BYU, New Mexico
Playing Their Way In UNLV, San Diego St
Spec from the Mountains: I still have 4 teams coming out of this deep conference. Though the Aztecs really need to get to the MWC semis to feel safe about their chances. As long as UNLV doesn't take a first round pratfall they will get their invite.
Conoco Mountain West Championship Mar 9-13 Thomas & Mack Center Las Vegas
Projected Bids: 4
Pacific 10
Conference Class-Power
Lock: California
Playing Their Way In Arizona State
Playing Their Way Out: Washington
Spec from the left coast: Cal is the top dog here, but the Pac-10 tourney is wide open. I can see a couple teams coming out but that’s about it here. Im projecting Cal and Arizona State netting bids, and while Washington has the chops may need to get to the semis or the finals to get a real shot.
Pacific Life Pac-10 Championships: Mar 10-13 Staples Center, Los Angeles
Projected Bids: 2
Southeastern
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Kentucky , Vanderbilt , Tennessee
Playing Their Way In Florida , Mississippi St .
Spec is Down South: Florida blew a chance to solidify their tourney chances as they fell at Kentucky. The Gators may need to get to the SEC semis to feel really good about their chances. If the Gators fall in the SEC 1st round or lose to Mississippi State in the SEC quarters, they might be on the wrong side of the cut line.
SEC Championship Mar 11-14, Sommet Center Nashville
Projected Bids: 4
Western Athletic
Conference Class- Major
Lock: Utah State
Playing Their Way Out: New Mexico State , La. Tech
Spec on the WAC: This might be a one bid, because even though the Utah State Aggies have 22 wins and are leading the WAC, their numbers are so-so at best. If the New Mexico State Aggies or La. Tech steals the bid, Utah State could be on the outs.
Western Athletic Conference Championships: Mar 11-13 Lawlor Events Center; Reno, NV
Projected Bids: 1
West Coast
Conference Class- Mid Major
In: St. Mary’s
Lock: Gonzaga
West Coast Spec: The big boy conferences are cursing St. Mary’s, their stunning rout of Gonzaga means that they won’t have to hope and wish for a bid. That also means that the Bulldogs will take an at-large bid off the table, you are out of your mind if you think that Gonzaga is getting left out of the tournament.
West Coast Conference Basketball Champions: St. Mary’s
Projected Bids: 2
There are others in the mix to be sure. The champions from the following conferences get an automatic bid (projected winners in parentheses/actual winners in bold ) : Amer. East (Vermont) , Atlantic Sun (Belmont/East Tennessee State) , Big South (Coastal Carolina/Winthrop), Big Sky (Northern Colorado) , Big West (Pacific), MAC (Kent State) , MAAC (Siena), MEAC (Morgan State), Northeast (Quinnipiac), Ohio Valley (Murray St.), Patriot (Lehigh), Southern (Appalachian State/ Wofford ), Southland (Sam Houston State), Sun Belt (North Texas), Summit (Oakland), and SWAC (Jackson State)
Conference Breakdown
ACC-6
A-Ten -4
Big East-8
Big Ten-4
Big XII-7
C-USA-2
Colonial-1
Horizon-1
Ivy-1
Missouri Valley-1
Mountain West-4
Pac-10-2
SEC-4
WAC-3
WCC-2
Small Conferences-17
Total-65
Keep in mind that this is just spec, these are merely projections and we haven't even brought up the possibility of upsets. But those never happen, right?
Next Spec Sheet March 11
Cheers From Up here in the Cheap Seats
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Call it the calm before the storm, the Colonial Finals between Old Dominion and William & Mary and the West Coast final between Gonzaga and St. Mary’s is tonight. Then a host of smaller conference finals will be contested for the next couple days as the major conferences start their opening rounds. As Ive said before, this is a hoop junkies nirvana. This is without question the best sports week of the year. I know people talk about bowl games and the drama of the baseball playoffs and the NFL’s road to the Super Bowl but for the sheer volume of games and the taut drama. Nothing beats championship week. For the next seven days the wall to wall basketball cannot be matched. And think this is the prelude to the real tournament…whats not to love???
Atlantic Coast
Conference Class-Power
Locks: Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland, Clemson
Playing Their Way In Florida State. Virginia Tech
Playing Their Way Out: Georgia Tech
Skinny on the ACC: Duke gets the top seed and after brutally housing North Carolina Saturday is in no danger of missing the tourney, and are shooting for a #1 seed. Wake is tottering badly but still is in line for a bid providing that they don’t lose to Miami or badly lose to Virginia Tech. Georgia Tech has really stumbled badly and if they lose to UNC in the ACC opening round they might get the boot. I only have 6 teams coming out of this conference, not 7 as some would want you to believe.
