Week 3 NFL Picks

I’m never one to grumble about a 13 win week, but those losses do irritate me. I mean I should have known better than to trust the reeling Bengals. Betting against mile high magic on teams that hasn’t won against in better than 20 years was foolish and a team in its stadium opener usually puts on a good show. Rather than continue to lament on my misses, let’s focus on this week and building on the momentum. There is an early game this week as the Jags make their annual London visit, this is the first of 3 games in Wembley this year and to accommodate their fans, they force the teams and broadcast into an early Sunday start and add to boot neither team gets a bye after their London trip. Presented for your review and perusal are this week’s picks. Odds are provided by ESPN and are for comparison and entertainment purposes only, which means you only have yourself to blame if you bet the lines and lose.

Sunday September 24

Ravens (2-0) vs Jaguars (1-1)

Wembley Stadium; London, England 9:30a (Yahoo/CBS)

Ravens by 2 ½

Last Week Ravens defeated Browns 24-10, Jaguars lost to Titans 37-17

Fast Fact This is the Ravens first trip to England, the Jags fifth

The Ravens are taking full advantage of a weak schedule and get a trip to London instead of Jacksonville to slap around the Jags. I was among the nonbelievers that said the Jags opening day rout of the Texans was a mirage and

Pick-Baltimore

Buccaneers (1-0) at Vikings (1-1)

US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis 1:00 (FOX)

Buccaneers by 2 ½

Last Week Buccaneers defeated Bears 29-7, Vikings lost to Steelers 26-9

Fast Fact Vikings QB Case Keenum is 2-0 vs Bucs, both starts were with the Rams

With Sam Bradford shelved again with a bum knee, the Vikes look to Case Keenum to keep their scattershot offense running. The Bucs defense isn’t the Steelers but they are a big play ball hawking type that cash in mistakes. Something keeps telling me that the Bucs aren’t that good and the Vikes aren’t that bad. Look for the Vikes to lean heavier on Dalvin Cook and grind out an ugly win.

Pick-Minnesota (Upset of the Week)

Broncos (2-0) at Bills (1-1)

New Era Field; Orchard Park, NY 1:00 (CBS)

Broncos by 3

Last Week Broncos defeated Cowboys 42-17, Bills lost Panthers 9-3

Fast Fact A meeting of a pair of original AFL teams, the Bills lead the series 20-16-1 but the Broncos have won four of the past six meetings

After running wild in week 1, the Bills ran smack into a real defense in Carolina and were shut down. The curve gets no easier as they host a tough Denver D that hung a serious beatdown on the Pokes. The fact that the Bronco defense held Zeke Elliott to 8 yards should give Shady McCoy serious pause. On the other hand the multifaceted Broncos offense should find the sledding easier with the Bills defense nicked up. Do I think Trevor Siemian is the next fab QB? No, but I think more highly him and the weapons at his disposal than I do Tyrod Taylor.

Pick-Denver

Steelers (2-0) at Bears (0-2)

Soldier Field, Chicago 1:00 (CBS

Favorite Steelers by 7 ½

Last Week Steelers defeated Vikings 26-9, Bears lost to Buccaneers 29-7

Fast Fact Steelers last win in Soldier Field was in 1995

The Steelers have had pretty easy road trip, a short jaunt to an annual beating of the Browns and close run to the Midway to slap around a punchless Bears defense. The Steelers can afford to bring LaVeon Bell slowly and against Bears offense that looks as clueless as the looks on John Fox’s face he should get plenty of chances.

Pick- Pittsburgh

Saints (0-2) at Panthers (2-0)

Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte 1:00 (FOX)

Panthers by 5 ½

Last Week Saints lost to Patriots 36-20, Panthers defeated Bills 9-3

Fast Fact The Panthers have not allowed a touchdown in either of their first two games, their 6 PA leads the league

No the Panthers defense isn’t THAT good, but they handled a pair of lesser teams with ease and now host a Saints team that is close to being on life support. Poor Drew Brees tries like a scout but all his wizardry can’t cover an atrocious defense that can’t cover a bed. Meanwhile, Cam Newton is trying to figure out his offense that is losing key components at an alarming rate. With Greg Olsen out for a few weeks, Newton’s options get more limited. Nonetheless, I think the Panthers have enough on the ball to run through the Saints porous defense.

