Call it the calm before the storm, the Colonial Finals between Old Dominion and William & Mary and the West Coast final between Gonzaga and St. Mary’s is tonight. Then a host of smaller conference finals will be contested for the next couple days as the major conferences start their opening rounds. As Ive said before, this is a hoop junkies nirvana. This is without question the best sports week of the year. I know people talk about bowl games and the drama of the baseball playoffs and the NFL’s road to the Super Bowl but for the sheer volume of games and the taut drama. Nothing beats championship week. For the next seven days the wall to wall basketball cannot be matched. And think this is the prelude to the real tournament…whats not to love???

Atlantic Coast
Conference Class-Power
Locks: Duke, Wake Forest, Maryland, Clemson
Playing Their Way In Florida State. Virginia Tech
Playing Their Way Out: Georgia Tech
Skinny on the ACC: Duke gets the top seed and after brutally housing North Carolina Saturday is in no danger of missing the tourney, and are shooting for a #1 seed. Wake is tottering badly but still is in line for a bid providing that they don’t lose to Miami or badly lose to Virginia Tech. Georgia Tech has really stumbled badly and if they lose to UNC in the ACC opening round they might get the boot. I only have 6 teams coming out of this conference, not 7 as some would want you to believe.
Atlantic Coast Conference Championships: Mar 11-14; Greensboro Coliseum; Greensboro, NC
Projected Bids: 6

Atlantic Ten
Conference Class-Mid Major
Lock: Temple , Xavier, Richmond
Playing their way out: Saint Louis , Dayton , Rhode Island , Charlotte
The A-10 Spec is: Temple, X and Richmond need only to win their opening round games in Atlantic City to feel totally safe. If Saint Louis gets to the A-10 semis they will get that 4th seed. The Rams, Flyers and 49ers have really stumbled down the stretch and need to make some serious noise on the boardwalk to have a real shot. But 4 is the most I see coming out here.
Atlantic 10 Conference Championship: First Round tonight on Campus Sites, March 12-14 Boardwalk Hall; Atlantic City, NJ
Projected Bids: 4

Big East
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Syracuse , Villanova , West Virginia , Georgetown , Pitt, Marquette , Louisville
Playing Their Way In UConn, Notre Dame
Big East Skinny: Any questions that folks had about Louisville being tourney worthy evaporated as they knocked off the then top ranked Orange at an emotional closing of Freedom Hall. Im still looking at 9 teams coming out of this conference, but Im still real shaky on UConn & Notre Dame, if the Irish lose in their first game after earning a first round bye they won’t go. UConn faces an even steeper climb; they need to win at least two games to solidify their chances.
Big East Championship Tournament: Mar 9-13 Madison Square Garden, New York City
Projected bids: 9

Big Ten
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Michigan State , Purdue , Wisconsin , Ohio State
Playing their way In: Illinois
Playing Their Way Out: Minnesota
The word on the Big Ten is: The lock teams are just that. Illinois is fading fast and faces an interesting rematch against a Wisconsin team that housed them in their own crib. If the Illini get another housing, they are not going anywhere but home for an NIT first round game. Minnesota is needing to win two games to even get back into the conversation.
Big Ten Championships: Mar 11-14 Conseco Fieldhouse, Indianapolis
Projected Bids: 4

Big 12
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Kansas , Texas , Kansas State , Texas A&M, Baylor
Playing Their Way In Missouri , Oklahoma State
Skinny from the heartland: This conference is sending 7 teams...give a good argument against any of the teams listed. Mizzou and Oklahoma St. have to only guard against a bad first round loss in Kansas City next week and they are good.
Phillips 66 Big 12 Championship: Mar 11-14 Sprint Center Kansas City, Mo
Projected Bids: 7

Colonial
Conference Class-Small
Playing Their Way In: Old Dominion, Northeastern, William & Mary
Colonial Spec: Im seeing only one team coming out of this conference, and Old Dominion is the favorite in the Colonial final. But William & Mary has the chops enough to knock off the Monarchs and steal the bid. This is the matchup that the hoop junkies love, two teams with one bid at stake.
Colonial Athletic Association Championship: William & Mary vs. Old Dominion 7p (ESPN)
Projected Bids: 1




Conference USA
Conference Class-Major
Lock: UTEP
Hoping and Wishin’: Marshall , UAB, Memphis
Oh Say Can You C-USA Spec: With UNI winning the MVC im shifting numbers in projections. Im liking Memphis making a hard charge down the stretch to stay on UTEP’s heels. If the Tigers get to Saturday and the finals, win or lose I see them getting a bid. UAB is pretty much in the same boat so you may see a virtual play-in game for a bid in the C-USA semifinals if UAB and Memphis.
Conference USA Championships: Mar 10-13 BOK Center Tulsa, OK
Projected Bids: 2