Atlantic Coast Conference Championships: Mar 11-14; Greensboro Coliseum; Greensboro, NC
Projected Bids: 6
Atlantic Ten
Conference Class-Mid Major
Lock: Temple , Xavier, Richmond
Playing their way out: Saint Louis , Dayton , Rhode Island , Charlotte
The A-10 Spec is: Temple, X and Richmond need only to win their opening round games in Atlantic City to feel totally safe. If Saint Louis gets to the A-10 semis they will get that 4th seed. The Rams, Flyers and 49ers have really stumbled down the stretch and need to make some serious noise on the boardwalk to have a real shot. But 4 is the most I see coming out here.
Atlantic 10 Conference Championship: First Round tonight on Campus Sites, March 12-14 Boardwalk Hall; Atlantic City, NJ
Projected Bids: 4
Big East
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Syracuse , Villanova , West Virginia , Georgetown , Pitt, Marquette , Louisville
Playing Their Way In UConn, Notre Dame
Big East Skinny: Any questions that folks had about Louisville being tourney worthy evaporated as they knocked off the then top ranked Orange at an emotional closing of Freedom Hall. Im still looking at 9 teams coming out of this conference, but Im still real shaky on UConn & Notre Dame, if the Irish lose in their first game after earning a first round bye they won’t go. UConn faces an even steeper climb; they need to win at least two games to solidify their chances.
Big East Championship Tournament: Mar 9-13 Madison Square Garden, New York City
Projected bids: 9
Big Ten
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Michigan State , Purdue , Wisconsin , Ohio State
Playing their way In: Illinois
Playing Their Way Out: Minnesota
The word on the Big Ten is: The lock teams are just that. Illinois is fading fast and faces an interesting rematch against a Wisconsin team that housed them in their own crib. If the Illini get another housing, they are not going anywhere but home for an NIT first round game. Minnesota is needing to win two games to even get back into the conversation.
Big Ten Championships: Mar 11-14 Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Projected Bids: 4
Big 12
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Kansas , Texas , Kansas State , Texas A&M, Baylor
Playing Their Way In Missouri , Oklahoma State
Skinny from the heartland: This conference is sending 7 teams...give a good argument against any of the teams listed. Mizzou and Oklahoma St. have to only guard against a bad first round loss in Kansas City next week and they are good.
Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship: Mar 11-14 Sprint Center Kansas City, Mo
Projected Bids: 7
Colonial
Conference Class-Small
Playing Their Way In: Old Dominion, Northeastern, William & Mary
Colonial Spec: Im seeing only one team coming out of this conference, and Old Dominion is the favorite in the Colonial final. But William & Mary has the chops enough to knock off the Monarchs and steal the bid. This is the matchup that the hoop junkies love, two teams with one bid at stake.
Colonial Athletic Association Championship: William & Mary vs. Old Dominion 7p (ESPN)
Projected Bids: 1
Conference USA
Conference Class-Major
Lock: UTEP
Hoping and Wishin’: Marshall , UAB, Memphis
Oh Say Can You C-USA Spec: With UNI winning the MVC im shifting numbers in projections. Im liking Memphis making a hard charge down the stretch to stay on UTEP’s heels. If the Tigers get to Saturday and the finals, win or lose I see them getting a bid. UAB is pretty much in the same boat so you may see a virtual play-in game for a bid in the C-USA semifinals if UAB and Memphis.
Conference USA Championships: Mar 10-13 BOK Center Tulsa, OK
Projected Bids: 2
Horizon
Conference Class-Mid Major
Lock: Butler
Hoping & Wishing
Spec on The Horizon: Butler & Wright State will clash for the Horizon Title and the big boy conferences are hoping Butler makes it 20 straight conference wins with a title win. Butler will not be kept on the outside win or lose and are shooting for a possible three or four seed.
Speedway Horizon League Championship: Wright State at Butler
Projected Bids: 1
Ivy
Conference Class-Small
In: Cornell
Spec on the Ivy Vine: Cornell gets the first guaranteed invite as they clinched the Ivy Group title Friday, they will be the only team coming out of this conference
Ivy Group Champion: Cornell
Projected Bids: 1
Missouri Valley
Conference Class-Mid Major
In: Northern Iowa
Hoping & Wishin’ Wichita State
Missouri Valley Skinny: It’s a sweet repeat for the Panthers who used a steady second half surge to hold off the Shockers. The big boy conferences breathe a bit easier, this is likely a one bid league.