Pick-Carolina

Falcons (2-0) at Lions (2-0)

Ford Field, Detroit 1:00 (FOX)

Falcons by 3

Last Week Falcons defeated Packers 34-23, Lions defeated Giants 24-10

Fast Fact Lions QB Matthew Stafford is tied for the league lead in TD passes with 6

This is a sneaky good matchup, the best of the early games. The Lions have quietly dominated both their games including a solid win in Gotham. The Falcons laid a stunning beatdown on the Packers to christen their new digs and look like their offense is as good as advertised. Matthew Stafford is looking early like he is living up to the big money the Lions paid him while Matty Ice is playing at his usual obscene levels. This is a tough, tough call. Stafford and Ryan can test defenses and can quick strike score at a moment’s notice. Their defenses are decent but I’m torn on who will get the better of them. Betting against the Falcons multiple times is coming back to haunt me. But it’s hard to bet against the home team, but if a team could win on the road Matty Ice and his crew win a shootout thriller.

Pick- Atlanta

Browns (0-2) at Colts (0-2)

Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis 1:00 (CBS)

Browns by 1 ½ (That’s not a misprint)

Last Week Browns lost to Ravens 24-10, Colts lost to Cardinals 16-13 in OT

Fast Fact The Browns have not won on the road in nearly two full seasons

The Browns are a super rare favorite in this game, what makes this doubly stunning is that they play highly unknown (to them) role of road favorite. The Browns have played capably in their first two games but are 0-2 and while the Colts took the Cards to OT they too are winless. Jacoby Brisett will get the starting nod as Andrew Luck continues to be out with a bum shoulder. Though this smells like a trap, I think the Browns are ready for a breakout win. The hapless hopeless Colts continue to flounder and the Browns offense should be able to grind out an ugly win

Pick- Cleveland

Texans (1-1) at Patriots (1-1)

Gillette Stadium; Foxboro, MA 1:00 (CBS)

Patriots by 14

Last Week Texans defeated Bengals 13-9, Patriots defeated Saints 36-20

Fast Fact Bad omen for Texan QB DeShaun Watson, rookie QB’s are 0-8 against the Pats in Foxboro facing Bill Belechick

DeShaun Watson made an impressive debut in a win against the Bengals, but facing the Pats in Foxboro is a much steeper learning curve. Tom Brady bounced back strong against Saints and I think is eager to put that puzzling loss to the Chiefs far in his rearview. The Texans defense is stout and will present a challenge but he will get his and show Watson that he still has a big jump from shredding collegiate defense to being at the top of the pro game.

Pick-New England (Lock of the Week)

Giants (0-2) at Eagles (1-1)

Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia 1:00 (FOX)

Eagles by 6

Last Week Giants lost to Lions 24-10. Eagles lost to Chiefs 27-20

Fast Fact A season after throwing a franchise record 607 passes, Eagles QB Carson Wentz has already thrown 85 passes a pace for 680 attempts

The Eagles split their two road games and head home to face their divisional rival. The G-Men looked lost in a Monday night home debacle. Is the clock ticking on Eli Manning or Ben McAdoo’s mcadont offense? The Eagles were tough at home last year and their defense is poised to give the G-Men’s inconsistent offense fits. I think the G-Men are nowhere close to ready to win on the road, especially in super hostile Philly where the home faithful would love nothing more than bury their rivals in an 0-3 hole

Pick-Philadelphia

Dolphins (1-0) vs Jets (0-2)

MetLife Stadium; East Rutherford, NJ 1:00 (CBS)

Favorite Dolphins by 6

Last Week Dolphins defeated Chargers 19-17, Jets lost to Raiders 45-20

Fast Fact With this game at MetLife Stadium, the Dolphins are the only team yet to play a home game, due to Hurricane Irma and a nasty schedule the Dolphins won’t be at home until October 8

After a pair of lackluster road losses, the Jets come home to Gotham and face a Dolphins team that tried every which way to give away their game in LA. Point blank, I still do not trust Jay Cutler. He gets a pass this week though. Against a weak Jets defense and offense that scares no one but their weary fan base, Cutler should be able to stay out of trouble here and get a fairly easy win

