The true mark of a good fantasy baseball manager isn’t just knowing where to pick the top players, but also knowing when to take a chance on a guy that will fly under the radar on draft day. Being prepared and knowing which players are due for comeback or breakout years are what make the difference between a good team and a winning team.

With that said, this series is intended to help you identify some of those sleepers. To kick things off, I wanted to spotlight one of the best pitchers of the last decade:

Johan Santana – SP – New York Mets

Santana has the distinction of being one of the best Rule 5 draftees of all-time. Taken in the Rule 5 draft by Florida from Houston in 1999, he was subsequently traded to Minnesota for Jared Camp. If that wasn’t a sweet enough deal for the Twins, the Marlins also threw cash in the deal. Santana would win two Cy Young awards for the Twins before being traded to the Mets in 2008. In three seasons with the Mets, Santana would pitch well, but injuries took their toll and he sat out 2011 working his way back from rotator cuff surgery.

The Good

There wasn’t a better pitcher in baseball from mid-2003 until 2008. Santana has impeccable control, averaging 3.55 strike-outs per every walk surrendered and has one of the best change-ups in all of baseball. Not an overpowering pitcher, he can nonetheless get the strike-out with an assortment of pitches, averaging close to 1 per inning for his career and lead the AL in the category from 2004-2006.

The Bad

Santana hasn’t pitched in the majors since September 2, 2010. He was making good strides in the minors in 2011, but the Mets performance last season ultimately decided that they wouldn’t risk him. While a move to the National League is generally perceived as a boost for pitchers, Santana’s strike-out and control numbers have declined each season in New York, but that can be attributed to the arm troubles he dealt with in both 2009 and 2010.

The Ugly

While Santana will enter 2012 fully recovered and ready to contribute, there is one overwhelming detriment that is hard to overlook; Santana will still be playing for the Mets. The Mets are in a complete retooling phase and the line-up behind Santana doesn’t look entirely promising. In a very tough and offensive National League East, this team could very well finish at the bottom of the standings

Best-Case Scenario

As discussed, Santana should be fully healthy entering the season, but he’ll still be eased into a full workload. He may well win 10 plus games and strike-out better than 150 for the Mets, but wishful fantasy owners will want him to get out of the gate fast and hope that that the Mets trade him as part of their rebuilding process. That may be difficult as Santana is 32 entering the season and due to make $49 million over the next two seasons with a club option for 2014 at $25 million. Not a lot of teams will take a chance on that contract without knowing that he is back to his Cy Young form.

Buy really low and hope for the best. May even be best to see him hit the waiver wire to start the season and then watch his first few starts before making the leap.

Sources:

-          Johan Santana, baseball-reference.com