Missouri Valley Mens Basketball Tournament Champions: Northern Iowa
Projected Bids: 1
Mountain West
Conference Class-Major
Lock: BYU, New Mexico
Playing Their Way In UNLV, San Diego St
Spec from the Mountains: I still have 4 teams coming out of this deep conference. Though the Aztecs really need to get to the MWC semis to feel safe about their chances. As long as UNLV doesn't take a first round pratfall they will get their invite.
Conoco Mountain West Championship Mar 9-13 Thomas & Mack Center Las Vegas
Projected Bids: 4
Pacific 10
Conference Class-Power
Lock: California
Playing Their Way In Arizona State
Playing Their Way Out: Washington
Spec from the left coast: Cal is the top dog here, but the Pac-10 tourney is wide open. I can see a couple teams coming out but that’s about it here. Im projecting Cal and Arizona State netting bids, and while Washington has the chops may need to get to the semis or the finals to get a real shot.
Pacific Life Pac-10 Championships: Mar 10-13 Staples Center, Los Angeles
Projected Bids: 2
Southeastern
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Kentucky , Vanderbilt , Tennessee
Playing Their Way In Florida , Mississippi St .
Spec is Down South: Florida blew a chance to solidify their tourney chances as they fell at Kentucky. The Gators may need to get to the SEC semis to feel really good about their chances. If the Gators fall in the SEC 1st round or lose to Mississippi State in the SEC quarters, they might be on the wrong side of the cut line.
SEC Championship Mar 10-14, Sommet Center Nashville
Projected Bids: 4
Western Athletic
Conference Class- Major
Lock: Utah State
Playing Their Way Out: New Mexico State , La. Tech
Spec on the WAC: This might be a one bid, because even though the Utah State Aggies have 22 wins and are leading the WAC, their numbers are so-so at best. If the New Mexico State Aggies or La. Tech steals the bid, Utah State could be on the outs.
Western Athletic Conference Championships: Mar 11-13 Lawlor Events Center; Reno, NV
Projected Bids: 1
West Coast
Conference Class- Mid Major
Lock: Gonzaga
Playing Their Way out: St. Mary’s
West Coast Spec: The big boys conferences are rooting hard for Gonzaga, if St. Mary’s pulls the upset, the selection committee will not leave the 11th ranked Bulldogs on the sideline.
West Coast Conference Basketball Championship: St. Mary’s vs Gonzaga 9p Tonight (ESPN)
Projected Bids: 1
There are others in the mix to be sure. The champions from the following conferences get an automatic bid (projected winners in parentheses/actual winners in bold ) : Amer. East (Vermont) , Atlantic Sun (Belmont/East Tennessee State) , Big South (Coastal Carolina/Winthrop), Big Sky (Northern Colorado) , Big West (Pacific), MAC (Kent State) , MAAC (Siena), MEAC (Morgan State), Northeast (Quinnipiac), Ohio Valley (Murray St.), Patriot (Lehigh), Southern (Appalachian State), Southland (Sam Houston State), Sun Belt (North Texas), Summit (Oakland), and SWAC (Jackson State)
Conference Breakdown
ACC-6
A-Ten -4
Big East-9
Big Ten-4
Big XII-7
C-USA-2
Colonial-1
Horizon-1
Ivy-1
Missouri Valley-1
Mountain West-4
Pac-10-2
SEC-4
WAC-3
WCC-1
Small Conferences-17
Total-65
Keep in mind that this is just spec, these are merely projections and we haven't even brought up the possibility of upsets. But those never happen, right?
Next Spec Sheet Wednesday
Cheers From The Cheap Seats!
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The invites are starting to go out, Kent State and Cornell are the first teams to clinch automatic bids and now the games get more fast and furious. Most of the bigger conferences begin to fight it out for their invites and the intensity will ramp up. This is the beginning of the best week of the year in basketball. I will begin to list conference tourney dates and sites where applicable in lieu of key games.
Atlantic Coast
Conference Class-Power
Locks: Duke, Wake Forest , Maryland
Playing Their Way In Georgia Tech, Clemson , Florida State
Playing Their Way Out: Virginia Tech
Skinny on the ACC: Maryland is now the top dog in the ACC, having defeated Duke. Wake has faded badly and is now in real danger of playing their way out, they will need to win at least one game in the ACC tourney to be safe. Clemson on the other hand has worked their way to bulletproof status. Florida State is pretty much safe, but not quite bulletproof as long as they don’t take a stupid loss in the first round of the ACC tourney they should be good. Georgia Tech needs to win a couple games in the Greensboro and Virginia Tech needs to get to at least Saturday (ACC Semis). Im not real sold on six teams going but I sure won’t speculate that seven teams get in…don’t believe that hype.