Pick-Miami

Seahawks (1-1) at Titans (1-1)

Nissan Stadium, Nashville 4:05 (FOX)

Favorite Titans by 2 ½

Last Week Seahawks defeated 49ers 12-9, Titans defeated Jaguars 37-17

Fast Fact The Titans win last win Jacksonville ended an 11 game road divisional losing streak

The Seahawks offense is close to non-existent; while scoring only 9 on the road wasn’t a big surprise only scoring 12 against the sorry Niners at home is a spot of bother here. The Titans defense isn’t world beaters but they’re solid enough to cause concern. Marcus Mariota is growing up fast but this is probably the best non divisional defense that hes faced in his brief pro career. This is more a toss up than one would think. I’ll gamble that the Titans can hold home serve here

Pick- Tennessee

Bengals (0-2) at Packers (1-1)

Lambeau Field, Green Bay 4:25 (CBS)

Packers by 9

Last Week Bengals lost to Texans 13-9, Packers lost to Falcons 34-23

Fast Fact Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has defeated all the NFL teams except the Bengals who he’s lost to in 2009 and 2013

The Bengals have had ten days to stew over why their offense is so non-existent and they get no quarter facing a solid Packers defense riled up over getting hammered in Atlanta. Aaron Rodgers has been playing pretty pedestrian and is way way overdue for one of those “Ya’ll must’ve forgot” type games. The Bengals defense has played decent but has had to be on the field too often to cover for its non-scoring offense. You give Rodgers that kind of time, its gonna get ugly. The Bengals burned me one too many times this year. I seriously doubt that they will find their way in Lambeau

Pick-Green Bay (Lock of the Week)

Chiefs (2-0) at Chargers (0-2)

StubHub Center; Carson, CA 4:25 (CBS)

Chiefs by 3

Last Week Chiefs defeated Eagles 27-20, Chargers lost to Dolphins 19-17

Fast Fact Chiefs coach Andy Reid, an LA native once competed nationally in the pass, punt kick contest as youth

The Chiefs have started strong with a pair of crisp efficient wins to start the season, face the hard luck chargers who do everything but close out wins. Their kicking game has let them down in both losses, something that has plagued this squad for years. The Chiefs are better on both sides of the ball though the Chargers are far from a pushover, I just can’t see the Chargers doing enough to pull this one out and their predilection to fold in the clutch will continue to dog them

Pick-Kansas City

Oakland (2-0) at Washington (2-0)

FedEx Field; Landover, MD 8:30 (NBC)

Raiders by 3

Last Week Raiders defeated Jets 45-20, Washington lost to defeated LA Rams 27-20

Fast Fact The Raiders 71 points leads the NFL after two weeks

The Raiders make a rare trip to the nation’s capital and are humming. While Washington has shown flashes of capability it might be asking a bit much to have them keep up with a Raiders offense that has come out of the box scoring points at a brisk clip. Is Marshawn Lynch the x factor that makes this a truly dangerous team? I’m not totally sure, but as long as Derek Carr remains healthy and upright, I see no real reason that the Raiders won’t shine in prime time.

Pick-Oakland

Monday September 25

Cowboys (1-1) at Cardinals (1-1)

University of Phoenix Stadium; Glendale, AZ 8:30 (ESPN)

Cowboys by 3

Last Week Cowboys lost to Broncos 42-17, Cardinals defeated Colts 16-13 in OT

Fast Fact After losing the first meeting in University of Phoenix Stadium, the Cards have won the last three meetings

The Cards come home after splitting a pair back east. The Pokes come in after getting housed by the Broncos in a game that wasn’t even as close as the 25 point rout suggests. I’m thinking that Zeke Elliott’s 8 yard, 9 carry effort was a fluky aberration not a portent of a larger issue. The Cards have a solid defense to be sure and will dare Dak Prescott to throw over them. Chris Johnson (is he still in this league?) will get the majority of the carries for the Cards with budding superstar David Johnson shelved but the questions linger. The Cards struggled with the super weak Colts and the Pokes are not as bad as last weeks rout would suggest. I look for Elliott to bounce back with a primo performance in primetime.

Pick-Dallas

Last Week: 13-3 (Lock and Upset Correct)

Overall: 22-10

Locks: 2-0

Upsets: 1-1