Horizon
Conference Class-Mid Major
Lock: Butler
Hoping & Wishing
Spec on The Horizon: Butler & Wright State will clash for the Horizon Title and the big boy conferences are hoping Butler makes it 20 straight conference wins with a title win. Butler will not be kept on the outside win or lose and are shooting for a possible three or four seed.
Speedway Horizon League Championship: Wright State at Butler
Projected Bids: 1

Ivy
Conference Class-Small
In: Cornell
Spec on the Ivy Vine: Cornell gets the first guaranteed invite as they clinched the Ivy Group title Friday, they will be the only team coming out of this conference
Ivy Group Champion: Cornell
Projected Bids: 1


Missouri Valley
Conference Class-Mid Major
In: Northern Iowa
Hoping & Wishin’ Wichita State
Missouri Valley Skinny: It’s a sweet repeat for the Panthers who used a steady second half surge to hold off the Shockers. The big boy conferences breathe a bit easier, this is likely a one bid league.
Missouri Valley Mens Basketball Tournament Champions: Northern Iowa
Projected Bids: 1


Mountain West
Conference Class-Major
Lock: BYU, New Mexico
Playing Their Way In UNLV, San Diego St
Spec from the Mountains: I still have 4 teams coming out of this deep conference. Though the Aztecs really need to get to the MWC semis to feel safe about their chances. As long as UNLV doesn't take a first round pratfall they will get their invite.
Conoco Mountain West Championship Mar 9-13 Thomas & Mack Center Las Vegas
Projected Bids: 4


Pacific 10
Conference Class-Power
Lock: California
Playing Their Way In Arizona State
Playing Their Way Out: Washington
Spec from the left coast: Cal is the top dog here, but the Pac-10 tourney is wide open. I can see a couple teams coming out but that’s about it here. Im projecting Cal and Arizona State netting bids, and while Washington has the chops may need to get to the semis or the finals to get a real shot.
Pacific Life Pac-10 Championships: Mar 10-13 Staples Center, Los Angeles
Projected Bids: 2



Southeastern
Conference Class-Power
Lock: Kentucky , Vanderbilt , Tennessee
Playing Their Way In Florida , Mississippi St .
Spec is Down South: Florida blew a chance to solidify their tourney chances as they fell at Kentucky. The Gators may need to get to the SEC semis to feel really good about their chances. If the Gators fall in the SEC 1st round or lose to Mississippi State in the SEC quarters, they might be on the wrong side of the cut line.
SEC Championship Mar 10-14, Sommet Center Nashville
Projected Bids: 4


Western Athletic
Conference Class- Major
Lock: Utah State
Playing Their Way Out: New Mexico State , La. Tech
Spec on the WAC: This might be a one bid, because even though the Utah State Aggies have 22 wins and are leading the WAC, their numbers are so-so at best. If the New Mexico State Aggies or La. Tech steals the bid, Utah State could be on the outs.
Western Athletic Conference Championships: Mar 11-13 Lawlor Events Center; Reno, NV
Projected Bids: 1

West Coast
Conference Class- Mid Major
Lock: Gonzaga
Playing Their Way out: St. Mary’s
West Coast Spec: The big boys conferences are rooting hard for Gonzaga, if St. Mary’s pulls the upset, the selection committee will not leave the 11th ranked Bulldogs on the sideline.
West Coast Conference Basketball Championship: St. Mary’s vs Gonzaga 9p Tonight (ESPN)
Projected Bids: 1



There are others in the mix to be sure. The champions from the following conferences get an automatic bid (projected winners in parentheses/actual winners in bold ) : Amer. East (Vermont) , Atlantic Sun (Belmont/East Tennessee State) , Big South (Coastal Carolina/Winthrop), Big Sky (Northern Colorado) , Big West (Pacific), MAC (Kent State) , MAAC (Siena), MEAC (Morgan State), Northeast (Quinnipiac), Ohio Valley (Murray St.), Patriot (Lehigh), Southern (Appalachian State), Southland (Sam Houston State), Sun Belt (North Texas), Summit (Oakland), and SWAC (Jackson State)

Conference Breakdown
ACC-6
A-Ten -4
Big East-9
Big Ten-4
Big XII-7
C-USA-2
Colonial-1
Horizon-1
Ivy-1
Missouri Valley-1
Mountain West-4
Pac-10-2
SEC-4
WAC-3
WCC-1
Small Conferences-17
Total-65


Keep in mind that this is just spec, these are merely projections and we haven't even brought up the possibility of upsets. But those never happen, right?

Next Spec Sheet Wednesday
 

Cheers From The Cheap Seats!