Key Games: North Carolina at Duke Saturday 9p ESPN So what if this isnt the usual clash of the titans, its always a fun game to watch
Projected Bids: 6
Atlantic Ten
Conference Class-Mid Major
Lock: Temple , Xavier, Richmond
Playing their way out: Saint Louis , Dayton , Rhode Island , Charlotte
The A-10 Spec is: Suddenly the A-10 contenders thinned out in a hurry, Saint Louis and Charlotte are needing deep runs in the A-10 tourney now. Dayton blew a golden chance to really improve their profile but lost in Richmond . Rhode Island smashed Charlotte and looks more like that 4th team that could come out of this conference. Barring a bad loss between now and the A-10 semis, I like the Rams chances here
Key Games: Charlotte at Rhode Island Wednesday 7p(A-10 regional TV) Both these teams are desperate for a win and the loser all but needs to win the A-10 tourney to get an invite
Projected Bids: 4
Big East
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Syracuse , Villanova , West Virginia , Georgetown , Pitt, Marquette , Louisville
Playing Their Way In UConn, Notre Dame
Playing Their Way Out: Cincinnati
Big East Skinny: Im gonna take a flyer here and say that both Marquette and Louisville are safe. I think that they have done enough to warrant their inclusion as long as neither take bad first game losses in NYC I think that they are safe. I think UConn have are a bona fide tourney team, but Im not sure that Notre Dame is. But I do think that the selection committee will take them both. I wish that I could say the same about my alma mater, Cincinnati . The Bearcats keep getting chance after chance to get a statement win but continue to waste these chances and have all but toasted their chances at making the tourney
Key Game: Syracuse at Louisville Saturday 2p (ESPN) Louisville closes down historic Freedom Hall and looks to do it in style upsetting the top ranked Orange .
Projected bids: 9
Big Ten
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Michigan State , Purdue , Wisconsin , Ohio State
Playing their way In: Illinois
Playing Their Way Out: Minnesota
The word on the Big Ten is: The Bucks have clinched no worse than a share of the regular season crown, Michigan State needs only a win over Michigan to gain a share and Purdue can also claim a share of the Big Ten title with a win. Im still not sold on Illinois being a tourney team. They need not flame out in Indy early or they might get left on the wrong side of the cut line.
Big Ten Championships: Mar 11-14 Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Projected Bids: 4
Big 12
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Kansas , Texas , Kansas State , Texas A&M, Baylor
Playing Their Way In Missouri , Oklahoma State
Skinny from the heartland: This conference is sending 7 teams...give a good argument against any of the teams listed. Mizzou and Oklahoma St. have to only guard against a bad first round loss in Kansas City next week and they are good.
Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship: Mar 11-14 Sprint Center Kansas City, Mo
Projected Bids: 7
Colonial
Conference Class-Small
Playing Their Way In: Old Dominion, Northeastern, William & Mary
Colonial Spec: Its Old Dominions tourney to lose, but the CAA always has its share of thrillers , Northeastern is the one team that could steal a bid but they and William & Mary would need to get to the final to have a real shot.
Colonial Athletic Association Championship: March 5-8 Richmond Coliseum, Richmond VA
Projected Bids: 1
Conference USA
Conference Class-Major
Lock: UTEP
Playing Their Way In: Marshall , UAB, Memphis
Playing Their Way Out: Tulsa
Oh Say Can You C-USA Spec: UTEP may very well be the only team coming out of this conference though, if Memphis or UAB can steal the C-USA tourney, the selection committee will not leave the Miners home. But as of right now, I only have this as a one-bid conference
Conference USA Championships: Mar 10-13 BOK Center Tulsa, OK
Projected Bids: 1
Horizon
Conference Class-Mid Major
Lock: Butler
Spec on The Horizon: Butler completed an unbeaten league schedule and is the heavy favorite to win here, the big boy conferences want nothing to do with Butler but are rooting hard for them to win, as they have made more than enough bones to get an at-large if they get upset at Hinkle.
Speedway Horizon League Championship: Mar 2 First Round at Higher Seeded Campus Sites, Second Round March 5 at Hinkle Fieldhouse, Semifinals Mar 6th at Hinkle Fieldhouse, Finals at Higher Seed
Projected Bids: 1
Ivy
Conference Class-Small
Playing Their Way In: Cornell
Playing Their Way Out Princeton , Harvard
Spec on the Ivy Vine: Cornell gets the first guaranteed invite as they clinched the Ivy Group title Friday, they will be the only team coming out of this conference
Ivy Group Champion: Cornell
Projected Bids: 1
Missouri Valley
Conference Class-Mid Major
Lock: Northern Iowa
Playing Their Way In Wichita State
Playing Their Way Out: Illinois State
Missouri Valley Skinny: UNI won the regular season title outright and has the #1 seed, this makes them the team to beat. The Shockers and Redbirds are not to be taken lightly, they will be tough outs and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if they stole the title and the Panthers take an at-large bid.
State Farm Missouri Valley Mens Basketball Tournament aka “Arch Madness”: Mar 4-7 Scottrade Center , St. Louis
Projected Bids: 2
Mountain West
Conference Class-Major
Lock: BYU, New Mexico
Playing Their Way In UNLV, San Diego St
Spec from the Mountains: I still have 4 teams coming out of this deep conference. Though the Aztecs really need to get to the MWC semis to feel safe about their chances. As long as UNLV doesn't take a first round pratfall they will get their invite.
Conoco Mountain West Championship Mar 9-13 Thomas & Mack Center Las Vegas
Projected Bids: 4
Pacific 10
Conference Class-Power
Lock: California
Playing Their Way In Arizona State
Playing Their Way Out: Washington
Spec from the left coast: Suddenly the wonks started realizing that the Pac-10 while weaker than usual, is not a one bid league. Im hearing that suddenly Washington & Arizona State both are in line to snare bids. I'm not too sold on the Huskies just yet. As long as they don't take an early loss in LA, they will move up in stature. But we will hold off on giving the Pac-10 more than 2 bids just yet.
Pacific Life Pac-10 Championships: Mar 10-13 Staples Center, Los Angeles
Projected Bids: 2
Southeastern
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Kentucky , Vanderbilt , Tennessee
Playing Their Way In Florida , Mississippi St .
Playing Their Way Out: Ole Miss
Spec is Down South: Im still debating on who the 4th team coming from his conference will be. I can't be really sold on the Gators, Bulldogs or Rebels since they all have way too many flaws to be legit. But I'm sure that this conference sends 4 teams. Kentucky is a bona fide lock for a #1 seed.
SEC Championship Mar 10-14, Sommet Center Nashville
Projected Bids: 4
Western Athletic
Conference Class- Major
Lock: Utah State
Playing Their Way Out: New Mexico State , La. Tech
Spec on the WAC: This might be a one bid, because even though the Utah State Aggies have 22 wins and are leading the WAC, their numbers are so-so at best. If the New Mexico State Aggies or La. Tech steals the bid, Utah State could be on the outs.
Western Athletic Conference Championships: Mar 11-13 Lawlor Events Center; Reno, NV
Projected Bids: 1
West Coast
Conference Class- Mid Major
Lock: Gonzaga
Playing Their Way out: St. Mary’s
West Coast Spec: The Bulldogs are the team to beat here, and unless St. Mary’s gets to the final and puts a mammoth scare or beats Gonzaga, this is a one bid league.
West Coast Conference Basketball Championships: March 5-8 Orleans Arena, Las Vegas
Projected Bids: 1
There are others in the mix to be sure. The champions from the following conferences get an automatic bid (projected winners in parentheses/actual winners in bold ) : Amer. East (Vermont) , Atlantic Sun (Belmont) , Big South (Coastal Carolina), Big Sky (Northern Colorado) , Big West (Pacific), MAC (Akron/Kent State) , MAAC (Siena), MEAC (Morgan State), Northeast (Quinnipiac), Ohio Valley (Murray St.), Patriot (Lehigh), Southern (Charleston), Southland (Sam Houston State), Sun Belt (North Texas), Summit (Oakland), and SWAC (Jackson State)
Conference Breakdown
ACC-6
A-Ten -4
Big East-9
Big Ten-4
Big XII-7
C-USA-1
Colonial-1
Horizon-1
Ivy-1
Missouri Valley-1
Mountain West-4
Pac-10-2
SEC-4
WAC-3
WCC-1
Small Conferences-16
Total-65
Keep in mind that this is just spec, these are merely projections and we haven't even brought up the possibility of upsets. But those never happen, right?
Next Spec Sheet March 8 or 9
Cheers From The Cheap Seats!!!
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